College Football Week 7 Top 25 Betting Guide

Top 25 Betting Preview

Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma Sooners
Spread: Oklahoma -9
Total: 62.5

Kansas took its first loss of the season last week against TCU. It was a very competitive game and actually impressive given they lost their starting QB during the contest. It is still unclear if Jalon Daniels is going to play in the game or not but the backup looked really good last week. The same cannot be said of OU, which did not score a point in its Red River Showdown game against Texas last week. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel was out and the Sooners could not muster anything offensively without him. His status for this week is hard to determine.

It shows just how much reputational strength Oklahoma has that they are still favored by more than a TD in this game. I get it, but I have no confidence in the Sooners right now. They might have better talent but the better coach and QB situation is on the Kansas side. This game is fascinating.

Score Prediction: Kansas 27 - Oklahoma 26
Why not have a little fun and predict the upset. Kansas is not as good as Texas but what is Oklahoma right now?

Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Longhorns

Spread: Texas -16.5
Total:49.5

Texas dominated against Oklahoma last week. It helped to have QB Quinn Ewers back for sure but when you pitch a shutout things are going to look pretty good. The Longhorns are at home and still very much in the race for the Big 12 Championship, as long as they do not take another loss in the league. Iowa State already has three losses in the league so they are playing spoiler from here on out. Amazingly, they have lost their last two games even though they have yielded just 24 points combined. They are desperate for some offense. 

This is a pretty big number for a letdown spot for Texas. ISU has had its struggles offensively but holding Kansas and K-State to just 24 points combined is impressive. They are not going to roll over, they are too well coached. 

Score Prediction: Texas 27 - Iowa State 16
The Cyclones are the kind of team you want to avoid if you are feeling proud of yourself, right?

Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels

Spread: Ole Miss -14.5
Total: 55.5 

Bryan Harsin is still leading Auburn but it is not because he is all of a sudden getting more out of his team. They lost to Georgia last week, but I suppose it could have been worse. The really tricky part is that the Tigers do not have a strength to lean on right now. As for Ole Miss, they are 6-0 thanks to a nearly perfectly balanced offense. They run for 242 ypg and pass for 248 ypg. Add in a defense that is giving up just 14 points per game and it is easy to how this has been winning. 

Ole Miss is just 3-3 ATS but this number looks like their sweet spot, they are 2-0 ATS when having to cover a number in the teens. It is hard to find a compelling reason they won’t do so again this week.

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 41 - Auburn 17
This is the last easy one that Ole Miss gets, and I think they know it.  

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines
Spread: Michigan -6.5
Total: 51.5 

Depending on who you ask, this is the game of the week. Both teams are undefeated and looking to prove they are capable of going toe to toe with Ohio State. Penn State was just OK the last time we saw them, beating Northwestern 17-7 and their win over Auburn has not aged well. Michigan was just OK the last time we saw them too, beating Indiana with a pedestrian effort. This is a very big spot for a QB that does not have a lot of experience at this level. I think it is fair to say that we are not sure just how he responds.

This number feels priced right given the game is in Ann Arbor. I do think it could go either way provided PSU can run the ball. They are not going to make many mistakes. Whoever has the ball last has a chance to win it.

Score Prediction: Michigan 27 - Penn State 24 
Curious to see if this one gets to 7 so I am going to wait it out.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs
Spread: Georgia -38.5
Total: 58.5

Vanderbilt might have notched a few wins already but that does not mean they have closed the gap at all with Georgia. The last time Vanderbilt won in this series was back in 2016. I would have guessed it might have been 1916 given the gap between these teams. Georgia looked better last week against Auburn but is still not quite firing on all cylinders. For all of the concerns, they are still winning by an average of 29 ppg.

This is another monster spread game but I think Georgia is up for it. Their schedule stiffens in the second half of the season but they have a bye next week so there is no reason to get caught looking ahead in this spot.

Score Prediction: Georgia 56 - Vanderbilt 7
Vandy just won't have any answers, even when the second and third-stringers start coming in.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers
Spread: Alabama -7
Total: 65.5

This is another match between undefeated teams. Alabama got by against Texas A&M last week with QB Bryce Young watching from the sidelines. He is still listed as questionable and this might be a tougher spot than last week because they probably need more than 24 points to win. Tennessee is now in the Top 10 and deservedly so. They are dying to beat Alabama (for the first time against Nick Saban), even if it comes with an asterisk. Hendon Hooker has been one of the best QB in the game this season and the Vols' offense can be very potent.

