Just part of one of my blog posts, wanted to share it on YardBarker.
And it is that time of the year again, fantasy football drafts. And it is that time of the year where I have to completely rip the consensus rankings. Normally each year I write up my top 20 and just compare it to ESPN, RotoWire, and Sportsline to see who I may be able to hold off for another round, after that it is too undpredictable who is going to go early or late, so I rely on luck. This year here is my top 20, why I put them their, and the players ranking from ESPN, Sportsline, RotoWire, respectively:
1. LT (1,1,1) - No justification needed.
2. Steven Jackson (2,2,2) - Can run it, can catch it, in the Marshall Faulk mold.
3. Willis McGahee (13,13,22) - Sure his career YPC is not very pretty (3.9), but he is finally going to a team with a good offensive line (yes I know they are not what they used to be), and a quarterback who can actually play (no offense JP). He plays in a run first offense and will get plenty of help that he has needed. I take a reach on 1 injury prone guy every year (Portis last year, Holmes the years before), so I may be second guessing myself once the season starts. However, he will top 1500 yards and get 15+ TD's, write that down.
4. Larry Johnson (3,3,4) - Sure he carried the ball last year as much as a dump truck should, but he is only 27, and with Dwayne Bowe I really see KC helping him out.
5. Shaun Alexander (5,4,11) - I am a little scared off by last year's injury, but he has been too good for too long to write him off just yet.
6. Willie Parker (7,9,7) - Ya his 100 yard games come off 20 1 yard carries, and 1 80 yarder, but he is too explosive and does it too often to not be valuable, not to mention the offense focuses around him. He is only 26 and is already a better version of Brian Westbrook.
7. Peyton Manning (8,6,34) - The most consistant fantasy football player there is. I usually let someone else be the one to draft Manning because QB is my favorite position to pick a sleeper in, and I would rather get Bulger 5 rounds later. But at this point he is too good to pass up.
8. Frank Gore (4,5,3) - I know I probably should rank him higher, he saved a half dozen of my teams last year, but I can not help but think that defenses will work on stopping him. The emergence of Alex Smith and the aquisition of Darrell Jackson will help him a lot, but I would rather see him play at such a high level two years in a row before I jump him to the top.
9. Brian Westbrook (9,7,8) - Why is Jeff Garcia getting all the credit for saving the Eagles? They could have started someone like Ben Roethlisberger and still have won. With the great play of McNabb and his ability to get in the headlines, Westbrook is often overshadowed. He is explosive like Willie Parker and is probably the best pass catching back in the league. The only reason he is not higher is because he is not the best player on his side of the ball, which plays into how and how often he gets the ball.
10. Rudi Johnson (10,10,12) - As good as it gets as a running back, however he does not catch the ball enough to leap frog some of the guys ahead of him. With that said, he is one of the most consistant backs in the league, and depending on my mood, I may take him 5 spots earlier.
11. Travis Henry (17,11,10) - Wow, I can not believe there is a consensus startin RB in Denver so early in the year. Denver RBs are always excellent in that offense, and if he does not lose too many carries to Mike Bell, then he will prove to be very underrated.
12. Ronnie Brown (12,15,15) - Last year, I would not have touched him until the 5th round, and that was only if I NEEDED a RB. He did not play as horribly as I thought he was going to, and another season under his belt should help him A LOT. And as long as Trent Green stays healthy, defenses will not be able to put 8 in the box.
13. Laurence Maroney (11,14,6) - I am not a huge fan of unproven youngsters, so this is mostly a hype pick, but New England runs a terrific offense, and Maroney has shown he can catch the ball well enough that he does not have to wear himself down to be effective.
14. Clinton Portis (25,22,21) - This may be a reach for someone so fragile, but I am a huge fan of his ON THE FIELD, and I do not see him sharing as many carries with Betts as many people think. The only reason I do not have him listed in the top 5 is because of the risk of the above mentioned.
15. Thomas Jones (23,27,28) - Can this guy ever catch a break? Sure he is not flashy and only has 2 1,000 yard seasons in 7 years, but he HAS put up two straight 1k yard seasons. He lost a lot of carries to Benson last year, and I do not see Leon Washington taking many chances from him. 1300/10 is very reasonable.
