It's a beautiful day for dingers in MLB, as friendly matchups and even friendlier weather conditions are creating some valuable prices for home run props. Let's take advantage of them with my three favorite HR bets for Thursday's slate.
Adley Rutschman is in the midst of a minor power slump, as he's gone yard just three times in his last 101 at-bats. I think he has a great chance to turn that around against Jose Berrios and the Toronto Blue Jays. In 13 career at-bats against Berrios, Rutschman is batting .615 with two doubles, a homer, and no strikeouts. This is the most encouraging hitter-pitcher matchup on the board Thursday, and we're getting a great price here.
Thursday night's matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics looks like a gold mine for home run props. The wind will be blowing strongly out to left center at Guaranteed Rate Field, creating a massive 53 percent boost to home runs (Ballpark Pal). That's the largest boost I've seen in weeks, yet MLB's sixth-best home run hitter is still +330 to take advantage of the friendly weather conditions. Luis Robert could hit one out on a pop up.
If this game is going to provide some of the best home run conditions of the entire season, it'd be foolish not to double-dip on HR props. Zack Gelof is the hottest hitter in the Oakland A's lineup right now with 18 hits and three home runs in his last 48 at-bats. The second baseman leads the team with a 1.111 OPS over the last 15 days, and I think he's the most likely Athletics hitter to get ahold of one Thursday.
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