Yardbarker: Kurt Thomas

Rumors and Free Agent Updates - Lots of Signings Edition

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 08:16:08 -0500

Former Celtic Sebastian Telfair isn't the only player who plays with guns. Hornets' guard Rasual Butler was arrested June 23 after witnesses told Miami Beach police a man holding a firearm had made threats. Based on the arrest report, when police arrived at the scene, Butler was seated in the back seat of a sport utility vehicle. When officers asked Butler if he had any weapons, he told them he didn't, but that his gun was in the car. The police found an automatic weapon that was cocked and had a bullet in the chamber on the floor of the car. Butler was scheduled to enter a plea on Wednesday, but the hearing was reset for Aug. 4. First, the Clippers signed Baron Davis away from the Warriors. Then, the Warriors signed Corey Maggette away from the Clippers. But the Warriors were not about to let the Clippers get another of their players if they could help it. They have matched the offer that the Clippers made last week to Kelenna Azubuike. The Warriors also signed Ronny Turiaf away from the Lakers, who chose not to match the offer, and they signed their second round draft pick, forward Richard Hendrix. The Warriors then completed a very busy day by re-signing their free agent guard Monta Ellis to a six-year, $67 million contract. Ellis got quite a raise in that as the 40th player selected in the 2005 draft, Ellis was paid just $770,610 last season. He will earn $11 million in 2008-2009. Ellis was the Warriors' shooting guard last season, playing next to Baron Davis, but with Davis' departure, he is expected to move to point guard this season. By keeping Azubuike, the Warriors will no longer pursue free agent swingman Maurice Evans who was reported to have signed with the Warriors. But, a Warriors source told Bay Area News Group that Evans spurned their three-year, $6.4 million looking for more money, and so the Warriors changed direction and matched the Azubuike offer. There have been rumors that the Celtics have contacted Evans and it seems that he would be a nice fit for the Celtics who could use an athletic swingman like Evans who's known as a solid defender and good three-point shooter (sound like anyone the Celtics just lost?). The Warriors still have unfinished business though as they haven't re-signed free agent Andris Biedrins. Biedrins' top choice is to stay with the Warriors. He is looking for a salary somewhere in the ballpark of the five-year, $50-plus million. With the other signings for the Warriors, it looks like that kind of a deal is out for Biedrins, however. He could reject any Warriors' offer and accept the $3.6 million qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next offseason or he could accept any of several lucrative contracts being offered by European teams. Just hours after bringing former Nugget Chris Anderson back to the team, the Denver Nuggets agreed to a one-year deal with free agent guard Dahntay Jones. Jones was drafted by Boston in 2003 but sent to Memphis in the trade that brought Kendrick Perkins and Marcus Banks to Botson. Jones was also given a look by the Celtics last season in training camp. After a good showing in Summer League, the Nuggets gave Jones a one-year fully guaranteed deal for the NBA minimum of $926,678. Some money details are coming out on a couple of big deals. The Express News reports that The deal that the Spurs gave Kurt Thomas was for a total of $8 million — $4.2 million next season and $3.8 in 2009-10. The Spurs have also signed Anthony Tolliver, who impressed on the Spurs' summer league squad, to a partially guaranteed contract. This is similar to the contract the Celtics signed Brandon Wallace to after his impressive summer league last season. Details on Josh Childress' contract with Olympiakos have emerged. His contract is worth $32.5- million over 3 years. The Hawks had offered five years at $33 million but it wasn't enough to keep Childress from jumping the NBA ship for Europe. After landing the big free agent of the offseason in luring James Posey away from Boston, the Hornets are trying to re-sign their own free agents. They are hoping to resign Jannero Pargo who wants a three-year deal but they lost Chris Andersen