TIGHT ENDS: Do they have fantasy impact?
As your draft approaches, this is always a question that will come to mind. The truth is that this position has the least impact on your fantasy team, behind Kickers and Defensive Units. I have tried to break this down into those who will have a fantasy impact, what type of impact, and where they rank in relation to each other. (Unfortunately, it will depend on point assignment by league and quality of GMs to determine "where" in the draft you should take them)
1. Antonio Gates: In 2004, I avoided drafting a tight end until my last pick, partly because the major guns were taken WAY TO EARLY in my opinion, but also because I love to pick the "out of nowhere" player of the year...(this backfires as much as it pans out...I'll take the 50/50 shot on a position that has less impact than a kicker or defense.) I selected Gates with the last pick of the draft (Imagine, Antonio Gates selected as "Mr. Irrelevant") Expect him to play a bigger role in the offense, but that does not necessarily equate to more statistics than 2006. He will be covered harder, with more zones dedicated to him, and there are more and more teams relying on 4-3 defense which better handles the "slot" receiver, in which the majority of his routes are based.
2. Todd Heap: Set to be the only viable option to Steve McNair (who loves his TE's), you can expect him to put up similar numbers than he has in the past. Although littered with injuries over the past 3 years, if he stays healthy, I believe him to be able to put up statistics better than Tony Gonzalez (limited WR options for QB) & Jeremy Shockey (limited WR options and questions at RB).
3. Vernon Davis*: The answer to your question is YES, I do have him before Shockey & Gonzalez. Vernon has a solid RB, quality, but not truly elite WRs (Battle, Jackson) and a solid QB in Alex Smith (my sleeper pick at QB). Alex has grown accustomed to the short dump pass (mostly due to the lack of speed at WR)...
4. Tony Gonzalez: Due to the lack of WR depth (Are you drafting Eddie Kennison or Eric Parker?), and the contract issues with L/J, it appears that he IS the offense (but I still think he won't do as much as you want him to) Tony has lost a step at the least, has grown injuries more consistently, and generally has no support in the WR corp. leaving him succeptible to double coverage and zone packages focused solely on him.
5. Jeremy Shockey: Shockey has a history of injury that is re-DONK-ulous... Eli is shaky, Jacobs needs time to grow as the starter, Toomer is out for the year, Plaxico is...well...Plaxico. I have, nor ever will draft Shockey for this very reason...he is a great football TE, just not a fantasy points guy...
6. Alge Crumpler: Whether it be Michael or Joey, this position is going to be important. There isn't much for the WR corp, Dunn is hurt and Norwood is unproven. What else is there?
7. Chris Cooley: Just looking at his name at number 7 looks weird, but we are talking fantasy impact, not quality and "namesake". Cooley has the knack and ability to where you need him to be, as a quarterback, and as a fantasy GM. He can also spot as a fullback and run with it, too. With Jason Campbell working out the kinks, I foresee him relying on Cooley when Moss is unavailable.
8. Kellen Winslow: Health is this kids only obstacle. Whether Charlie or Brady, they need this kid to spread the offense and make it work. With Jamal Lewis powering up the middle, it should free up some more space in the slot for Kellen to become all that they hoped him to be. The defense can't necessarily cheat as Braylon Edwards has the speed to burn you.
9. Jason Witten: With Owens sore back, Glenn's trick Knee, and the lack of consistency out of the backfield (who will it be today, Jones or Barber), one thing is for sure, if the Cowboy's want to right the wrong of last season, Jason MUST be an integral part. Count on him to put up numbers better than he has in any previous year.
10. Greg Olsen*: Here is a player that will be a saviour to Rex Grossman. In the past, when a decision had to be made, Desmond Clark was often times to big/slow to beat his man and get open when Grossman was in trouble. With WR like speed, consider Olsen a slot receiver with excellent hand-eye coordination playing a TE position. It is safe to say that on running plays, he will be limited in action because of the lack of skills at blocking (experience only), but all in all, this kid is the next big thing at TE.