16. Chad Johnson (21,18,25) - The most exciting WR to watch (yes more than Stevie) both on and off the field. He is big, he is fast, and he can catch. I would not be surprised at all if he posted 1500/12.
17. Marvin Harrison (16,16,26) - By far the best WR last year, however he is getting old and I do not want to be the guy who picks him up on his down year. I can not really knock him on anything else.
18. Joseph Addai (6,8,5) - Again, I am not sold on unproven youngsters. He did have an excellent season last year, but his carries were not consistent, and I am not sure how he will do as the full time starter. The reason he is ranked so high everywhere else is because he plays with Manning. I will let someone else invest a first rounder on him.
19. Cedric Benson (22,23,17) - I know he is an unproven youngster, but I can not help but think power backs develop faster than ones who rely on finesse of their catching game. I see him producing a lot like Rudi Johnson when he hits his peak, but when will that be?
20. Steve Smith (15,25,13) - I feel kind of bad putting him this low, and depending on the situation I might take him sooner, but like Parker, one of the reason his numbers are so inflated is because of his explosiveness. I still remember a play from the 2005 playoffs, I do not remember the game, but he was running full speed and literally just stopped to avoid a defender. That is how good he is. However, Carolina does not really have an option other than him. Until they get a running game or a better reciever to play across from him, his numbers will suffer.
Notable cuts: Reggie Bush (14,12,14) - Basically I am not a huge fan of a guy who is not guaranteed the most carries on the team. However he is so diverse, and SO explosive that I really hope he proves me wrong.
Maurice Jones-Drew (19,20,9) - Again like Bush he may only get 10-15 carries, if even that. And also like Bush he has a diverce side, he is likely to get the green light for goal line carries.
My ultimate sleeper is part of my favorite off season signings: Drew Bennett. Once you think St. Louis's offense can not get any better, they go out and sign a top Receiving TE (McMichael), and one of the best deep threats in the NFL (Bennett). With Holt, Bruce, Jackson, McMichael all on the field, Bennett is going to get open. He is one of the best vertical receivers because he is so fast and tall. 1200/10 would not surprise me one bit. He is going to be remembered as the best #3 WR of the decade.
Original Story:
http://sportsobsessions.blogspot.com/.
And it is that time of the year again, fantasy football drafts. And it is that time of the year where I have to completely rip the consensus rankings. Normally each year I write up my top 20 and just compare it to ESPN, RotoWire, and Sportsline to see who I may be able to hold off for another round, after that it is too undpredictable who is going to go early or late, so I rely on luck. This year here is my top 20, why I put them their, and the players ranking from ESPN, Sportsline, RotoWire, respectively:
1. LT (1,1,1) - No justification needed.
2. Steven Jackson (2,2,2) - Can run it, can catch it, in the Marshall Faulk mold.
3. Willis McGahee (13,13,22) - Sure his career YPC is not very pretty (3.9), but he is finally going to a team with a good offensive line (yes I know they are not what they used to be), and a quarterback who can actually play (no offense JP). He plays in a run first offense and will get plenty of help that he has needed. I take a reach on 1 injury prone guy every year (Portis last year, Holmes the years before), so I may be second guessing myself once the season starts. However, he will top 1500 yards and get 15+ TD's, write that down.
4. Larry Johnson (3,3,4) - Sure he carried the ball last year as much as a dump truck should, but he is only 27, and with Dwayne Bowe I really see KC helping him out.
5. Shaun Alexander (5,4,11) - I am a little scared off by last year's injury, but he has been too good for too long to write him off just yet.
6. Willie Parker (7,9,7) - Ya his 100 yard games come off 20 1 yard carries, and 1 80 yarder, but he is too explosive and does it too often to not be valuable, not to mention the offense focuses around him. He is only 26 and is already a better version of Brian Westbrook.
7. Peyton Manning (8,6,34) - The most consistant fantasy football player there is. I usually let someone else be the one to draft Manning because QB is my favorite position to pick a sleeper in, and I would rather get Bulger 5 rounds later. But at this point he is too good to pass up.
8. Frank Gore (4,5,3) - I know I probably should rank him higher, he saved a half dozen of my teams last year, but I can not help but think that defenses will work on stopping him. The emergence of Alex Smith and the aquisition of Darrell Jackson will help him a lot, but I would rather see him play at such a high level two years in a row before I jump him to the top.