This game has not been expected to be this close in a long time. Tennessee is dying to use this as a game to break through but that doesn't mean it is going to happen. I am nervous about the line if Young does not play again.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 31 - Alabama 24 
Young being on the field and in form is the key here. If he isn't Tennessee becomes a great play. Heck, play them anyway. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys at TCU Horned Frogs
Spread: TCU -3.5
Total: 68.5

This is a huge game in the Big 12 between its last two remaining undefeated teams. Oklahoma State has been taking care of business because senior QB Spencer Sanders has been great. The Cowboys are fourth in the nation in scoring. TCU is right there with them, they are actually third in the nation in scoring so look for fireworks in this one. Both teams are exceeding expectations so this will be a great indicator of which team is for real.

I am not a fan of the spot for the home side in this one. They were just on the road and had a big game against Kansas. A roller coaster win. Now they are favored at home against a high-quality opponent. They might come out flat and lose it in the first quarter.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 41 - TCU 38
This one is going to be back and forth with very few punts. Watch out for the hook and whoever gets the ball last. 

NC State Wolfpack at Syracuse Orange
Spread: Syracuse -3.5
Total: 42.5

It is funny because Syracuse enters this game with better CFP chances than NC State. That is because NC State already has one loss and their QB, Devin Leary, got knocked out in their win last week against Florida State so their immediate future is iffy. There is still a lot of talent on the Wolfpack but when you don't have your QB things get weird quickly. As for Syracuse, they have to be the least likely undefeated team remaining. They are better than they have been recently but the schedule stiffens dramatically in the second half. 

If Leary was healthy there is no way NC State would not be favored in this game. I think that created a buying opportunity, especially with that hook on the 3. Get it before it is gone.

Score Prediction: NC State 24 - Syracuse 20
Look for a low-scoring game. NC State does just enough to get the W.

Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles
Spread: Clemson -3.5
Total: 51

With each week Clemson is showing that it belongs closer to the teams at the very top of the sport. Their defense has been great this season and should get a boost from some injury returns while QB DJU has played better than most have given him credit for. At the same time, Florida State has shown improvement this season but they are still closer to the middle of the ACC than the top. It would be great for them to get a big win but this feels too soon.

Clemson is one of my favorite values this week. Of course, anything can happen when you are playing on the road in your conference but this feels like a game they should win by more like 10 points than four.

Score Prediction: Clemson 27 - Florida State 14
This is a perfect teaser spot with Clemson even though they should win easily.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats
Spread: Mississippi State -4.5
Total: 48.5

Mississippi State is probably better than you realize. They get lost in the SEC West with all of the good teams but Mike Leach has his offense rolling and they have always been able to recruit NFL-level players on defense. Kentucky has developed a great reputation under Mike Stoops but this is not the same team we were expecting this season and especially not with QB Will Levis banged up. This number says he is not likely to play and even if the does the offensive line and weapons available to him are limited.

This line might look funny with the Wildcats underdogs at home but it is sensible given the current state of the team. The MSU offense is going to be hard to stop and they probably win the game running (or passing) away.

Score Prediction: Mississippi State 31 - Kentucky 16
Love this line. It is another great teaser spot if you want to avoid the dead numbers.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
Spread: North Carolina -7
Total: 66.5

North Carolina is the only team in the ACC Coastal that has yet to take a league loss. The division is a mess and there is a great chance that they come out on top even though this was supposed to be a down year for the program. Quarterback Drake Maye looks like the real deal though. Duke is 1-1 in ACC play so a home win on Saturday gets them tied with UNC. They are not good this season but are 4-2 overall thanks to their ability to beat bad teams.

UNC has won four straight against Duke and covered in three. These teams are not so heated on the gridiron as they are on the hardwood. Usually, the better team wins with ease.

Score Prediction: North Carolina 41 - Duke 24
I think the home field is being overrated in this matchup. Duke does not have the guys to keep up when the Tar Heels get their offense going.

USC Trojans at Utah Utes
Spread: Utah -3.5
Total: 64.5

USC is still undefeated even though QB Caleb Williams has not been at his best over the last couple of games. USC has leaned on its running game more than most people realize and its defense has been elite in terms of producing turnovers. I guess that offense allows it to take chances. Utah is coming home off a loss at UCLA last week. The loss was one thing but the game got away from them in a way we do not usually see with the Utes. This game was always going to be a big one but it has lost some of its luster due to Utah's record.

Utah is still favored at home even though they have a couple of losses and USC is undefeated. That does not happen often. I am all in on USC so I am not going to miss this chance to get them as an underdog. Perhaps for the only time this season.

Score Prediction: USC 34 - Utah 24
This game will be a grind on both sides but USC will make some big plays to get the win. Another great teaser opportunity.