to the Nuggets. Word is that they are going to let Bonzi Wells walk but may make an offer to try to keep Ryan Bowen. With the official signing of Anthony Roberson on Wednesday, the Knicks now officially have 16 contracts which is one more than the NBA max and their league high payroll is once again over $100 million at $100,161,287. They need to do something and odds are that with a crowded backcourt, Marbury and his $21.9 million contract may be the one to go. other options may be Malik Rose, or one of the other smaller contracts like Balkman or Collins who have a team option for the 2009-2010 season. Sebastian Telfair's three-year deal with the Wolves is worth $7.5 million with $2.3 million this coming season and an option to stick with the Wolves in 2010-2011 for $2.7 million. Reports are that the Wolves appear to be getting closer to re-signing Ryan Gomes. Their offer will probably be in the $3 million a year range. There aren't many teams who can offer much more than that left in the hunt for free agents. After losing one of their free agents, the Lakers are still trying to come to an agreement with their other free agent, Sasha Vujacic. Vujacic is seeking a multiyear deal from the Lakers averaging about $5 million a year. Vujacic was hoping for a six-year deal, but anticipated it could be a shorter contract. However, word from Vujacic is that he is prepared to leave the team and accept an offer from a European team in the next few days if the Lakers don't make him an offer he considers to be fair. East Valley Tribune suggests that the flexibility that Matt Barnes will give the Suns makes Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa expendable and might open the door for them to go after Kirk Hinrich who they have been interested for some time. I still think that Barnes would have been a great pick up for the Celtics, especially since he signed for a minimum contract. It seems as though the Blazers will spare nothing to try to dissuade teams from signing Darius Miles and thus put his $9 million in salary back on their club. First there was the leaking of the details of his suspension to the median. Now, Blazers GM is giving out details of Miles' injury that could land him in hot water. From the Sports Tribune: "Two doctors said Darius had the worst microfracture injury they had ever seen," Pritchard said on an Oregonlive.com blog this week. "They would never have him play basketball and the odds of having knee replacement surgery is high. I hear that, and as a general manager, I didn't want it on my conscience – that I had a kid have to go through a knee replacement surgery. That's a pretty major surgery. They saw (two bones) and replace (the knee). It's a bad deal." In a story posted April 14 on the Portland Tribune's Web site, Pritchard said, "The doctors had actually said, 'If you were my son, I'd never have you pick up a basketball again.' I'm the kind of GM (that) I wouldn't want that on my head that he ever had to have knee replacement." By revealing the specific details of Miles' injury, Prichard is in violation of the privacy provisions in the Health Insurance Portability and Availability Act of 1996. All of the underhanded activity by the Warriors in trying to prevent teams from giving Miles a chance make me really hoping the kid gets his comeback. Besides, I still am angry over the league not giving the Celtics any relief when Reggie Lewis died. I really hope Miles comes back and sticks it to the Warriors. Josh Childress has opened the flood gates for NBA players considering jumping to Europe for lucrative deals when they can't get what they feel they are worth in the NBA. The latest to consider the jump is former Celtic Delonte West. Russian basketball team Dynamo Moscow is discussing a two-year, $10 million offer with Cleveland Cavaliers guard Delonte West, according to source close to West. Delonte is a restricted free agent and he could sign a $2.76 million qualifying offer for the 2008-09 season and become an unrestricted free agent next year if he chooses to stay in the NBA and doesn't feel that the Cavs are offering enough. Delonte has been plagued with various injuries throughout his career so far and so taking the qualifying offer is risky if he is unable to stay healthy and earn a bigger payday next season.