11. Daniel Graham: He can block, he can catch, and he is part of a growing offense with Cutler at the helm. Great news for Daniel, as most new QBs will rely on the tight end to bail them out of difficult situations. I expect him to actually be better than 11 by the end of the year, just too hard to justify picking him before the rest.
12. Ben Watson: Expect better numbers out of him now that Graham is gone, but not much more with the arrival of a littany of WR talent (Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Washington). It appears that Graham just may have gotten the better deal leaving in free agency, although Patriots fans wouldn't have wanted it any other way.
13. Randy McMichael: He has had his "drops" issues, his off-field issues, and his injury issues, but I believe he is in the right place at the right time. He has a quarterback with accuracy and confidence, a solid offensive line, excellent receivers, and a running back that has all ready established himself as a game-changer. All that leads to one thing, plenty of open/mid-field opportunity for Randy to get the yards, and red zone opportunity to put up some points.
14. Heath Miller: He had to deal with his own injury, then his quarterbacks...now it is time to reap the benefit of an offense that appears to be shifting from punishing run attacks to more of a spread offense. Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Willie Parker are all going to get their looks, but that should not mean that Heath won't get his fair share within the goal line opportunities. Look for him to look like the player of 05, not so much 06.
15. L. J Smith: He has the ability to get up-field, the hands to grab almost anything, and as long as McNabb & Westbrook stay healthy, he should be look to on more occasions than he has had in the past. The WR corp is young, fast, but not necessarily reliable. In steps Smith, who has been solid throughout his career and demonstrated that he has all the potential to fulfill McNabb's "last minute, go to guy".
16. Dallas Clark: Some will wonder HOW I rank him at 16. It's simply resolved in four names, Harrison, Wayne, Addai, and Manning. Sorry Dallas, you will get your shots, but I am sorry to say that unless you are against an aging MLB (see Pats vs. Colts, 06'), you aren't going to get the looks you want...he is serviceable to start, but don't expect weekly outputs, more of a "if he get's something, great, if not, oh well"
17. Owen Daniels: Had he not been on the Texans, he would easily escalate up the charts. He is fundamentally sound, solid hands, average to above average speed, can block, and has great fantasy potential as the number two out for Matt Schaub (which is something that goes for him...new quarterback with weak o-line, means lots of short passes due to broken blocking plays). He will match his output of last year and only increase if Matt Schaub becomes the next Brady/Romo...
18. Bo Scaife: He is the dark horse of the position. With Young at the helm, anything can happen, including ridiculous numbers out of Bo. This will be a better year than any previous,steven but not sure that the Titans, even with Young, have what it takes to establish a solid offense enough to spread the ball (run/pass, alike) to open up the undeniably talentend Scaife. A bargain sleeper if the top 10 are gone and you have better positions to fill.
19. Jerramy Stevens: He has had the serious case of the "dropsies", but with Garcia at the helm, cadillac in for repair every two weeks, Gallaway as the only deep threat, this could be what he needs. Garcia is a quick drop, sideline to sideline quarterback with high accuracy, low yards per catch. Stevens WILL be an excellent option if you are picking through the garbage for something to throw on your roster and have potential to do "something".
20. Chris Baker: I like Chris. He plays for a team that is up-and-coming, has solid hands, can block fairly well, but what interests me is that he will have a solid RB (T.Jones, L. Washington), two very good WR (L. Coles, J. Cottchery), and Pennington with one healthy year under his belt and looking forward, not back. Chris should flashes of brilliance early in the season, but spent the better part of the last half of the season nursing injuries. Under "Man-Genius", this offense is ready to make a run at the playoffs, and I believe that Chris will have a great shot at being a part of it,especially with two WR who love to run deep.
* Ultimate keeper league players.
Well, that is it for now as I venture into the statistics of the business world. Stay tuned for our next Fantasy Insight installment, Kickers: Factors to make a solid Kicker pick.
Statistocrat
Original Story:
http://www.screamingsports.com/en/public....
