Week 4 AFC South predictions: Colts have a chance to take firm division lead

The AFC South split their games last week with the Texans and Colts picking up impressive wins over the Jaguars and Ravens, respectively. Here are predictions for Week 4’s slate of games:

Houston Texans (1-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1): After a bumpy first two weeks, the Texans found a bit of a groove against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. C.J. Stroud has been excellent the last two weeks, throwing for a combined 664 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, and Nico Collins and Tank Dell have emerged as two legit options in the receiving game.

It's been difficult trying to figure out who exactly the Steelers are. They looked awful in a Week 1 drubbing to the 49ers, edged out the Browns for a solid win in Week 2 and their defense shut down the Raiders, who aren’t exactly known as an offensive dynamo, last week. This game should be a true test for whether Pittsburgh is for real or not. But because of their defense, which leads the NFL in sacks (13) and is second in takeaways (eight), I give the Steelers the slight edge.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Texans 17

Indianapolis Colts (2-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams (1-2): A win over the Baltimore Ravens is nothing to bat an eye at, and the Colts accomplished it with Gardner Minshew running the show instead of rookie Anthony Richardson. If Richardson misses this game as well, Indy still has a good chance of winning. Minshew threw for 227 yards and a touchdown against the No. 10-ranked Ravens defense last week, and he’s plenty capable of putting up similar numbers against the Rams.

Matthew Stafford appears to have recovered from his spinal cord injury just fine, and even without top receiver Cooper Kupp, he ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards (910) while rookie wideout Puka Nacua is second in the league in receptions (30) and fourth in yards (338). The Colts pass defense ranks in the bottom third of the league, so it’s likely Stafford has a big game.

PREDICTION: Rams 24, Colts 21

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-1): Through three games, the Jaguars — and to a degree quarterback Trevor Lawrence — haven’t played to expectations. Few will knock them for losing to the Chiefs in Week 2, but a 20-point loss to rebuilding Houston, which has a first-year head coach, leaves much to be desired. Lawrence has thrown three touchdowns and two interceptions, and he has just one completion over 30 yards. The Falcons have the No 4 pass defense in the NFL, so there’s little optimism this is the week the 23-year-old rights the ship.

Conversely, Atlanta is 2-1, but one of those wins was against a debuting Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers, and the other Jordan Love essentially handed them on a silver platter. Against a team with a good offense and good quarterback last week, the Falcons got smoked. Desmond Ridder isn’t the answer at QB, so if Jacksonville jumps out to a two-score or more lead, the Falcons might not have the firepower to catch up.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 28, Falcons 14

Tennessee Titans (1-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2): Tennessee is going through a serious identity crisis right now, and it’s honestly hard to watch. After looking like world-beaters in Week 2 against the Chargers, Tennessee come out flat against the Browns, mustering just 94 yards of offense and averaging 2.1 yards per play. Derrick Henry, who had 11 carries for 20 yards, logged his fewest rushing yards and averaged his fewest yards per carry since December 2017. The Titans offensive line can’t block anyone, Ryan Tannehill can’t throw to anyone and Tim Kelly isn’t a good enough offensive coordinator to mask either of those deficiencies.

If there were ever a game for Joe Burrow to get his act together, this one is it. The Titans have one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. They rank 23rd in passer rating against (109), tied for 26th in touchdowns allowed (five), 28th in yards allowed per game (275.3) and yards per completion (11.7), and 29th in completion percentage allowed (72). This should be the game for Burrow to get his mojo back.

PREDICTION: Bengals 35, Titans 20