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Rangers’ 2024-25 Player Profiles: Igor Shesterkin
Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

With the recent firing of head coach Peter Laviolette, it is clear that the New York Rangers‘ organization is wasting no time trying to right the ship from a disastrous 2024-25 season. But outside of organizational scrutiny, it is also important to analyze the players themselves in an effort to try and predict and rearrange the roster for the following season.

When it comes to player analysis from the 2024-25 season, perhaps no player is more polarizing than Igor Shesterkin. There are many who see his low save percentage (SV%) and expensive contract (he is owed $11.5 million for each of the next eight seasons) as one of the main reasons for the Rangers’ failures this season. There are other fans who point the finger at the Rangers’ horrific defense and argue that the situation would, in fact, be far worse were it not for Shesterkin’s consistency and reliability.

Durability

Shesterkin shouldered a massive workload for the Rangers this season. He played in 61 games, tied for fourth in the NHL. He faced 1,751 shots on goal and made 1,584 saves, both of which led the league. It is no easy feat for a goalie to be available for the entire season and durable enough to start over 60 games. Especially for the 2024-25 Rangers, who had a season marked by turmoil and inconsistency, it was critical that they could at least rely on Shesterkin to consistently start the majority of their team’s games.

Low Save Percentage, But Great Advanced Metrics

On the surface, Shesterkin’s .905 SV% does not look great. It represents the lowest mark of his career by a significant amount and is not the number the Rangers had in mind when they signed him to his massive contract.

But put in context, this number is actually quite impressive. For one, the league average SV% this season was .900, the league’s lowest since the 1995-96 season. Many pundits’ expectations have not adjusted to this fact, and goalies are often held to a standard of .910, even though that is now a considerably above-average number. With this in mind, Shesterkin’s SV% was actually in the 64th percentile of the league.

The second important point is that the Rangers’ defense was atrocious. They gave up 198 high-danger shots against and 552 medium-danger shots against, good for fourth and second most in the league, respectively. These metrics categorize opponents’ shots by their location on the ice: high-danger shots are essentially shots in the house area, while medium-danger shots are those in the slot and hashmarks area. What this means is that Shesterkin was facing a lot of shots from dangerous areas of the ice, a statistic that is backed by the eye test of the Rangers’ apathetic defensive performance this season.

In light of these factors, it should not be particularly surprising that Shesterkin had a 21.6 goals saved above expected, which ranks him seventh-best in the league.

High Expectations Due to His Contract

While all the numbers indicate that Shesterkin was an above-average goaltender this season, the unfortunate truth is that they need him to be even better if they are to get appropriate value out of his contract. He is 29 years old and under contract for $11.5 million in each of the next eight seasons. The next three seasons, give or take, are his prime, and after that he will likely begin to experience a decline. The length and quantity of his contract have put enormous pressure on Shesterkin to carry the Rangers from the goalie position. While his underlying numbers and availability were above average, the Rangers need him to be even better if they want a true chance at a Stanley Cup.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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