MLB odds: American League East futures look

We certainly think so. But unlike last season, don't be surprised if the Bronx Bombers win the division by just a couple of games. The Blue Jays have arguably the best overall lineup in all of the division, and after winning 90+ games for the second straight season last year, Toronto is no longer a sleeper or a one-year wonder. They're a legit ball club.

Toronto Blue Jays (+200)

Everyone knows Toronto can hit — the Jays led MLB in hits and batting average last year — and that the Blue Jays are full of superstar position players — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer — but can they pitch better? 

Toronto's bullpen was solid last year, but outside of Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays' starters really struggled. Jose Berrios has been a huge disappointment since coming over from Minnesota and left-handers Hyun Jin Ryu and Yusei Kikuchi were both really bad in 2022. Toronto did sign Chris Bassitt in the offseason, and he should be the team's No. 3 starter, but without one left-handed starter Toronto can count on, it's going to be very difficult to consistently win series and dethrone the Yankees. Expect Toronto to win at least 90 games and make the playoffs again this season, but don't take them to win the division.

Tampa Bay Rays (+350) 

As for Tampa Bay, they're the team we expect to see regress the most in the division. We seem to hear this every year, but despite a low payroll and a bunch of fairly unfamiliar faces, the Rays just continue to win. However, we're not so confident that happens again in 2023.

Tampa Bay will need an All-Star caliber season from shortstop Wander Franco, and without much protection behind him in the lineup, that's asking a ton. Randy Arozarena is the next best bat in the lineup and should continue to hit 20 home runs and drive in 70 runs, but the Rays also need to find a way to replace gold glove centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier, who signed with the Blue Jays in the offseason. Kiermaier might not bring a lot to the table offensively, but he sure can cover some ground in the outfield, and was a stable leader in that clubhouse.

Tampa's stacked rotation behind Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow will keep them in just about every game, but will they be able to score enough runs is the question? We're not entirely sold on the Rays' offense yet, and taking them to win the AL East for that reason alone is why we can't trust them. 

Boston Red Sox (+2000)

Meanwhile Boston stunk last year, but don't expect that to happen in 2023, even without Xander Bogaerts at shortstop. Rafael Devers is now the face of the franchise after signing a 10-year contract extension worth more than $300 million over the winter, but how will he do following a major payday remains to be seen. Same goes for veteran starter Chris Sale — can he finally stay healthy after making just two starts last season? Sale hasn't made 20+ starts in three years and his durability is more than just a little problem.

However, the Red Sox were proactive this offseason on the pitching side of things following the signings of Corey Kluber and Kenley Jensen, but if Boston is going to compete for the AL East, they're going to need more guys to step up than just Kluber and Jensen. Getting James Paxton back is huge after the southpaw missed all of last season due to Tommy John, and signing Justin Turner should boast that already solid lineup. But if the Red Sox are going to contend they're going to need rookies Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida to produce. But will they?

And did we mention Boston's bullpen had the second-highest ERA in the AL last year? They should be much better this year, but with a ton of questions marks at multiple positions, taking the Red Sox to win the division is just too risky. 

Baltimore Orioles (+2000)

As for Baltimore, they were arguably the surprise of all of baseball after winning 83 games last season. Let's face it, the Orioles have been bad for a while now — 52 wins in 2021; 54 wins in 2019; 47 wins in 2018 — and very few expected Baltimore to compete for a playoff berth last season. The question is can they take that next step? We're not convinced.

The O's have a ton of young talent — Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson, Jorge Mateo, etc. — but after showing flashes in 2022, can they all replicate that again? We're not so sure of that. As we've seen in the past, the league adjusts to players, and none of them of have had to do that yet, but they will in 2023. 

And as good as Baltimore's bullpen was last year — ninth-best ERA in MLB — Baltimore's starters ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in ERA. That will have to change this year if the O's are going to contend for the division. That's asking for a lot, and while we like Baltimore to finish above .500 again this season, asking such a young team to win the AL East is asking too much. 

New York Yankees (+115)

That brings us back to New York. Everyone knows the Yankees aren't afraid to spend, and that alone will always make them a threat to win the division every year. New York made a plethora of moves at the trade deadline to improve, and even though it didn't win them a World Series, it got them to the ALCS again. 

The Yankees knew they needed to add another arm to bolster their rotation, and signing Carlos Rodon does just that. Rodon led all NL starters in FIP and K/9 last year, and having him behind Gerritt Cole in the rotation gives the Yankees maybe the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball. New York will need Nestor Cortes to pitch like he did again in 2023, and he's capable of doing that with his elite cutter, but after being a pleasant surprise last year, teams will now longer to underestimate the southpaw. 

Most expected Aaron Judge to end up with the Giants, but the Yankees made the reigning AL MVP an offer he couldn't refuse, and keeping Judge in pinstripes makes New York a legit threat to win the World Series. The bullpen was an issue at times for New York, but with Lou Trivino and Clay Holmes at the back end, the Yankees should have no problem closing out games. Getting to those two might be a problem at times, but with three All-Star starters, getting to the back end of the bullpen just got a whole lot easier.

Another reason we love New York to win the division is despite finishing an abysmal 10-18 in August last year, the Yankees still won the division comfortably. It's highly unlikely New York does that again in 2022, and with the addition of Rodon and the re-signing of Judge, the AL East is New York's to lose. And with better than even odds, now is the time to bet on the Yankees to win the division. We don't see this line getting better, so place this bet now before the line drops. 

Team to win AL East: New York Yankees (+115 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Bet $115 to win $100