As your draft approaches, this is always a question that will come to mind. The truth is that this position has the least impact on your fantasy team, behind Kickers and Defensive Units. I have tried to break this down into those who will have a fantasy impact, what type of impact, and where they rank in relation to each other. (Unfortunately, it will depend on point assignment by league and quality of GMs to determine "where" in the draft you should take them)
1. Antonio Gates: In 2004, I avoided drafting a tight end until my last pick, partly because the major guns were taken WAY TO EARLY in my opinion, but also because I love to pick the "out of nowhere" player of the year...(this backfires as much as it pans out...I'll take the 50/50 shot on a position that has less impact than a kicker or defense.) I selected Gates with the last pick of the draft (Imagine, Antonio Gates selected as "Mr. Irrelevant") Expect him to play a bigger role in the offense, but that does not necessarily equate to more statistics than 2006. He will be covered harder, with more zones dedicated to him, and there are more and more teams relying on 4-3 defense which better handles the "slot" receiver, in which the majority of his routes are based.
2. Todd Heap: Set to be the only viable option to Steve McNair (who loves his TE's), you can expect him to put up similar numbers than he has in the past. Although littered with injuries over the past 3 years, if he stays healthy, I believe him to be able to put up statistics better than Tony Gonzalez (limited WR options for QB) & Jeremy Shockey (limited WR options and questions at RB).
3. Vernon Davis*: The answer to your question is YES, I do have him before Shockey & Gonzalez. Vernon has a solid RB, quality, but not truly elite WRs (Battle, Jackson) and a solid QB in Alex Smith (my sleeper pick at QB). Alex has grown accustomed to the short dump pass (mostly due to the lack of speed at WR)...
4. Tony Gonzalez: Due to the lack of WR depth (Are you drafting Eddie Kennison or Eric Parker?), and the contract issues with L/J, it appears that he IS the offense (but I still think he won't do as much as you want him to) Tony has lost a step at the least, has grown injuries more consistently, and generally has no support in the WR corp. leaving him succeptible to double coverage and zone packages focused solely on him.
5. Jeremy Shockey: Shockey has a history of injury that is re-DONK-ulous... Eli is shaky, Jacobs needs time to grow as the starter, Toomer is out for the year, Plaxico is...well...Plaxico. I have, nor ever will draft Shockey for this very reason...he is a great football TE, just not a fantasy points guy...
6. Alge Crumpler: Whether it be Michael or Joey, this position is going to be important. There isn't much for the WR corp, Dunn is hurt and Norwood is unproven. What else is there?
7. Chris Cooley: Just looking at his name at number 7 looks weird, but we are talking fantasy impact, not quality and "namesake". Cooley has the knack and ability to where you need him to be, as a quarterback, and as a fantasy GM. He can also spot as a fullback and run with it, too. With Jason Campbell working out the kinks, I foresee him relying on Cooley when Moss is unavailable.
8. Kellen Winslow: Health is this kids only obstacle. Whether Charlie or Brady, they need this kid to spread the offense and make it work. With Jamal Lewis powering up the middle, it should free up some more space in the slot for Kellen to become all that they hoped him to be. The defense can't necessarily cheat as Braylon Edwards has the speed to burn you.
9. Jason Witten: With Owens sore back, Glenn's trick Knee, and the lack of consistency out of the backfield (who will it be today, Jones or Barber), one thing is for sure, if the Cowboy's want to right the wrong of last season, Jason MUST be an integral part. Count on him to put up numbers better than he has in any previous year.
10. Greg Olsen*: Here is a player that will be a saviour to Rex Grossman. In the past, when a decision had to be made, Desmond Clark was often times to big/slow to beat his man and get open when Grossman was in trouble. With WR like speed, consider Olsen a slot receiver with excellent hand-eye coordination playing a TE position. It is safe to say that on running plays, he will be limited in action because of the lack of skills at blocking (experience only), but all in all, this kid is the next big thing at TE.
