The whole world is reporting that the Indians have traded C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers, so even though the specifics of the deal are unclear, I guess it's time for a post.
There have been strong rumors about a trade between these two teams for awhile now, and for good reason. Both teams are, essentially, trading from a position of excess. The Indians are giving up a 2008 asset (expendable when you're 14 games out of first in July), and the Brewers are trading a potent bat that comes with a questionable glove (valuable, but less so when you're in the NL and already have Braun, Fielder, and Mat Gamel).
The Brewers are seizing their opportunity this season, as it looks to be their best in the near future. Although they will likely benefit from Yovani Gallardo's return next year, ace Ben Sheets will be a free agent this winter; combined with Sabathia's expected departure, the 2008 Brewers rotation is looking a whole lot more formidable than next year's staff.
By acquiring Sabathia right now, Milwaukee is maximizing his value, as he'll be able to make two starts before the All-Star break. That means he'll make approximately 15 regular season starts as a Brewer. Either Dave Bush or Seth McClung will be moved out of the bullpen; it doesn't particularly matter, as an ERA of about 4.60 would be expected out of either. In the NL, the over/under on Sabathia's ERA would likely be around 3.10. Over half a season, that upgrade is worth about 1.5 wins, plus the substantial value he'd potentially provide in the playoffs. Add to that the two compensation picks Milwaukee stands to receive if they don't re-sign Sabathia, and it's easy to like this deal from their perspective.
In terms of impact on the National League pennant race, the team most adversely effected by this trade is likely the Cardinals. Sabathia makes the Brewers the clear frontrunner for the Wild Card (not that they weren't already), and possibly even the second most likely NL playoff team.
It would be a mistake to not mention Sabathia's hitting prowess, as he boasts a career line of .300/.317/.475 (in an outrageously small sample size of 42 PAs, of course). His 440-foot bomb against the Dodgers provided one of the few highlights of Cleveland's 2008 campaign.
Sabathia's departure probably won't register to Indians fans until he takes the mound in Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Ever since his debut at the age of 20, he's been a valuable member of the rotation, posting at least average ERAs in each of his eight seasons. His value as an Indian peaked last year, both in reality (241 IP, 143 ERA+, both career highs) and perception (Cy Young award).
Sabathia's poor performance at the outset of the season (18 IP, 27 R, 14 BB, 5 HR in four starts) made headlines and, other than in trade talks, he hasn't been in the news much since. However, he's been as good as anybody since mid-April, posting a 2.16 ERA and 109:20 K:BB ratio in 104.1 innings. His 2008 QERA--even including those first four starts--is an impressive 3.44.
Unfortunately, this is how a team with the Indians' resources is forced to do business. From a business perspective, drafting Sabathia is likely one of the smartest things the organization has ever done. They turned a #20 pick in the 1998 draft and about $30MM into 1,528.2 innings of a 115 ERA+, and the four prospects they'll receive from Milwaukee.
The headlining prospect is Matt LaPorta, a 23-year old out of the University of Florida. Last winter, Kevin Goldstein ranked him as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization, and Keith Law had him 37th in all of baseball. This year, he's hit .291/.404/.584 in 296 ABs at AA Huntsville. He'll likely report to AAA Buffalo, and could contribute to the big club as early as August. He'll likely end up at first base, a position that has emerged as a weakness for the Indians in 2008, as Ryan Garko has managed only a .243/.324/.342 line.
The details beyond LaPorta are not entirely clear, but reports indicate the Indians will be receiving LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and a PTBNL.
Jackson doesn't look to be anything to write home about, as he's a 25-year old with a 7.83 ERA at AAA Nashville, with 33 Ks and 9 HRs allowed in 56.1 IP.
Bryson is a 20-year old currently a single-A West Virginia, with a considerable amount of upside. He was moved to the bullpen after five starts, and has recorded 73 Ks in 55 innings, while walking 20 and giving up three homers. Back in February, Goldstein described him as "[offering] plenty to dream on."
The fourth prospect sounds like it may end up being 21-year old Taylor Green. He primarily played second base in 2006, but was then moved to third, apparently because of Rickie Weeks' presence presence on the Brewers. The thinking is that the Indians would like to get a good look at him at second before committing to him, as he'd theoretically be more valuable there. In 2008, Green has put up a line of .297/.381/.452 with Brevard County, with 10 homers in a park that significantly suppresses power.
The Indians and Brewers matched up very well, which of course is why this deal happened in the first place. The Indians got a high impact bat that will be able to contribute to the 2009 club. They also received potential long-term solutions for second base and the rotation, although the probabiliity of those two is significantly lower. I'm in no real position to value prospects, but this seems like a pretty decent haul, especially considering the heightened (perceived) value of prospects over the last few years.
