It's the dawn of a new section here at Fire Ned Colletti Now, and I hope i'll actually remember to do this every once in a while in the future. Anyway, I figure it'll be fun to document some of my "educated" predictions and see how they work out in the end.
20 Home Runs For Matt Kemp
Everybody and their mother predicted Kemp's power would emerge this season, and the general feeling was that he'd easily hit between 20-30 home runs. He's currently on pace for 12, but with his frame he always seems like a threat to go on a homer binge like he did in 2005 when he hit 7 homers in his first 100 major league at bats. The problem, however, is that Kemp hits a lot of a ground balls (44.5% this year, 45.4% last year). And even though his line drive percentage (26.7%) bodes very well for his batting average, it also means that he doesn't hit many fly balls (28.8%). When also considering that 23.8% of his at bats end in strikeouts, and only 8.8% of his fly balls end up over the fence, Matt simply doesn't give himself enough of an opportunity to hit home runs. All in all, it would be a stretch to assume Kemp can reach the 20 home run plateau unless something drastic happens with his percentages.
Prediction-Under
Plus other stuff similar.
10 Starts This Year For Clayton Kershaw
.800 OPS For Jeff Kent
.300 Average For Russell Martin
15 Wins For Anybody On The Dodgers Pitching Staff
1 All-Star For The Dodgers
20 Home Runs For Matt Kemp
Everybody and their mother predicted Kemp's power would emerge this season, and the general feeling was that he'd easily hit between 20-30 home runs. He's currently on pace for 12, but with his frame he always seems like a threat to go on a homer binge like he did in 2005 when he hit 7 homers in his first 100 major league at bats. The problem, however, is that Kemp hits a lot of a ground balls (44.5% this year, 45.4% last year). And even though his line drive percentage (26.7%) bodes very well for his batting average, it also means that he doesn't hit many fly balls (28.8%). When also considering that 23.8% of his at bats end in strikeouts, and only 8.8% of his fly balls end up over the fence, Matt simply doesn't give himself enough of an opportunity to hit home runs. All in all, it would be a stretch to assume Kemp can reach the 20 home run plateau unless something drastic happens with his percentages.
Prediction-Under
Plus other stuff similar.
10 Starts This Year For Clayton Kershaw
.800 OPS For Jeff Kent
.300 Average For Russell Martin
15 Wins For Anybody On The Dodgers Pitching Staff
1 All-Star For The Dodgers
Original Story:
