The GNUru Hype Machine: Top 10 Breakout Pitchers

The GNUru realizes that just about every fantasy sports publication has some magic formula to predict this year's crop of breakout players. For some it's the 27-year old benchmark, 3rd year of MLB experience, or even the number of games played or innings pitched. At first glance these 'trends' may King Felix or King of Hype?appear to hold some weight, however, many of the players that fall within those categories, fail miserably. While there are always a handful of players that do break out and fill their fantasy team owner with glutinous pride, the majority of players become prime candidates for the plague known as Sexy Pick Syndrome (SPS). So what's to make of all the hype? Nothing. Predicting a pitcher's success has little to do with arbitrary age class or magic innings pitched. It is all about talent. Talent includes both stuff (the ability to make hitters look silly at times) and guile (the pitchers craftiness). As such, the GNUru will attempt to breakdown the fantasy baseball hype machine in a 2 part series of both pitching and hitting breakout trends. Today, the GNUru will take a look at pitching trends and how it will affect player values this spring. First let's have a look at last years cream of the breakout crop: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Erik Bedard, and Aaron Cook. While those pitchers had respectable seasons, their success is not enough to compensate the major whiffs- Noah Lowry, Rich Harden, Jorge Sosa, Daniel Cabrera, and Zach Greinke. In fact, if you targeted 3rd year pitchers, you success rate is no different than if you ignored MLB service time all together. The GNUru is not going to claim the ability to predict who will breakout and who won't (no one should), but knowing how players are valued (relative to draft position) among other owners can help you put together a winning combination. So without further adieu, here is the GNUru's Top 10 over-hyped breakout candidate pitchers heading into the 2007 season.