I imagine it would be tough having to sit out your entire rookie year when you've worked so hard and dreamed every night of finally making it to the big stage. Especially if you're the #1 pick in the NBA draft; and not just any #1 pick, not a Bargnani or a Bogut, but a highly touted player that every team with a shot at winning the lottery is salivating over, offering superstars in trade offers for that #1 pick. So popular that fan bases in NBA cities who had been watching you grow since high school got together at sports bars on a day in May waiting for the lottery results to see if they can win a miracle just to draft you.
So what happens when you miss that entire year? It turns out that fans have a short attention span; at least fans outside of the city you were drafted in, who still argue with opposing fans that they should "just wait and see." That "he'll be incredible!"
The word going around a lot of fans outside of Portland is that Greg Oden won't be the superstar that fans last summer used to think he would be. Most of them seem to have fuzzy memories, but many of them are doubting his offensive potential. They say he's injury prone, and has been since before he played his first game in college. Some of them even question whether or not he has the killer instinct to win.
How did he go from being "a sure thing Hall-of-Famer" to this in one year? He's been out of the spotlight for many NBA fans, and in sports, fan interest drops when you aren't being talked about. It's doubly so if you've never even played your first pro game. Missing your first full year is rare. So rare in fact, that's it's hard to think of many legends that have done it. Michael Jordan missed most of his second year, but he'd already had an outstanding rookie season. People were aware that he was something special at the NBA level already. With nothing to compare Greg with at the NBA level, fans are going to have doubts.
Don't say anything like that around Portland, though. Trail Blazer fans haven't forgotten about the centerpiece of their dynastic dreams; and with the unexpected rise of the third youngest roster in NBA history, finishing the year 41-41 (the first and second youngest? Chicago's 15-67 in 2001 and Baltimore's 16-56 in 1954 respectively), the addition of Greg (and Rudy Fernandez, Europe's ULEB MVP) seems to put them in the running for a playoff spot next year.
But today the NBA's best man in the paint is Dwight Howard, and until someone is able to keep up with him, it would be premature to say it won't remain that way. That being said, I personally feel that Greg Oden's potential to be one of the elite players in the NBA hasn't waned at all. Let's address the concerns.
First of all, many people talk about his offensive capabilities. Nobody seems to question his defense, so we'll leave that subject alone. Let me first mention this: Greg Oden averaged 15.7 points per game at Ohio State, in a major conference, his Freshman year. By comparison, Kevin Durant averaged 25.8 per game as a Freshman. When you make that comparison, considering that they're in the same class, it's easy to think that one of these two is lacking on at least one end of the floor. But I've looked at every single major center in the history of the game, and not a single one has ever averaged that much as a Freshman. Some of them never even played their Freshman year (well, the ones older than the 1980's usually didn't). And none of them were forced to play almost the entire season with their off-hand.
That by itself doesn't necessarily mean that he's guaranteed scoring titles, and I'm not saying he will win any. But he is impressive to behold under the basket. He's a physical and athletic specimen. He jumps high and runs very well for a big man, and he's one of the strongest players to have played his position in college (while he was rehabing this season, he added 30 pounds of upper-body muscle). He'll get offensive rebounds and putbacks, which means he'll get to the foul line a lot. He shot 62.8% at the line using only his left hand almost the entire year at Ohio State. In high school he shot 78.3% right-handed, and the last time I checked they still give you those uncontested in the NBA. Not to mention that Portland is going to run a few plays for him. He's had nothing to do, aside from rehab, but work on his 15-foot jumpshot. This would be his fallback if he were unable to hammer it down more than a few times a night.
Secondly, people have concerns about his injuries and whether or not that will hold him back. We can't say that he'll be injury free after he makes his full recovery, but that doesn't mean we can say he won't be. Microfracture surgery didn't stop Amare Stoudemire (twice), or Jason Kidd from becoming great players. Oden was healthy enough that he was practicing with the Trail Blazers a month before the 2008 season ended. He could have played, not at 100%, but Portland chose to wait for a full recovery to be safe. He missed three Summer League games due to having his tonsels removed (which hampered his breathing in the other two Summer League games he played in). That won't be a problem anymore. Having a cast on his right hand most of the year at Ohio State didn't keep him from playing there for all but the first month of the season where he helped put together a 27-3 regular season record (35-4 overall) and eventually led them to the National Championship game after they took it off.
Third, some people have wondered whether or not he has the will to win. A player that is as dominant as he has been hyped should be putting up better numbers than he has, right? If you have asked this question, or something like it, did you feel that playing through most of a season injured isn't showing will? That leading his team all the way to a championship game on a team full of Freshmen was not enough? That working himself back into shape ahead of schedule isn't somewhat impressive? That attending a majority of the games (even some of the road games) for a team he's never played with before isn't enough of a good attitude? That doing the work of the towelboys making icepacks for players in the locker room when he's the #1 pick doesn't display how much he cares? I think people see him as very laidback. I'd challenge anyone to prove to me that you can't be a happy-go-lucky person and still win titles.