Rumors and Free Agent Updates - Options are Dwindling Edition

Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:51:04 -0500

Options are dwindling for both teams and free agents as teams continue to make moves. Here is what is going on around the league today: Josh Childress has indeed left the Hawks to play in Greece. The Journal Constitution is reporting that Childress has agreed to a a three-year, fully guaranteed contract worth far more than the $20 million originally proposed. It will remain to be seen how this affects NBA free agency in the future. Any player not getting what they want can flaunt a European contract at their team and will have to be taken seriously. But, there are still many players who want to be in the NBA even if they are making far less than they could in Europe. Josh Smith, the Hawks' other big free agent, was wined and dined by the Sixers and then they signed Brand. Then, he was wined and dined by the Clippers before they got Camby. Now, the only team under the cap that could offer him more than the MLE is the Grizzlies but they are in cost cutting mode. So, it seems that Josh Smith is stuck with the Hawks unless they can work a sign and trade with someone. Sources say that the Hawks are offering Smith a six-year deal worth $60 million. The Journal Constitution is reporting that this isn't true, however and that the Hawks have never offered anything near that. The San Antonio Spurs re-signed 36 year old Kurt Thomas on Tuesday. Thomas joined the Spurs last season in the trade that sent Brent Barry and Francisco Elson. In a rather fishy move, Barry was released by the Sonics and went back to the Spurs to join new teammate Kurt Thomas. Thomas' return could put in question the return of Robert Horry and Michael Finley's to the Spurs. When the Nets acquired Keyon Dooling, Marcus Williams vowed to fight for his job as the Nets' point guard. He may be fighting for his job, but not with the Nets as they traded him to the Warriors for a future first-round pick. The Warriors are going to give Williams a chance to start along side of Monta Ellis, who is more of a shooting guard than a point. First Camby was traded to the Clippers for a second round pick and now Williams traded for a first round pick. Must be nice to be under the cap and able to pick up players for peanuts (and draft picks). The Warriors pick has plenty of strings attached, though. The pick is lottery protected for 2011. If it goes to 2012, the pick is protected 1-11. It's protected 1-10 for 2013. If they still haven't received the pick by 2013, the Nets get second-round picks in 2013 and 2015. ESPN reports that Detroit has offered to trade Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince twice this off season already. The first time was to try to pry Carmelo Anthony away from Denver. The second offer was to Houston for Tracy McGrady. Both offers were rejected. With the rumors that Detroit is considering making a bid for Artest they could be making a 3rd attempt to trade Billups and Prince. There seems to be some smoke here and there may be some fire behind it. It would be interesting to see the crowd react to Ron Ron being introduced to the Palace crowd for the first time as a Piston. Talk about mixed emotions. Personally I wouldn't want Artest for anything. The guy has been a cancer and a distraction everywhere he has gone. Ryan Gomes is such a classy person. The Star Tribune reports that Gomes is participating in the Wolves' summer promotional caravan. He doesn't have a deal with the Wolves but is on their promotional tour. "I made a commitment at the end of the season to do this," Gomes said from Mankato. "They (the team) asked me if I'd like to do this and I'm a community guy, so I said yes. I don't know where I'm going to be yet. I made a commitment and stuck with it." Gomes is looking for the full MLE but chances of getting it are dwindling. It seems unlikely that the Wolves wouldn't match anything less. I would really like to have him back in Celtics Green but all the Celtics could offer is half the MLE and unless Danny has incriminating pictures of McHale, the Wolves would probably match any offer we could afford to give. At this point in his career, he is looking for some security and possibly accepting the qualifying offer and then seeing what he can get as an unrestricted free agent next season could be his best move. As hard as Gomes works, his value should only improve. Mark Bartelstein has said that several teams, including the Celtics have inquired about his client, Devean George. In his interview on WEEI, Danny said that he hasn't had any talks with George. So, either Bartelstein is floating