Related:
The Big Trade, Part I [Let's Go Tribe]
Meet Matt LaPorta [The Cleveland Fan]
Keith Law [ESPN]
All about LaPorta [CastroTurf]
There have been strong rumors about a trade between these two teams for awhile now, and for good reason. Both teams are, essentially, trading from a position of excess. The Indians are giving up a 2008 asset (expendable when you're 14 games out of first in July), and the Brewers are trading a potent bat that comes with a questionable glove (valuable, but less so when you're in the NL and already have Braun, Fielder, and Mat Gamel).
The Brewers are seizing their opportunity this season, as it looks to be their best in the near future. Although they will likely benefit from Yovani Gallardo's return next year, ace Ben Sheets will be a free agent this winter; combined with Sabathia's expected departure, the 2008 Brewers rotation is looking a whole lot more formidable than next year's staff.
By acquiring Sabathia right now, Milwaukee is maximizing his value, as he'll be able to make two starts before the All-Star break. That means he'll make approximately 15 regular season starts as a Brewer. Either Dave Bush or Seth McClung will be moved out of the bullpen; it doesn't particularly matter, as an ERA of about 4.60 would be expected out of either. In the NL, the over/under on Sabathia's ERA would likely be around 3.10. Over half a season, that upgrade is worth about 1.5 wins, plus the substantial value he'd potentially provide in the playoffs. Add to that the two compensation picks Milwaukee stands to receive if they don't re-sign Sabathia, and it's easy to like this deal from their perspective.
In terms of impact on the National League pennant race, the team most adversely effected by this trade is likely the Cardinals. Sabathia makes the Brewers the clear frontrunner for the Wild Card (not that they weren't already), and possibly even the second most likely NL playoff team.
It would be a mistake to not mention Sabathia's hitting prowess, as he boasts a career line of .300/.317/.475 (in an outrageously small sample size of 42 PAs, of course). His 440-foot bomb against the Dodgers provided one of the few highlights of Cleveland's 2008 campaign.
Sabathia's departure probably won't register to Indians fans until he takes the mound in Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Ever since his debut at the age of 20, he's been a valuable member of the rotation, posting at least average ERAs in each of his eight seasons. His value as an Indian peaked last year, both in reality (241 IP, 143 ERA+, both career highs) and perception (Cy Young award).
Sabathia's poor performance at the outset of the season (18 IP, 27 R, 14 BB, 5 HR in four starts) made headlines and, other than in trade talks, he hasn't been in the news much since. However, he's been as good as anybody since mid-April, posting a 2.16 ERA and 109:20 K:BB ratio in 104.1 innings. His 2008 QERA--even including those first four starts--is an impressive 3.44.
Unfortunately, this is how a team with the Indians' resources is forced to do business. From a business perspective, drafting Sabathia is likely one of the smartest things the organization has ever done. They turned a #20 pick in the 1998 draft and about $30MM into 1,528.2 innings of a 115 ERA+, and the four prospects they'll receive from Milwaukee.
The headlining prospect is Matt LaPorta, a 23-year old out of the University of Florida. Last winter, Kevin Goldstein ranked him as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization, and Keith Law had him 37th in all of baseball. This year, he's hit .291/.404/.584 in 296 ABs at AA Huntsville. He'll likely report to AAA Buffalo, and could contribute to the big club as early as August. He'll likely end up at first base, a position that has emerged as a weakness for the Indians in 2008, as Ryan Garko has managed only a .243/.324/.342 line.
The details beyond LaPorta are not entirely clear, but reports indicate the Indians will be receiving LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and a PTBNL.
Jackson doesn't look to be anything to write home about, as he's a 25-year old with a 7.83 ERA at AAA Nashville, with 33 Ks and 9 HRs allowed in 56.1 IP.
Bryson is a 20-year old currently a single-A West Virginia, with a considerable amount of upside. He was moved to the bullpen after five starts, and has recorded 73 Ks in 55 innings, while walking 20 and giving up three homers. Back in February, Goldstein described him as "[offering] plenty to dream on."
The fourth prospect sounds like it may end up being 21-year old Taylor Green. He primarily played second base in 2006, but was then moved to third, apparently because of Rickie Weeks' presence presence on the Brewers. The thinking is that the Indians would like to get a good look at him at second before committing to him, as he'd theoretically be more valuable there. In 2008, Green has put up a line of .297/.381/.452 with Brevard County, with 10 homers in a park that significantly suppresses power.
The Indians and Brewers matched up very well, which of course is why this deal happened in the first place. The Indians got a high impact bat that will be able to contribute to the 2009 club. They also received potential long-term solutions for second base and the rotation, although the probabiliity of those two is significantly lower. I'm in no real position to value prospects, but this seems like a pretty decent haul, especially considering the heightened (perceived) value of prospects over the last few years.
Related:
The Big Trade, Part I [Let's Go Tribe]
Meet Matt LaPorta [The Cleveland Fan]
Keith Law [ESPN]
All about LaPorta [CastroTurf]
Original Story:
