Now that we wee what has befallen Greg Oden, it begs the question: Why is it that all great college players suck in the NBA?
That is not always true, but many scouts in the NBA and NFL are swayed by individual performances/statistics about players away from the field. For example, when the Philadelphia 76ers selected Shawn Bradley with the 2nd overall pick in the 1993 NBA draft, they did so because he was 7' 6''. At that time, he was the tallest player in NBA history. Certainly, he should be able to be a quality player because he is so tall. The scouts did not bother to look at Bradley's overall numbers in college at BYU. They focused on potential and flash and not performance and substance. Thus, as a result, quality college players like Penny Hardaway and Jamal Mashburn were selected afterwards.
The same result occurred ten years later in 2003, when the Pistons selected Darko Milicic as the 2nd overall pick ahead of the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade. The Pistons saw a young 7' 0'' Center/Forward who could shoot from Serbia and salivated. They did not care that Anthony has just led Syracuse to the NCAA championship or that Wade led a talentless Marquette team to the Final Four.
However, regardless of how some players play in college, they are still not able to adjust to the NBA. Generally, white American players no longer perform well in the NBA. (See Christian Laettner, Keith Van Horn, Mike Dunleavy, Adam Morrisson). Of course, there are exceptions to every rule (Kirk Heinrich). Generally, these players are finesse players that have difficulty playing tough. They are great scorers, but they lack defensive and rebounding skills.
But, rest assured, there is no exact science. Plently of amazing players were either never drafted or drafted much later than they should have been because of their lack of imposing physical attributes on paper. (See Ben Wallace, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Carlos Boozer, Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker). All of these players were selected after the first 20 picks in their respective drafts, and all are playing all-star caliber ball.
Occassionally, a team will draft on potential and get lucky (See Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, etc.), but those picks are few and far between. For every Kobe Bryant (#13 in 1996), there is a Kwame Brown (#1 in 2001). Picks like Bryant and Garnett merely perpetuate the myth that drafting potential is better than performance.
Lesson: Draft on performance to minimize risk. Spend your money more wisely on established FA who have already proven their ability on the pro level.
That is not always true, but many scouts in the NBA and NFL are swayed by individual performances/statistics about players away from the field. For example, when the Philadelphia 76ers selected Shawn Bradley with the 2nd overall pick in the 1993 NBA draft, they did so because he was 7' 6''. At that time, he was the tallest player in NBA history. Certainly, he should be able to be a quality player because he is so tall. The scouts did not bother to look at Bradley's overall numbers in college at BYU. They focused on potential and flash and not performance and substance. Thus, as a result, quality college players like Penny Hardaway and Jamal Mashburn were selected afterwards.
The same result occurred ten years later in 2003, when the Pistons selected Darko Milicic as the 2nd overall pick ahead of the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade. The Pistons saw a young 7' 0'' Center/Forward who could shoot from Serbia and salivated. They did not care that Anthony has just led Syracuse to the NCAA championship or that Wade led a talentless Marquette team to the Final Four.
However, regardless of how some players play in college, they are still not able to adjust to the NBA. Generally, white American players no longer perform well in the NBA. (See Christian Laettner, Keith Van Horn, Mike Dunleavy, Adam Morrisson). Of course, there are exceptions to every rule (Kirk Heinrich). Generally, these players are finesse players that have difficulty playing tough. They are great scorers, but they lack defensive and rebounding skills.
But, rest assured, there is no exact science. Plently of amazing players were either never drafted or drafted much later than they should have been because of their lack of imposing physical attributes on paper. (See Ben Wallace, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Carlos Boozer, Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker). All of these players were selected after the first 20 picks in their respective drafts, and all are playing all-star caliber ball.
Occassionally, a team will draft on potential and get lucky (See Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, etc.), but those picks are few and far between. For every Kobe Bryant (#13 in 1996), there is a Kwame Brown (#1 in 2001). Picks like Bryant and Garnett merely perpetuate the myth that drafting potential is better than performance.
Lesson: Draft on performance to minimize risk. Spend your money more wisely on established FA who have already proven their ability on the pro level.
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