rumors to try to get other teams to make an offer before another team snaps him up or Danny is not wanting to tip his hand. I remember Danny being interviewed on WEEI another time as the trade deadline approached when he said that the Celtics had nothing in the works and nothing even close. Four hours later, the Celtics traded for Wally Szczerbiak. So, you can't trust what an agent says or what Danny tells you for that matter. The News Herald reports that Bartelstein is also in talks with the Cavs concerning George. Now that the Celtics have signed House and Allen, Danny says that he is taking some time off. He may make another deal, or he may roll the dice with the team we have. The Celtics lost Pollard, PJ Brown, Cassell and Posey. The Celtics have 2 promising rookies who could fill in the blanks. Gabe Pruitt should be able to fill in at the Point along with House. Tony, if healthy, can replace Posey's defense. Giddens and Walker may get a chance to prove themselves. Danny may go with what we have now and then save space to pick up someone if there is a need later on. The Charlotte Observer reports that negotiations with Emeka Okafor are at an impasse. He has one more year left and if they don't agree on an extension, he can walk after next season as an unrestricted free agent. Rather than let him walk for nothing next season, the Bobcats may try to arrange a sign and trade. Some possibilities for a sign and trade swap are Shawn Marion, Anderson Varejao, Andris Biedrins, Al Harrington, and Luol Deng. Delonte West is still unsigned. The News Herald reports that the Cavs want to sign him but that they aren't close to an agreement at this point. Other teams are interested but have been scared off by his restricted tag, figuring that since the Cavs do want him, they will just match any offer made. Daniel Gibson signed a 5 year contract with the Cavs that starts at $3.7 million and West is looking for more since he is the starting PG and Gibson is the back up. Of course, if they can't reach an agreement, Delonte could just accept the Cavs' qualifying offer of $2.76 million, play out the year, and the become an unrestricted free agent next year. That could be good or bad for him. If he has a great year, he will demand even more money next season. If he continues to be nagged with little injuries and struggles, then as a restricted free agent, he may not get as much as he would now. It's a gamble that may or may not pay off. The Express News is reporting that it appears that Robert Horry's days with the Spurs are over. Big Shot Bob has won 7 rings in his 16 seasons in the league. He has said that he wants to play another season in the league but the Spurs don't seem inclined to bring him back. Unless he gets an offer from another team, he may be forced to retire. Could Big Shot Bob be the next aging veteran to come on board the Celtics? Danny loves these guys who seem to be on their last legs but who have tremendous experience and can help a team in little ways. Horry fits the profile. The Portland Trail Blazers signed first-round pick Nicolas Batum on Tuesday. Batum was actually drafted by Houston with the 25th overall pick and then traded to the Blazers for two draft picks. This brings the team's roster to 14 players. They still have not made a decision on whether to sign Petteri Koponen. They don't feel he is ready for the NBA this season, but if they don't sign him now, he will likely sign a long term contract in Europe. If they sign him, he could spend some time in the D-League and accelerate his development. The Clippers signed Golden State forward Kelenna Azubuike (8.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg) to a three-year, $9.3 million offer sheet last week and the Warriors have until Friday to match the offer, but according to sources they won't match it because they signed forward Maurice Evans to a three-year, $6.4 million deal. We are about to enter into the quiet (read completely dead) part of the season for Celtics fans. Danny is going to take some time off. He lost one free agent and brought back 2 others. He still has to deal with the Celtics 2 draft picks and possibly pick up another free agent or even make a minor trade. But keep in mind, it wasn't until the end of August that Danny signed Posey last season and so he may wait until the dust settles to make another move. Reports are that Bill Walker is working hard to come back from the knee surgery and depending on how he looks, Danny may not make another move. If ready to contribute, Walker could be the back up at the 3 that the Celtics still need. I like the kid and think he could prove to be the steal of the draft.