You might not think any of this is convincing enough to make you change your mind. If that's the case, then I guess we'll really have to wait and see. But until then, at least concede that he could just as easily be a legend someday as he could not be. Have your doubts if you must, but don't say "he'll never be a superstar" based on what you haven't seen.
So what happens when you miss that entire year? It turns out that fans have a short attention span; at least fans outside of the city you were drafted in, who still argue with opposing fans that they should "just wait and see." That "he'll be incredible!"
The word going around a lot of fans outside of Portland is that Greg Oden won't be the superstar that fans last summer used to think he would be. Most of them seem to have fuzzy memories, but many of them are doubting his offensive potential. They say he's injury prone, and has been since before he played his first game in college. Some of them even question whether or not he has the killer instinct to win.
How did he go from being "a sure thing Hall-of-Famer" to this in one year? He's been out of the spotlight for many NBA fans, and in sports, fan interest drops when you aren't being talked about. It's doubly so if you've never even played your first pro game. Missing your first full year is rare. So rare in fact, that's it's hard to think of many legends that have done it. Michael Jordan missed most of his second year, but he'd already had an outstanding rookie season. People were aware that he was something special at the NBA level already. With nothing to compare Greg with at the NBA level, fans are going to have doubts.
Don't say anything like that around Portland, though. Trail Blazer fans haven't forgotten about the centerpiece of their dynastic dreams; and with the unexpected rise of the third youngest roster in NBA history, finishing the year 41-41 (the first and second youngest? Chicago's 15-67 in 2001 and Baltimore's 16-56 in 1954 respectively), the addition of Greg (and Rudy Fernandez, Europe's ULEB MVP) seems to put them in the running for a playoff spot next year.
But today the NBA's best man in the paint is Dwight Howard, and until someone is able to keep up with him, it would be premature to say it won't remain that way. That being said, I personally feel that Greg Oden's potential to be one of the elite players in the NBA hasn't waned at all. Let's address the concerns.
First of all, many people talk about his offensive capabilities. Nobody seems to question his defense, so we'll leave that subject alone. Let me first mention this: Greg Oden averaged 15.7 points per game at Ohio State, in a major conference, his Freshman year. By comparison, Kevin Durant averaged 25.8 per game as a Freshman. When you make that comparison, considering that they're in the same class, it's easy to think that one of these two is lacking on at least one end of the floor. But I've looked at every single major center in the history of the game, and not a single one has ever averaged that much as a Freshman. Some of them never even played their Freshman year (well, the ones older than the 1980's usually didn't). And none of them were forced to play almost the entire season with their off-hand.
That by itself doesn't necessarily mean that he's guaranteed scoring titles, and I'm not saying he will win any. But he is impressive to behold under the basket. He's a physical and athletic specimen. He jumps high and runs very well for a big man, and he's one of the strongest players to have played his position in college (while he was rehabing this season, he added 30 pounds of upper-body muscle). He'll get offensive rebounds and putbacks, which means he'll get to the foul line a lot. He shot 62.8% at the line using only his left hand almost the entire year at Ohio State. In high school he shot 78.3% right-handed, and the last time I checked they still give you those uncontested in the NBA. Not to mention that Portland is going to run a few plays for him. He's had nothing to do, aside from rehab, but work on his 15-foot jumpshot. This would be his fallback if he were unable to hammer it down more than a few times a night.
Secondly, people have concerns about his injuries and whether or not that will hold him back. We can't say that he'll be injury free after he makes his full recovery, but that doesn't mean we can say he won't be. Microfracture surgery didn't stop Amare Stoudemire (twice), or Jason Kidd from becoming great players. Oden was healthy enough that he was practicing with the Trail Blazers a month before the 2008 season ended. He could have played, not at 100%, but Portland chose to wait for a full recovery to be safe. He missed three Summer League games due to having his tonsels removed (which hampered his breathing in the other two Summer League games he played in). That won't be a problem anymore. Having a cast on his right hand most of the year at Ohio State didn't keep him from playing there for all but the first month of the season where he helped put together a 27-3 regular season record (35-4 overall) and eventually led them to the National Championship game after they took it off.
Third, some people have wondered whether or not he has the will to win. A player that is as dominant as he has been hyped should be putting up better numbers than he has, right? If you have asked this question, or something like it, did you feel that playing through most of a season injured isn't showing will? That leading his team all the way to a championship game on a team full of Freshmen was not enough? That working himself back into shape ahead of schedule isn't somewhat impressive? That attending a majority of the games (even some of the road games) for a team he's never played with before isn't enough of a good attitude? That doing the work of the towelboys making icepacks for players in the locker room when he's the #1 pick doesn't display how much he cares? I think people see him as very laidback. I'd challenge anyone to prove to me that you can't be a happy-go-lucky person and still win titles.
You might not think any of this is convincing enough to make you change your mind. If that's the case, then I guess we'll really have to wait and see. But until then, at least concede that he could just as easily be a legend someday as he could not be. Have your doubts if you must, but don't say "he'll never be a superstar" based on what you haven't seen.
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