NBA Game 2 best bets: Expert picks, player props, odds for Tuesday 4/23

Mavericks vs. Clippers

Tuesday, April 23, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Mavs -2.5 (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I have Dallas winning the series, so I feel like I have to do this.

But ultimately, I am expecting balanced to be restored in Game 2.

Dallas is the best road favorite against the spread in the NBA this season at 19-5, were 24-9 to end the season, including a 13-6 record on the road.

I don't think James Harden is going to do that again, and the Mavericks role players won't be essentially a zero save for PJ Washington alongside the traditional star production from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

If the Mavs lose this, they probably lose the series, because Kawhi Leonard would loom with five games remaining and a 2-0 lead in their back pocket. But Dallas shot 39/30/76 to the Clippers 46/50/85. We get a more balanced game, and I like Dallas provided that Ivica Zubac doesn't look like a damn All-Star again.

Pick: Mavs -2.5

Pacers vs. Bucks

Tuesday, April 23, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Pacers +1 (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

I think you can chalk the Pacers Game 1 loss up to outlier bad shooting. They shot 20% from three on mostly catch and shoot shots while the Bucks were able to shoot 40% from 3 on mostly Lillard pull-ups. If we see those numbers converge here we will see a much tighter competitive game.

The Pacers also had an offensive rebounding edge inn that game rebounding 28% of their misses while the Bucks generated an offensive rebound rate of 14%, per Cleaning the Glass. The Pacers had a pretty good process they just unfortunately caught Dame Lillard on a heater while they couldn’t put the ball in the ocean regardless of how open they were.

Expect positive regression for the Pacers and expect them to head back to Indianapolis tied up 1-1 after tonight.

Pick: Pacers +1

Pacers vs. Bucks

Tuesday, April 23, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Tyrese Haliburton Double-Double (ESPN BET)

By Joe Dellera

The Pacers look to even up the series 1-1 against the Bucks and Tyrese Haliburton needs to have a bigger game for them.

In game 1, Haliburton struggled to find his own shot but the threshold for 10 points is low enough that it’s worth bringing in as a juice reducer here.

As for the assists, he racked up 8 in Game 1 off of 20 potential assists. That was an uptick in potentials and a downturn in conversions from his regular season numbers.

From a scheme perspective, I think the shots his teammates were getting are ones the Bucks want to allow. Siakam took 15 shots off of Haliburton’s passes and Turner took 11. Turner cannot create for himself but Siakam lives in the midrange and at the rim – Milwaukee will continue to allow the midrange shots and have an excellent rim defender in Brook Lopez.

Also, just from watching the game, the Pacers could not buy a 3. The team was 3/16 (18.75%) from 3 off of Haliburton’s passes – that is a substantial downturn from their 35.3% team 3 point percentage in the regular season.

I expect more shots to find the bottom of the net, and I’ll grab Haliburton to secure a Double Double as low as (-130), if the juice is too much for you there hit over 10.5 assists.

Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Double-Double

Pacers vs. Bucks

Tuesday, April 23, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Pacers +1.5 (FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

I was on Pacers in Game 1, I'm on them in the series and I'm on them for 1.5 games on the series spread. I'm 0-1 so far with Game 1 going squarely to the Bucks and the rest have yet to be decided, but I still believe we got an outlier game from Dame, whose only eclipsed 35 games six times all season. The Bucks, understandably, went 5-1 in those games and if he scores 35 first-half points again, the Pacers are in trouble… again. But I don't think that will happen. Dame failed to score at all in the second half and I think both are outlier performances.

Expect Dame to come back down to earth and the Pacers role players to not look like they saw a ghost. This was the second-best offense in the league during the regular season and they played the game they wanted to by getting out in transition. They just couldn't execute, but I expect improvement on that front.

If regular season profile holds, this is a bad matchup for Milwaukee, especially without Giannis.

Pick: Pacers +1.5

Mavericks vs. Clippers

Tuesday, April 23, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
P.J. Washington Over 5.5 Rebounds (-102, FanDuel)

By Michael Arinze

The Mavericks looked unprepared in Game 1 as the Clippers ran out to a 34-22 lead in the first quarter despite not having their best player, Kawhi Leonard.

Los Angeles began the game running its offense through Ivica Zubac, with the center registering a double-double (12 points and 10 rebounds) in the first half.

Zubac finished the game with a playoff-high in scoring (20 points) while grabbing 15 boards as Los Angeles outrebounded Dallas 46-41.

Considering both teams are pretty even in the rebounding department, with Dallas 22nd (50.7) and Los Angeles 25th (50.2), look for the Mavericks to do a better job of containing Zubac, who averaged 9.9 rebounds this season.

One player likely to continue attacking the glass is Mavericks forward P.J. Washington. Washington recorded the third-most minutes for Dallas (37), and he could have a more significant role, with Mavericks center Daniel Gafford logging only 14 minutes after sustaining an ankle injury during the game.

With a total of 217 already bet down from 219, the market expects a lower-scoring game, which would be consistent with what we’ve seen in the playoffs thus far.

The Clippers shot 18-of-36 (50%) from the perimeter, and that trend simply isn’t sustainable.

Given Washington’s expected usage, he should log enough minutes to go over his rebounding prop of 5.5. While he averaged 5.6 rebounds during the season, he finished with at least seven rebounds in two meetings against the Clippers.

Given that there’s always a chance of an inverse correlation between a low total and rebounding, Washington fits the profile of a player worth targeting for rebounds.

Pick: P.J. Washington Over 5.5 Rebounds (-102)

Mavericks vs. Clippers

Tuesday, April 23, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
James Harden Under 19.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Want to guess the last time James Harden had back-to-back 20-point games in the playoffs?

It hasn't happened in the same series since the Brooklyn Nets destroyed the Boston Celtics in Round 1 of their 2021 series.

If you want to be generous, you could count his 22 in the Nets final game of that run, the Game 7 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, and Harden's 22 against the Toronto Raptors the next year in his Sixers playoff debut.

So, yes, Kawhi Leonard isn't expected to play, yet this is still a "do it again" bet for one of the more underwhelming star playoff performers of his era.

And as someone who likes the Mavs in this game, Harden is the guy who likely falls off from a stellar Game 1 so that could happen.

Pick: James Harden Under 19.5 Points

Mavericks vs. Clippers

Tuesday, April 23, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Luka Doncic Over 43.5 PR (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Mavericks are in a 1-0 hole and despite making a late push in Game 1 were never really close.

One of the reasons was Luka scored just 11 points in the 1H as the whole Mavericks team scored just 8 2Q points.

Here, I expect a significant uptick in production.

Luka played 43 minutes in Game 1 which is an uptick from his season long number of 37.6. This is a must-win game for Dallas considering teams with home court advantage up 2-0 are a whopping 89-5 in the first-round overall series results.

When Luka played 35+minutes he’s averaging 44.6 PR and at 40+ minutes this season he has averaged 45.9 PR, exceeding this line in 61% of games.

The key here is I expect the minutes to be there. The Mavericks could not buy a bucket in the 1H of Game 1, but should be able to build off of their success in the 2H.

I like Luka to exceed 43.5 PR.

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 43.5 PR