Joe Sheehan had an article today arguing that the Indians should keep Sabathia, and make a run at the division. Someone should probably get Sheehan and Tyler Kepner together for a little chat. The article mentions various metrics, including their run differential (+15) and EqA (11th in the AL).
For most teams, in most years, that'd be sufficient. But for the 2008 Indians, I don't think it is. This team is so different than it was three months ago that we really need to determine a new baseline for its expected performance. Since they have a pretty important decision to make over the next five weeks, I thought I'd attempt to do that.
Today, I'll break down their offense, position by position, in order to figure out how many runs they should be expected to score the rest of the way. Tomorrow I'll look at the pitching staff, and then we'll have a better idea of how good the Indians, as currently constructed, really are.
(The percentages for each position are for the player, rather than for the player at that particular position. So the numbers for each position don't add up to 100%, but all the numbers add up to 900%.)
Catcher PECOTA: Victor Martinez (85%), .293/.369/.458
Kelly Shoppach (25%), .230/.305/.413
YTD: Martinez: .278/.332/.333
Shoppach: .230/.304/.416
Martinez's line is worse than his 10th percentile PECOTA. His SLG is down 172 points from last year. It's very hard to know how good he will be if/when he comes back, but for our purposes it doesn't even matter that much, since Shoppach will get the majority of ABs from here on out. At least he's easy to project.
Rest of way: Shoppach (55%), .230/.305/.413
Martinez (30%), .285/.345/.420
Fasano (15%), .223/.283/.389
First base
PECOTA: Ryan Garko (80%), .272/.343/.460
YTD: Garko: .255/.339/.368
They don't even have an excuse here. .194 ISO last year, .113 ISO this year. He's not hurt, he's not old. But hey, at least he contributes in the field and on the basepaths, right?
Rest of way: Garko (90%), .265/.340/.445
Second base
Asdrubal Cabrera (80%), .263/.324/.383
Josh Barfield (15%), .260/.304/.393
Jamey Carroll (15%), .246/.328/.319
YTD: Cabrera: .184/.282/.247
Barfield: .000/.000/.000 (6 ABs)
Carroll: .281/.369/.349
Another complete and total collapse. Cabrera was playing way over his head last year, but PECOTA knew that, and didn't exactly expect him to win the batting title. There are pretty low offensive expectations for good-field second basemen, but a .529 OPS isn't going to cut regardless of positional value. (That's not to completely write Cabrera off, as he won't turn 23 until November. But he hasn't exactly been an asset in 2008.)
Rest of way: Carroll (75%), .247/.330/.320
Velandia (20%), .325/.310/.386
Barfield (10%), .260/.300/.390
Shortstop
Jhonny Peralta (90%), .266/.341/.431
YTD: Peralta, .243/.292/.429
At one point, I believe Peralta had 11 homers and 19 RBIs. Not 19 RBIs on those home runs; 19 RBIs total. That is hard to do. He has been better with runners on base lately, but he's still making outs 70+% of the time. He's also awful at short. Seriously, this infield has had one of the worst 12 week stretches you'll ever see.
Rest of way: Peralta (95%), .262/.334/.430
Third base
Casey Blake (80%), .264/.333/.432
Andy Marte (25%), .245/.309/.418
Actual: Blake: .266/.340/.430
Marte: .146/.196/.167
This is the fifth position we've looked at, and the first one where the starter hasn't completely collapsed. Incredible, really.
Blake has actually contributed about a half run more than his slash line would indicate, as he's hit .422/.500/.781 w/RISP. This led to some announcer claiming that the reason for this clutchiness was that he concentrates harder in those situations. Which seems entirely reasonable to me, really. It's not like he hit .190/.271/.294 w/RISP last year. No, that never happened.