11. Daniel Graham: He can block, he can catch, and he is part of a growing offense with Cutler at the helm. Great news for Daniel, as most new QBs will rely on the tight end to bail them out of difficult situations. I expect him to actually be better than 11 by the end of the year, just too hard to justify picking him before the rest.
12. Ben Watson: Expect better numbers out of him now that Graham is gone, but not much more with the arrival of a littany of WR talent (Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Washington). It appears that Graham just may have gotten the better deal leaving in free agency, although Patriots fans wouldn't have wanted it any other way.
13. Randy McMichael: He has had his "drops" issues, his off-field issues, and his injury issues, but I believe he is in the right place at the right time. He has a quarterback with accuracy and confidence, a solid offensive line, excellent receivers, and a running back that has all ready established himself as a game-changer. All that leads to one thing, plenty of open/mid-field opportunity for Randy to get the yards, and red zone opportunity to put up some points.
14. Heath Miller: He had to deal with his own injury, then his quarterbacks...now it is time to reap the benefit of an offense that appears to be shifting from punishing run attacks to more of a spread offense. Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Willie Parker are all going to get their looks, but that should not mean that Heath won't get his fair share within the goal line opportunities. Look for him to look like the player of 05, not so much 06.
15. L. J Smith: He has the ability to get up-field, the hands to grab almost anything, and as long as McNabb & Westbrook stay healthy, he should be look to on more occasions than he has had in the past. The WR corp is young, fast, but not necessarily reliable. In steps Smith, who has been solid throughout his career and demonstrated that he has all the potential to fulfill McNabb's "last minute, go to guy".
16. Dallas Clark: Some will wonder HOW I rank him at 16. It's simply resolved in four names, Harrison, Wayne, Addai, and Manning. Sorry Dallas, you will get your shots, but I am sorry to say that unless you are against an aging MLB (see Pats vs. Colts, 06'), you aren't going to get the looks you want...he is serviceable to start, but don't expect weekly outputs, more of a "if he get's something, great, if not, oh well"
17. Owen Daniels: Had he not been on the Texans, he would easily escalate up the charts. He is fundamentally sound, solid hands, average to above average speed, can block, and has great fantasy potential as the number two out for Matt Schaub (which is something that goes for him...new quarterback with weak o-line, means lots of short passes due to broken blocking plays). He will match his output of last year and only increase if Matt Schaub becomes the next Brady/Romo...
18. Bo Scaife: He is the dark horse of the position. With Young at the helm, anything can happen, including ridiculous numbers out of Bo. This will be a better year than any previous,steven but not sure that the Titans, even with Young, have what it takes to establish a solid offense enough to spread the ball (run/pass, alike) to open up the undeniably talentend Scaife. A bargain sleeper if the top 10 are gone and you have better positions to fill.
19. Jerramy Stevens: He has had the serious case of the "dropsies", but with Garcia at the helm, cadillac in for repair every two weeks, Gallaway as the only deep threat, this could be what he needs. Garcia is a quick drop, sideline to sideline quarterback with high accuracy, low yards per catch. Stevens WILL be an excellent option if you are picking through the garbage for something to throw on your roster and have potential to do "something".
20. Chris Baker: I like Chris. He plays for a team that is up-and-coming, has solid hands, can block fairly well, but what interests me is that he will have a solid RB (T.Jones, L. Washington), two very good WR (L. Coles, J. Cottchery), and Pennington with one healthy year under his belt and looking forward, not back. Chris should flashes of brilliance early in the season, but spent the better part of the last half of the season nursing injuries. Under "Man-Genius", this offense is ready to make a run at the playoffs, and I believe that Chris will have a great shot at being a part of it,especially with two WR who love to run deep.
* Ultimate keeper league players.
Well, that is it for now as I venture into the statistics of the business world. Stay tuned for our next Fantasy Insight installment, Kickers: Factors to make a solid Kicker pick.
Statistocrat
Original Story:
http://www.screamingsports.com/en/public....