9. Brian Westbrook (9,7,8) - Why is Jeff Garcia getting all the credit for saving the Eagles? They could have started someone like Ben Roethlisberger and still have won. With the great play of McNabb and his ability to get in the headlines, Westbrook is often overshadowed. He is explosive like Willie Parker and is probably the best pass catching back in the league. The only reason he is not higher is because he is not the best player on his side of the ball, which plays into how and how often he gets the ball.
10. Rudi Johnson (10,10,12) - As good as it gets as a running back, however he does not catch the ball enough to leap frog some of the guys ahead of him. With that said, he is one of the most consistant backs in the league, and depending on my mood, I may take him 5 spots earlier.
11. Travis Henry (17,11,10) - Wow, I can not believe there is a consensus startin RB in Denver so early in the year. Denver RBs are always excellent in that offense, and if he does not lose too many carries to Mike Bell, then he will prove to be very underrated.
12. Ronnie Brown (12,15,15) - Last year, I would not have touched him until the 5th round, and that was only if I NEEDED a RB. He did not play as horribly as I thought he was going to, and another season under his belt should help him A LOT. And as long as Trent Green stays healthy, defenses will not be able to put 8 in the box.
13. Laurence Maroney (11,14,6) - I am not a huge fan of unproven youngsters, so this is mostly a hype pick, but New England runs a terrific offense, and Maroney has shown he can catch the ball well enough that he does not have to wear himself down to be effective.
14. Clinton Portis (25,22,21) - This may be a reach for someone so fragile, but I am a huge fan of his ON THE FIELD, and I do not see him sharing as many carries with Betts as many people think. The only reason I do not have him listed in the top 5 is because of the risk of the above mentioned.
15. Thomas Jones (23,27,28) - Can this guy ever catch a break? Sure he is not flashy and only has 2 1,000 yard seasons in 7 years, but he HAS put up two straight 1k yard seasons. He lost a lot of carries to Benson last year, and I do not see Leon Washington taking many chances from him. 1300/10 is very reasonable.
16. Chad Johnson (21,18,25) - The most exciting WR to watch (yes more than Stevie) both on and off the field. He is big, he is fast, and he can catch. I would not be surprised at all if he posted 1500/12.
17. Marvin Harrison (16,16,26) - By far the best WR last year, however he is getting old and I do not want to be the guy who picks him up on his down year. I can not really knock him on anything else.
18. Joseph Addai (6,8,5) - Again, I am not sold on unproven youngsters. He did have an excellent season last year, but his carries were not consistent, and I am not sure how he will do as the full time starter. The reason he is ranked so high everywhere else is because he plays with Manning. I will let someone else invest a first rounder on him.
19. Cedric Benson (22,23,17) - I know he is an unproven youngster, but I can not help but think power backs develop faster than ones who rely on finesse of their catching game. I see him producing a lot like Rudi Johnson when he hits his peak, but when will that be?
20. Steve Smith (15,25,13) - I feel kind of bad putting him this low, and depending on the situation I might take him sooner, but like Parker, one of the reason his numbers are so inflated is because of his explosiveness. I still remember a play from the 2005 playoffs, I do not remember the game, but he was running full speed and literally just stopped to avoid a defender. That is how good he is. However, Carolina does not really have an option other than him. Until they get a running game or a better reciever to play across from him, his numbers will suffer.
Notable cuts: Reggie Bush (14,12,14) - Basically I am not a huge fan of a guy who is not guaranteed the most carries on the team. However he is so diverse, and SO explosive that I really hope he proves me wrong.
Maurice Jones-Drew (19,20,9) - Again like Bush he may only get 10-15 carries, if even that. And also like Bush he has a diverce side, he is likely to get the green light for goal line carries.
My ultimate sleeper is part of my favorite off season signings: Drew Bennett. Once you think St. Louis's offense can not get any better, they go out and sign a top Receiving TE (McMichael), and one of the best deep threats in the NFL (Bennett). With Holt, Bruce, Jackson, McMichael all on the field, Bennett is going to get open. He is one of the best vertical receivers because he is so fast and tall. 1200/10 would not surprise me one bit. He is going to be remembered as the best #3 WR of the decade.
Original Story:
http://sportsobsessions.blogspot.com/.