Rest of way: Blake (95%), .265/.335/.430
Marte (15%), .243/.307/.415
Left field
PECOTA: Jason Michaels (50%), .266/.336/.401
David Dellucci (50%), .250/.343/.430
Ben Francisco (35%), .272/.328/.437
YTD: Michaels: .207/.258/.276
Dellucci, .225/.312/.399
Francisco, .302/.353/.479
Man, I had completely forgotten about Michaels. Hadn't thought about him in weeks. What a train wreck he was. Francisco has been one of the few bright spots for the offense, so much so that he went from AAA to hitting third every night in about a month.
Rest of way: Francisco (95%), .274/.330/.443
Center field
PECOTA: Grady Sizemore (95%), .277/.367/.490
YTD: Sizemore: .266/.372/.514
This is the second--and final--position from which the Indians have gotten the expected amount of production. Sizemore was covered last week. He's still good, if confusing.
Rest of way: Sizemore (95%), .275/.368/.493
Right field
PECOTA: Franklin Gutierrez (70%), .267/.330/.448
YTD: Gutierrez: .239/.289/.353
Gutierrez is a fantastic defender. Too bad he's a corner outfielder with a .289 OBP.
Rest of way: Gutierrez (65%), .263/.325/.440
Choo (60%), .255/.325/.378
Designated hitter
PECOTA: Travis Hafner (80%), .275/.384/.492
YTD: Hafner: .217/.326/.350
This has been a disaster, yes, but not quite as surprising as some of the others. The decline began last year, and it was expedited this year. "Old player skills" rearing their ugly head. Or maybe it was his shoulder. Probably both. Kind of incredible how he kept the walk rate up.
Rest of way: Dellucci (70%), .246/.339/.426
Hafner (15%), .260/.365/.440
To recap:
PECOTA: .267/.343/.438
YTD: .245/.323/.390
Rest of way: .262/.334/.424Prior to the season, PECOTA thought the Tribe would score 5.15 runs per game. Based on their "Rest of way" slash line, that expectation needs to be knocked down to 4.79.Tomorrow I'll look at the pitching staff, where they've only lost their #2 and #3 starters, and seen a guy who PECOTA expected to have a 4.95 ERA become the favorite for the Cy Young.
Photo: Home Run Derby.
For most teams, in most years, that'd be sufficient. But for the 2008 Indians, I don't think it is. This team is so different than it was three months ago that we really need to determine a new baseline for its expected performance. Since they have a pretty important decision to make over the next five weeks, I thought I'd attempt to do that.
Today, I'll break down their offense, position by position, in order to figure out how many runs they should be expected to score the rest of the way. Tomorrow I'll look at the pitching staff, and then we'll have a better idea of how good the Indians, as currently constructed, really are.
(The percentages for each position are for the player, rather than for the player at that particular position. So the numbers for each position don't add up to 100%, but all the numbers add up to 900%.)
Catcher PECOTA: Victor Martinez (85%), .293/.369/.458
Kelly Shoppach (25%), .230/.305/.413
YTD: Martinez: .278/.332/.333
Shoppach: .230/.304/.416
Martinez's line is worse than his 10th percentile PECOTA. His SLG is down 172 points from last year. It's very hard to know how good he will be if/when he comes back, but for our purposes it doesn't even matter that much, since Shoppach will get the majority of ABs from here on out. At least he's easy to project.
Rest of way: Shoppach (55%), .230/.305/.413
Martinez (30%), .285/.345/.420
Fasano (15%), .223/.283/.389
First base
PECOTA: Ryan Garko (80%), .272/.343/.460
YTD: Garko: .255/.339/.368
They don't even have an excuse here. .194 ISO last year, .113 ISO this year. He's not hurt, he's not old. But hey, at least he contributes in the field and on the basepaths, right?