Tuesday Evening NBA Headlines

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:35:38 -0500

After acquiring Keyon Dooling, the Nets have traded PG Marcus Williams to the Golden State Warriors for a future first round pick. The Spurs have re-signed F/C Kurt Thomas. Nets SF Bostjan Nachbar has decided to sign with Russia's Dynamo Moscow team for a reported $14.3 million over three years. Emeka Okafor may be an ex-Bobcat by the end of 2009. The Timberwolves have agreed to a multiyear deal with PG Sebastian Telfair. Atlanta Hawks free agent SF Josh Childress is strongly considering an offer to play for the Greek Olympiakos team after receiving a three-year, $20 million offer.

Cross Kurt Thomas Off The List Too

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:54:15 -0500

Kurt Thomas re-signs with Spurs. (http://www.kansascity.com/490/story/715140.html) The San Antonio Spurs announced the re- signing of forward/center Kurt Thomas on Tuesday. Per team policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Cross Kurt Thomas Off The List Too

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:54:15 -0500

Lakers have spoken to Kurt Thomas' agent

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 01:06:24 -0500

Faced with the possibility that they may lose their own back-up center, restricted free agent Ronny Turiaf, the Lakers have spoken to the agents for unrestricted free agents Kurt Thomas and James Posey.

Salary Cap Day Updates

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:51:34 -0500

The League will announce the new salary cap numbers today and at midnight, free agents can begin signing with teams so tomorrow looks to be a busy day for free agent news, but for now, here is what is going on around the league. Paul Pierce spoke to the media from his basketball camp just around the corner from TD Banknorth Garden. He had this to say about the knee that he injured in game 1 of the Finals. Pierce said the knee is still sore, but is getting better, and noted that he's been treating his injury "like a sprain that normally takes three-four weeks." "I've still got some soreness in it, so hopefully it's nothing major requiring surgery," Pierce said. "I plan on getting in there this week, getting the treatmentand the MRI and making sure I take care of my body. I doubt if I need any surgery. It's getting better and better. I'm gonna get the MRI just to take the extra precaution but I don't see any surgery in my future and I just plan on getting treatment until it's all the way healed." Pierce also said that now that he has won the championship, he wants to do it again next season. He is planning to spend most of the summer in Boston to work out and prepare for next season. The Herald also reports that Pierce is pushing for the Celtics to do whatever it takes to sign James Posey. He also plans to speak to Posey in hopes to get him to come back to Boston. Pierce also plans to toss in some sentimentality when he speaks with Posey. "You know, I try to tell guys winning a championship with the Boston Celtics is not like winning a championship anywhere else," he said. "I think down the road you forget about certain championship teams, but those Boston teams never get forgotten." "When I talk to him, I'm going to let him know that - the significance of being a Boston Celtic even after basketball. Hopefully I can convince him to come back for whatever the offer we're giving him. I don't really know the offer that (director of basketball operations) Danny (Ainge) and them are talking about. I know it's less than the mid-level and I know there's teams out there probably trying to give him the mid-level." The Bulls are making Ben Gordon, who is a restricted free agent available and are looking for a sign and trade from someone for him. At first the thought was that Heinrich would be on the blocks with the arrival of Derrick Rose, but now it seems that Heinrich will play in the back court along with Rose. That makes Gordon the odd man out. I wonder if they need an energy guy who will be a good locker room guy and bring energy off the bench. If so, the Celtics have just the guy for them. Brian Scalabrine would be just the guy to keep their young guys in line. If the Sixers get their way, they could be one of the most improved players in the league. They have $11 million available to sign a free agent and with the new cap figures, it may be even more. Expect them to make a very lucrative offer to Josh Smith. The Hawks GM has said that he will match any offers, but if the Sixers offer is high enough, the owners may override that and let him go. It would be a mistake for the Hawks if they do because they have the makings of a very good young team and letting Smith go would set them back considerably. The Sixers on the other hand will land someone good with all that money. Trading Iverson was a very good move on their part. Yahoo is reporting that the Philadelphia 76ers have traded forwards Rodney Carney, Calvin Booth and a future No. 1 pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves to free as much as $2 million in additional salary cap space for the Sixers to offer Elton Brand or Josh Smith a deal that will bring one of the two coveted free to Philadelphia. Minnesota is sending Philadelphia its $2.8 million trade exception from the 2007 deal of Mark Blount to the Miami Heat. Cleveland has been very active in free agent talks. They have been rumored to be in talks with Corey Maggette, Monta Ellis, and James Posey who grew up in Cleveland. The Cavs owner is willing to pay the luxury tax and they are trying to prove to LeBron that they mean business by trying to bring in players to help him so that he doesn't bolt the team in 2010 when he becomes a free agent. They are also trying to