Scottie Scheffler | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Why Scottie Scheffler seems like a lock for first win of season

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Apr 29, 2025 12:30 PM ET

Scottie Scheffler is still searching for his first PGA Tour win of 2025. Luckily for him, the world No. 1 seems to be almost guaranteed that victory at this week's CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

If you scroll down the list of players in the field at TPC Craig Ranch, you'll notice a glaring lack of star power. There's no Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas or Ludvig Aberg in the mix. Sungjae Im, who is 20th in the Official World Golf Ranking, is the highest-ranked player in the field outside of Scheffler.

The odds board reflects the lack of talent at the top of the field, too. Scheffler is priced as low as +250 to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, per Caesars, perhaps the cheapest price on a player all season on the PGA Tour. The next-closest players on the odds board are Jordan Spieth (+1800), who hasn't won since 2022, and Im (+2200), who just missed the cut at the Woori Financial Group Championship on the Korean Tour.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will make his sixth career appearance at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and first since 2023.

Field for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: pic.twitter.com/e74AItsgSs
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) April 25, 2025

Aside from the weak field, this is also a great course for Scheffler to shine. TPC Craig Ranch is located just 30 minutes from Scheffler's hometown of Highland Park, a Dallas suburb, so he has plenty of experience playing this type of course.

Unsurprisingly, Scheffler is by far the best Texas player on the PGA Tour. Over the past 24 rounds in Texas, Scheffler ranks first in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green. The 28-year-old finished T15 at TPC Craig Ranch in 2022 and T5 in 2023, so he's trending toward a win at his homestate event.

Even though Scheffler hasn't found the winner's circle yet this year, you can tell he's close. The 13-time PGA Tour winner has finished T8, solo fourth and T2 in his past three starts, and his statistical profile is sparkling. Scheffler ranks second on Tour this season in strokes gained from tee to green, first in scrambling and 11th in putting from inside 10 feet.

No one in this field can touch Scheffler if he plays up to his expectations this week Thursday-Sunday (May 1-4). This is his tournament to lose.

Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

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