Rest of way: Garko (90%), .265/.340/.445
Second base
Asdrubal Cabrera (80%), .263/.324/.383
Josh Barfield (15%), .260/.304/.393
Jamey Carroll (15%), .246/.328/.319
YTD: Cabrera: .184/.282/.247
Barfield: .000/.000/.000 (6 ABs)
Carroll: .281/.369/.349
Another complete and total collapse. Cabrera was playing way over his head last year, but PECOTA knew that, and didn't exactly expect him to win the batting title. There are pretty low offensive expectations for good-field second basemen, but a .529 OPS isn't going to cut regardless of positional value. (That's not to completely write Cabrera off, as he won't turn 23 until November. But he hasn't exactly been an asset in 2008.)
Rest of way: Carroll (75%), .247/.330/.320
Velandia (20%), .325/.310/.386
Barfield (10%), .260/.300/.390
Shortstop
Jhonny Peralta (90%), .266/.341/.431
YTD: Peralta, .243/.292/.429
At one point, I believe Peralta had 11 homers and 19 RBIs. Not 19 RBIs on those home runs; 19 RBIs total. That is hard to do. He has been better with runners on base lately, but he's still making outs 70+% of the time. He's also awful at short. Seriously, this infield has had one of the worst 12 week stretches you'll ever see.
Rest of way: Peralta (95%), .262/.334/.430
Third base
Casey Blake (80%), .264/.333/.432
Andy Marte (25%), .245/.309/.418
Actual: Blake: .266/.340/.430
Marte: .146/.196/.167
This is the fifth position we've looked at, and the first one where the starter hasn't completely collapsed. Incredible, really.
Blake has actually contributed about a half run more than his slash line would indicate, as he's hit .422/.500/.781 w/RISP. This led to some announcer claiming that the reason for this clutchiness was that he concentrates harder in those situations. Which seems entirely reasonable to me, really. It's not like he hit .190/.271/.294 w/RISP last year. No, that never happened.
Rest of way: Blake (95%), .265/.335/.430
Marte (15%), .243/.307/.415
Left field
PECOTA: Jason Michaels (50%), .266/.336/.401
David Dellucci (50%), .250/.343/.430
Ben Francisco (35%), .272/.328/.437
YTD: Michaels: .207/.258/.276
Dellucci, .225/.312/.399
Francisco, .302/.353/.479
Man, I had completely forgotten about Michaels. Hadn't thought about him in weeks. What a train wreck he was. Francisco has been one of the few bright spots for the offense, so much so that he went from AAA to hitting third every night in about a month.
Rest of way: Francisco (95%), .274/.330/.443
Center field
PECOTA: Grady Sizemore (95%), .277/.367/.490
YTD: Sizemore: .266/.372/.514
This is the second--and final--position from which the Indians have gotten the expected amount of production. Sizemore was covered last week. He's still good, if confusing.
Rest of way: Sizemore (95%), .275/.368/.493
Right field
PECOTA: Franklin Gutierrez (70%), .267/.330/.448
YTD: Gutierrez: .239/.289/.353
Gutierrez is a fantastic defender. Too bad he's a corner outfielder with a .289 OBP.
Rest of way: Gutierrez (65%), .263/.325/.440
Choo (60%), .255/.325/.378
Designated hitter
PECOTA: Travis Hafner (80%), .275/.384/.492
YTD: Hafner: .217/.326/.350
This has been a disaster, yes, but not quite as surprising as some of the others. The decline began last year, and it was expedited this year. "Old player skills" rearing their ugly head. Or maybe it was his shoulder. Probably both. Kind of incredible how he kept the walk rate up.
Rest of way: Dellucci (70%), .246/.339/.426
Hafner (15%), .260/.365/.440
To recap:
PECOTA: .267/.343/.438
YTD: .245/.323/.390
Rest of way: .262/.334/.424Prior to the season, PECOTA thought the Tribe would score 5.15 runs per game. Based on their "Rest of way" slash line, that expectation needs to be knocked down to 4.79.Tomorrow I'll look at the pitching staff, where they've only lost their #2 and #3 starters, and seen a guy who PECOTA expected to have a 4.95 ERA become the favorite for the Cy Young.
Photo: Home Run Derby.
Original Story:
