The contract-year player has become a hot commodity on fantasy draft day in just about all fantasy sports. The obvious thinking behind this strategy is that those players in their contract year will produce above expectations as they vie for that big pay day. However, is the philosophy behind this actuality or simply another misconception to aid fantasy owners in justifying their picks?
Looking back over the last couple of seasons, one player who has truly epitomized the concept of players booming in their contract year is Seattle 3B Adrian Beltre. Back in 2004 when he was with the Dodgers and in a contract year, Beltre put up a ridiculous fantasy stat line – .334 BA / 48 HR / 104 R / 121 RBI / .388 OBP / .629 SLG / 1.017 OPS. The following year, Beltre switched leagues and signed with the Mariners for a five-year $64 million deal. Prior to 2004, he had never batted over .290, driven in more than 85 runs or jacked more than 25 homers in a season. Yet, with some big dollars on the line, Beltre exploded in ’04 and gave fantasy owners just what the doctor ordered. Emphasizing the point even further, in his first three seasons with his new club (2005-2007), Beltre never came close to duplicating the tremendous numbers he compiled in his contract year.
In sharp contrast, we only need to look back one season to find a player who struggled mightily in his quest for a big pay day. Dodgers OF Andruw Jones entered the 2007 coming off of back-to-back stellar campaigns in the two previous years, in which he scored 95+ runs, hit 40+ homers and drove in 120+ baserunners in both ’05 and ’06. Then in a contract year, all signs pointed to some big production from Jones as he entered the ’07 season – and then he failed… miserably. In both counting categories and averages, Jones put up some of the worst numbers of his career last season. His batting average of .222 was his lowest ever, his 138 strikeouts was the most since ’01, the 83 runs he scored was the lowest total since ’97, and the 26 homers Jones hit was the second lowest output in the category in his 11-year career. We all know that his troubles have carried over into this season, however, the example of how Jones fell off in his contract year causes a lot of skepticism about whether or not the contract-year player holds any clout over a typical fantasy player projected to have a similar output.
Does drafting a contract-year player actually give you a leg up on your opponents? Guys like Andruw Jones can definitely leave those playing into this thinking with a sour taste in their mouths. Nevertheless, as was previously shown through the Beltre example, and supported by such players as Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand, Brett Boone and Javy Lopez in the past, gambling on contract-year players typically pays off. Sure, there are outside factors that play into this whole equation, as was the case with Hunter last season – reaching 600 AB for the first time in his career greatly helped his counting stats (posting career-bests in runs scored and RBI) – however, we must not lose sight of the fact that baseball is a business to these players, and they will do whatever it takes to maximize the money that they make.
With that in mind, a player like Yankees 1B/DH Jason Giambi came into this season (a contract year for him) probably in the best shape of his career. He had an amazing spring and looked destined to succeed in the ’08 season. Has he? Definitely not up to this point. Giambi is batting a mere .157 and struggling to find playing time, even as a designated hitter. And much like Giambi, Cleveland SP C.C. Sabathia, coming off of an incredible 2007 campaign, has struggled entering his ’08 contract year – posting a 1-5 record with a 7.51 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. The same can be said about Mets 1B Carlos Delgado.
But, wait… wasn’t the comment just made that putting fantasy stock in a contract-year player can pay off in the end? Yes. Of course, Giambi, Sabathia and Delgado can all rebound since there is a lot of baseball left to be played in 2008. Yet, let’s take a look at some of the other players who are in the final year of their contract this season:
Bobby Abreu, OF, NYY - .299 BA / 4 HR / 21 RBI / 15 R / 2 SB
Though his power numbers have declined over the past few seasons (largely due to injury and age catching up to him), Abreu is right in line with his career .300 BA and projects to post nearly 100 RBI this season.
Pat Burrell, OF, PHI - .313 BA / 9 HR / 30 RBI / 20 R
With SS Jimmy Rollins sidelined and 1B Ryan Howard struggling at the plate, Burrell has coupled with 2B Chase Utley to take the reins of the club in Philadelphia. Right now, Burrell is on pace to post career-bests in both homeruns and RBIs, and is also projected to cross the plate nearly 100 times.
Carl Crawford, OF, TB (club option for ’09) - .281 BA / 2 HR / 19 RBI / 26 R / 8 SB
This season, Crawford is playing somewhat of a different role in Tampa, as his speed numbers (stolen bases and extra base hits) are off the pace of career norms. However, projecting out for the rest of the season, 100 RBI and 125 runs scored are very feasible numbers, which would give Crawford career-bests in both categories.
Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD - .366 BA / 5 HR / 16 RBI / 34 R / 8 SB
Typically a slow starter, Furcal has busted out of the gate this season. If he stays headed down this path, big things are in store for Furcal in 2008, as he projects 20+ HR and 70+ RBI for the first time in his career, with nearly 40 stolen bases. Also, crossing the plate 34 times in the first 32 games of the season should allow him to better his career-best of 130 runs scored from 2003.
Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL (club option for ’09) - .426 BA / 10 HR / 29 RBI / 23 R
That amazing .426 average jumps out right away, yet if Jones keeps this pace (and does not suffer one of the nagging injuries that he has fallen victim to over the past few seasons), the veteran may end up with his best season to date. Projected out, Jones could tally 40+ HR, 130+ RBI and 120+ R if the numbers hold true.
Joe Nathan, RP, MIN - 11 SV / 0.69 ERA / 1.00 WHIP / 14 K
Riding with an absurd 0.69 ERA, Nathan may prove doubters wrong in 2008, as he is on pace to top his career-best of 44 saves from 2004.
Manny Ramirez, OF, BOS (club option for ’09 and ’10) - .326 BA / 7 HR / 24 RBI / 22 R / 1 SB
It’s just “Manny being Manny,” as Ramirez is on track to bat above .300 for the eleventh time in his 15-year career. A line of .310 BA / 30 HR / 105 RBI / 100 R sounds just about right for Ramirez in 2008 if he keeps things up.
Ben Sheets, SP, MIL - 4-0 / 2.29 ERA / 0.89 WHIP / 32 K
Barring an injury, Sheets could see himself with a 20+ win season when 2008 is over and done with. In addition, he is on pace to strike out 180+ batters this year, which would be his highest total since the 264 K he posted in 2004.
There are other contract-year players who have also done fairly well this season in comparison to their career numbers. Guys such as Jeff Kent, Richie Sexson, Adam Dunn and Jason Isringhausen are on pace for solid fantasy numbers in their search for big paychecks following 2008. We must also not forget about players like Rangers 3B Hank Blalock and Angels SP John Lackey, who have been bitten by the injury bug, but who are also fantasy staples and should perform up to standards this season.
In the end, focusing on fantasy players in the final year of their contracts can be a risky play – Andruw Jones and Jason Giambi (so far) have shown us that. Nevertheless, those instances provide what can be deemed anomalies in the overall scope of the contract-year player. Too many times, players, regardless of sport, have matched or exceeded expectations in their quest for the almighty dollar. |
