Sweet 16 best bets, odds: 6 Action Network expert picks for 3/28 

Clemson vs. Arizona

Thursday, March 28, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS
Clemson +7.5 (BetMGM)

By Patrick Strollo

The No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers will face the No. 2 seed Arizona Wildcats during the early window. I think this is a good spot to jump on the points because Clemson has the ability to keep this game close.

Now, I do think Arizona is the better team here, but there are a couple of reasons I want to fade the Wildcats against the spread.

First, this game is screening well on my model, with Clemson projected as a five-point underdog. This is further backed up by our Action Network PRO Projections, which have Clemson at +6.5.

I almost always run with the math, and in this neutral-court contest, the points are in favor of the Tigers.

Secondly, this Arizona team hasn’t necessarily been unflappable this season, as evidenced by a couple of stumbles in the regular season and Pac-12 Tournament. Arizona ranks 286th in the nation in 3-point rate, and if the deep ball isn’t connecting, Clemson will certainly be able to hang around.

Lastly, a lot of efficiency talk has creeped into the mainstream sports media in the last couple of weeks. Many have said a team needs to sit in the top 25 in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to win the national title.

While Arizona does fall into this category, I can’t help but wonder if oddsmakers have slightly tuned the lines to account for public interest in more nuanced statistics.

This Clemson team has all of the pieces to make this a very close game. While the Tigers may not fit the traditional metrics of a national champ, they can definitely hang around in this Sweet 16 affair.

I recommend taking the 7.5 points and playing this down to +6.5.

Pick: Clemson +7.5 (Play to +6.5)

Clemson +7.5 (Caesars)

By Mike McNamara

Nobody gave Clemson a chance entering this tournament, and the Tigers proved the masses wrong in both their opening round win over New Mexico, as well as against Baylor in the Round of 32.

I see them once again surprising in the Sweet 16.

Clemson has one of the more formidable big men duos in the country, with PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin both being loads on the inside.

That size will be critical against an Arizona team that can often overpower teams on the interior with its length.

The Tigers are an elite defensive rebounding team and should be able to keep the Wildcats off the offensive glass.

Clemson shot the basketball well from deep in both of its opening wins and will need to do more of the same if it wants a chance to pull off another upset.

With veterans Joe Girard III and Chase Hunter shooting it with a ton of confidence, I think there’s reason to believe the Tigers can do it yet again.

Yes, Clemson will need to contain a dynamic Arizona backcourt featuring Caleb Love and Kylan Boswell, but there’s reason to believe it can.

Both New Mexico and Baylor have elite guard play, and the Tigers could still get enough stops, due in large part to a very effective transition defense.

I don’t know if Brad Brownell’s team has enough firepower to pull off a third consecutive outright upset, but it can certainly do enough to hang inside this number.

Give me the Tigers with the points.

Pick: Clemson +7.5

San Diego State vs. UConn

Thursday, March 28, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS
San Diego State +10.5 (DraftKings) 

By Matt Gannon

We have a national title rematch on Thursday, as UConn and San Diego State square off in the Sweet 16.

The Huskies are on a run eerily similar to last season. When they get hot, they really do look like the best team in the nation.

But on the other side, San Diego State has heated up at the right time. Although it fell just short of the Mountain West crown, it finds itself in contention for the national title.

Jaedon LeDee has put the Aztecs on his back this season, but that's been especially the case over the last two games. He's gone for 26 and 32 points over the last two games and will be the go-to guy in this one as well.

He'll surely have his hands full with the UConn frontcourt, but the Aztecs have plenty of options to kick out to on the perimeter.

Outside of believing LeDee can will San Diego State to success, I love the number and situation for the Aztecs. All the public has seen is UConn running through teams, which has them running to bet both Huskies futures and lay the points here.

Just one game ago, UConn was a 13-point favorite over Northwestern. Clearly, it took care of business in that matchup, but San Diego State deserves a lot more respect than just a three-point difference. SDSU and Northwestern on a neutral court would be closer to a six-point spread than three.

Throw in the revenge aspect, and this has all the makings of a tight one.

Pick: San Diego State +10.5 (Play to +9)

Alabama vs. North Carolina

Thursday, March 28, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS
UNC -4.5 (FanDuel)

By Brett Pund

I've been impressed with Alabama’s defense in the first two games of the tournament. However, I still don’t trust the Tide on that end of the floor against elite competition.

One major weakness for the Crimson Tide is the inability to defend without fouling. Since February, Alabama ranks 357th out of 362 Division I teams in opponent free-throw rate.

This isn't good going up against a North Carolina squad that’s 65th in the country in the percentage points that come from the charity stripe.

The Tar Heels are also in the top 25 in second-chance conversion percentage, per Haslametrics. This is another advantage against a Tide defense that’s 309th in defensive rebounding since February.

On the other end of the floor, UNC has to be able to defend shots from beyond the arc and at the rim from Alabama. North Carolina ranks inside the top 30 in opponent shooting percentages from near-proximity and 3-pointers.

I expect head coach Hubert Davis to turn this into more of a half-court game, and I like UNC to move on to the Elite Eight with a win.

Pick: UNC -4.5 (Play to -6)

On March 11, the Tar Heel State launched North Carolina sports betting fully online. Sign up at NC Sportsbooks today.

Over 173.5 (FanDuel)

By John Feltman

As crazy as it sounds, we’re getting a discount on the total between Alabama and North Carolina. Both of these offenses love to run up and down the floor as much as they possibly can.

The Tide missed a ton of easy shots against Grand Canyon, and I don’t expect that to happen again, despite playing a much more formidable opponent. The Tar Heels rank 310th in defensive turnover rate, so nothing is stopping the Tide from putting up quick shots on each possession.

What truly sold me on the over is that both of these teams are outstanding at the free-throw line. The Tide foul a ton on the defensive side, which should allow an abundance of extra points with the clock stopped.

The Heels don’t shoot a ton of 3s, but they’re hitting them at a 37% clip as a team. If the triple isn’t working, they have an edge against a very soft Alabama interior defense.

I realize UNC is a strong defensive team, but there’s nothing stopping the Alabama offense right now.

The first team to 95 points should win the matchup, and I don’t see a world where it’s a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Over 173.5 (Play to 175)

Illinois vs. Iowa State

Thursday, March 28, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS
Illinois +1.5 (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

The Illinois Fighting Illini own the best offense in the country, and the Iowa State Cyclones have the best defense. This should be quite the game.

Iowa State is usually a team that can trap a team to death and force turnovers. However, Illinois has made vast strides in controlling the ball and actually turns the ball over less frequently than the Cyclones.

Terrence Shannon Jr. also can get out in transition and score with the best players in the country. Iowa State will score off turnovers, but even though Illinois doesn’t force many mistakes, every outlet pass for the Illini looks like it could be a fast break with Shannon on the floor.

The Illini also launch more 3s than Iowa State. The Cyclones allow plenty of 3-point chances, while the Illini tend to force teams inside the arc. Look for Illinois to win on the margins in this area as well.

Finally, the Illini are a far superior rebounding team on offense and defense. Size is a major disadvantage for Iowa State, so Illinois should have a multitude of putback chances and buckets offensively.

The Illini aren't the better team, but they've shown defensive flashes. Meanwhile, Iowa State will have trouble with Illinois’ size and 3-point threats.

Take Illinois to a pick’em.

Pick: Illinois +1.5 (Play to PK)