Sweet 16, Clemson vs. Arizona odds, pick for 3/28: Shot volume is the driver here

Clemson vs. Arizona Odds

Thursday, March 28, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Clemson Tigers

Clemson had a clear plan of attack to deal with two excellent ball-screen and pick-and-roll offenses in the first two rounds. The Tigers don't grade out well in backcourt defense, but Clemson went under every screen and dared New Mexico and Baylor to beat it from the perimeter.

Neither could consistently. The Lobos and Bears shot a combined 9-of-47 (19%) from 3, which enabled the Tigers to advance. The ShotQuality result of their second-round matchup against Baylor saw them lose by nine in the expected score.

Baylor also left a lot of points at the free-throw line, which makes you wonder if the Tigers now come into this game overvalued off the back of positive defensive shooting variance.

KenPom has this spread projected around five, and the line has remained pretty steady on Arizona -7.5 for the entire week. It's clear the market isn't quite buying into Clemson, even if it's a popular underdog pick.

Clemson's offense is pretty balanced, but it's going to be difficult to effectively run through the post against the size and rim defense of Arizona. The Tigers will need to rely on their shot making. They have plenty of that, but they can also be quite volatile.

The Tigers rank eighth in shot making efficiency, per ShotQuality.

Without timely baskets from the perimeter, it's hard to see Clemson outscoring Arizona at the rim, especially since the Wildcats are ninth-best at preventing shots at the rim and 45th-best in field goal defense at the rim, per Haslametrics.

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Arizona Wildcats

There were two interesting developments for Arizona in its second-round game against Dayton.

First, Oumar Ballo had so many issues covering ball screens that he was basically played off the court in the second half by DaRon Holmes II. The Wildcats went smaller to better cover a roaming big like Holmes.

Clemson star PJ Hall is more of a traditional post than Holmes, but he's also capable of stretching the floor and forcing Arizona and Ballo into conflict with his shooting ability.

When you combine that with Clemson's ability to pack the paint and take away the rim, you're left with a difficult offensive matchup for the Arizona center.

The second change from Tommy Lloyd has been the increase in minutes for Jaden Bradley over Kylan Boswell. Bradley was elite offensively in the win against Dayton, and the Wildcat guard has played 50 minutes in two tournament games after averaging less than 20 minutes per game prior to the Big Dance.

Clemson's defense also grades out as elite at the rim — 42nd in near proximity attempt rate and third in field goal percentage — and the Tigers will most certainly take their chances in a jump-shooting contest with Arizona if presented with that opportunity.

Clemson vs. Arizona

Betting Pick & Prediction

With both teams well positioned to take away access to the rim for the other, I'll always prefer to side with the team projected to dominate the shot volume battle.

Clemson was at a shot volume deficit in both of its first two matchups and overcame that by winning on shooting variance.

Because of Arizona's excellent turnover differential, rebounding margin and free-throw rates, the Wildcats have a much higher floor than Clemson when shots aren't falling.

Combine that with transition success, and I'll take Arizona at -7 or better. Wait until closer to tip to see if a seven comes, though.

I'll also be taking small bets on Jaden Bradley over 7.5 points (+104 at FanDuel) and Kylan Boswell under 8.5 points (-120 at FanDuel).

Pick: Arizona -7 or Better | Jaden Bradley o7.5 Points (+104 at FanDuel) | Kylan Boswell u8.5 Points (-120 at FanDuel)