Will Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys win the Super Bowl? ESPN seems to think so. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN projects surprising team as Super Bowl LVII favorite

By Mike Santa Barbara | Last updated 12/7/22

The Dallas Cowboys trail the Philadelphia Eagles for the top spot in the NFC East. However, according to ESPN, the Cowboys are overwhelming favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Per ESPN's projections, the Cowboys have a 29.3 percent chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the highest in the NFL.

The three teams directly behind the Cowboys are all division leaders: the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Eagles. The AFC West-leading Chiefs have the next-highest percentage at 22.9 percent, followed by the Buffalo Bills, who lead the AFC East, at 23.7 percent.

As former NFL player-turned-insider, Ross Tucker pointed out, perhaps the most shocking takeaway from the projections is where the 11-1 Eagles stand. Despite the Eagles' strong play this season, they have only the fourth-best chance at winning the Super Bowl at 12.5 percent.

Big fan of analytics/data/information/etc. but there's no way the Cowboys have more than twice as good a chance to win the Super Bowl as the Eagles. ‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/DrTAFmxCN8
— Ross Tucker (@RossTuckerNFL) December 6, 2022

While ESPN predicts the Cowboys will make a run to a title, other projections aren't as kind.

Per Football Outsiders' playoff scenarios, the Eagles lead the way with a 23.8 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, followed by the Bills (18.5 percent), Cowboys (15.1 percent) and Chiefs (10.5 percent).

Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus' projections are crowded at the top, with the Eagles, Bills and Chiefs having an equal chance of winning it all at 17 percent, followed by Dallas at nine percent.

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