re-sign Delonte West and Daniel Gibson. They are rumored to be looking into a possible deal with the Bobcats for Raymond Felton as well. Anthony Carter, the Nuggets free agent point guard has received calls from Orlando, New York and Golden State but has said that he will likely sign a deal with the Nuggets for the veteran's minimum. The Nuggets have eight players with guaranteed contracts totaling $78 million, which is already about $8 million over the projected luxury-tax threshold and will need to find free agents willing to sign for the league minimum to fill out the rest of their roster. The Celtics aren't far behind with 9 players under contract totaling $71 million. The Boston Score has an interesting take on Danny inviting Darius Miles to camp. We all remember when Reggie Lewis died, the league refused to give the Celtics any cap relief from his salary. Fast forward a bit and the NBA ruled that Darius Miles had a career-ending knee injury, they wiped the $27.5 million left on his contract off the books. But, the Blazers will lose this relief if Miles plays in at least 10 games over the next 2 seasons. Could Danny be trying to get some measure of revenge from the league by way of the Blazers by trying to prove that Miles is indeed well enough to play in the NBA? Interesting conjecture. The Suns are also looking at Miles. The Celtics said that his workout was impressive but it remains to be seen whether his off court troubles are behind him. He will be suspended for the 1st 10 games of the season for violating the leagues drug policy. The Suns are also interested in signing Tyronn Lue who has been mentioned as a player that the Celtics have looked at as a back up point guard. After reports that he was unhappy at being traded to the Bucks, Richard Jefferson broke his silence with a press conference yesterday. He said that he was unhappy because he felt betrayed by New Jersey and not because of the team that traded for him. He is excited about playing with Michael Redd and the chance to get back to the playoffs. He also said he doesn't expect New Jersey to be back in the playoffs for the next couple of years because of the moves they have made. The Record adds this little tidbit for one of the reason that Jefferson was traded (another being that they got a contract that expires in 2010 in return as they chase the LeBron sweepstakes): Another reason, sources within the organization said, was that change was needed. They said Jefferson was jealous of Vince Carter and became so fixated on making the All-Star team that he focused more on the offensive end – he averaged a career-best 22.6 points last season - and didn't rebound or defend as hard as he did earlier in his career. Regardless of the reasons, I think the Bucks just improved themselves considerably. Exprss News reports that Kurt Thomas would like to return to the Spurs but has received interest from both the Lakers and the Heat. The Spurs' pursuit of Corey Maggette is on the front burner right now and after Maggette makes his choice, then the Spurs (and the other teams that are pursuing him (Pistons, Jazz, Celtics, Magic, Warriors to name a few) will be able to move on to other matters. The Orange County Register reports that along with making a run at James Posey and trying to sign their own free agents Rony Turiaf and Sasha Vujacic, the Lakers are making a play to get Sun Yue, the 6'9" point guard they drafted last season but who opted to stay overseas. The last 6'9" point guard who played for the Lakers did pretty well and they are hoping this one will too. Along with pursuing James Posey and Corey Maggette (isn't everyone?), MLive tells us that the Pistons are looking at a number of prospects on their Summer League team. One of the stronger free agent candidates on Detroit's summer league roster is point guard Will Bynum. Bynum signed with the Boston Celtics prior to the 2005-2006 season, but was waived shortly before the season opener. He will be remembered by Celtics fans because of the incident in Chicago that landed Tony Allen in legal trouble as they were celebrating Bynum's signing with the Celtics. If Bynum plays well this summer, he has a good chance of entering training camp as the team's No. 3 point guard behind Chauncey Billups and Rodney Stuckey. But then again, Detroit News mentions that the Warriors have been trying to unload Al Harrington (two years left worth about $20 million) and they need a point guard. The Pistons could offer Chauncey Billups, but they would want a lot more than Harrington back in return. Just a conjecture on their part, but an interesting one. The Star Tribune reports that Ryan Gomes is going to wait until some of the dust settles on the free agent market and see what is available after players like Posey, Maggette, etc are signed before making a decision whether or not to take the Wolves' one year qualifying offer. If the Celtics lose out on Posey and Maggette, I wouldn't mind making Gomes an offer, but the Wolves can match any offer made so it would be a long shot to get him back. Summer Leagues are in full force. It seems strange not to be watching the Celtics battle it out in Vegas at this time of the year. For so many years, the hopes of the future were pinned on what was going on with those summer league teams. It seems pretty foreign now remembering back to watching Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Leon Powe, Gerald Green and company and thinking that the future was bright, although far away. The Oklahoma City team got its start as a franchise with its summer offering wearing black mesh uniforms with white stripes along the sides and the words "Oklahoma City" across the front of the jersey and atop a simple NBA logo. It is sad in many ways that the Sonics are no more.

NBA Top 10 UFA's

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 08:32:14 -0500

1. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards: Arenas has turned himself into a max player over the past few years and, despite recent knee troubles, will likely cash in on his newfound celebrity status. While he continues to maintain publicly that his first choice is to re-sign with Washington, it's possible that, given his eccentricity, he could change his mind. The biggest issue for Arenas is the same one that plagues all the free agents: Who else has the money to pay him? I can't see the 76ers or Grizzlies spending the cash. The Clippers would have interest, but Arenas already spurned them once. 2. Corey Maggette, Clippers: Maggette has been on the trading block for years and appears eager to bolt the Clippers. He's making $7 million next season and should be due a raise. Teams will be out in force trying to get him, but most will have only the midlevel exception to offer -- which would mean he'd be taking a pay cut. A sign-and-trade is the most likely option, with the Phoenix Suns looking like the team most interested in him. They could offer a swap of Leandro Barbosa that may interest L.A. 3. Antawn Jamison, Wizards: Jamison is still putting up big scoring and rebounding numbers at the age of 32. He even made a surprise appearance at the All-Star Game this past season. Washington will likely try to lock him up, and should have the best shot to do so. With teams capped out, which team is going to spend all of its money on a 32-year-old? 4. DeSagana Diop, Nets: He's only 25, but five points and five boards are about all you're going to get from him. Still, he's big and he plays good defense … meaning some team will blow its midlevel exception on him. I think Dallas is the front-runner to give him a ridiculous deal. 5. Beno Udrih, Kings: The Kings were impressed enough with his play that they felt no remorse in letting Mike Bibby go. But will they be able to keep him? As the only decent unrestricted point guard on the market, Udrih is drawing a lot of interest. Expect him to get multiple offers for the full midlevel from a number of teams desperate for a point guard. I'd put the Clippers at the top of the list. 6. Kurt Thomas, Spurs: He's 35 years old, but still tough enough to help just about any title contender. The Spurs got him in a steal of a deal at the trade deadline. Look for them to try to lock him up with a three-year deal this summer. 7. James Posey, Celtics: Posey helped himself with a strong performance against the Lakers in the Finals. He's another player who should get a three- to four-year midlevel deal somewhere. 8. Mickael Pietrus, Warriors: No one is sure why the Warriors didn't play Pietrus more. He's one of the most athletic defenders in the league and he's a solid 3-point shooter. Some team will pick him up and try to use him in a Bruce Bowen-type role. 9. Ricky Davis, Heat: The talented but troubled swingman hasn't helped his cause in his second tour with Miami. Pat Riley thought, after dumping him the first time, that Davis finally had the maturity to play for him. But Riley is clearly reassessing the situation. Davis looks like a midlevel-or-below type of player. I doubt he returns to the Heat. 10. Kwame Brown, Grizzlies: The former No. 1 pick has run out of excuses. Yes, he's huge, athletic and only 25 years old. But after seven years in the league, he's yet to prove that he's anything more than a backup. Someone will pay him something, but no one is expecting much.

Top Free Agents of '08

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 07:45:39 -0500

ESPN's Chad Ford ranks his top NBA free agents for the summer.

AccuScore - Lakers - Spurs Preview

Tue, 20 May 2008 19:23:58 -0500

The Spurs just keep on winning. They might not be stylish, pretty, or popular, but San Antonio just gets it done behind the big man in the middle, Tim Duncan. The Lakers on the other hand are the glamour team of the NBA. They are young, and play an appealing brand of basketball led by Kobe Bryant. Los Angeles wants another ring, but they will have to go through the champions to get it. Who will survive the rugged West? Let's break it down.

Washington Wizards Future Part IVa: New Additions

Sun, 11 May 2008 14:18:30 -0500

Part 4 of a 4 part series assessing the future of the Washington Wizards is hosted on Bullets Forever. Part 4 is actually broken up into 3 parts, 4a focuses on free agent big men.

New York Knicks Player By Player Report Card

Sun, 27 Apr 2008 13:44:26 -0500

Player by player analysis, grade and video highlights (in some cases low lights) for the 2007-2008 New York Knickerbockers

Spurs Take Game 1

Sat, 19 Apr 2008 20:10:03 -0500

Tim Duncan scored 40 points and added 14 assists, with teammate Manu Ginobili scoring the deciding shot in double overtime in San Antonio's 117-115 home win over the Phoenix Suns. The Spurs, defending NBA champions, take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven series, a rematch of a heated battle in last year's postseason. The next game will be Tuesday night in San Antonio. Ginobili scored eight of his 24 points in the second overtime period. Tony Parker had 26 points for the Spurs, while Michael Finley hit a pair of clutch three-pointers near the end of regulation to help the Spurs force overtime. San Antonio trailed most of the game, by as many as 16 points, taking its first lead with just under two minutes left in the fourth quarter. Victoria native Steve Nash had 25 assists and 13 assist for the Suns. Nash made a three-pointer from the corner to tie the game at 115, but Ginobili drove through the Phoenix lane for the winning shot with under two seconds left. Amare Stoudemire was a force for Phoenix with 33 points. In his playoff debut with the Suns, Shaquille O'Neal helped create room for Stoudemire and contributed 11 points, five rebounds and four blocks. "We had a lot of opportunities to win," O'Neal said. "You can't make mistakes against a team like that especially here in this building." While the Spurs briefly held the lead late in the fourth, they were down 93-90 with 1:10 to go after Leandro Barbosa's fast-break layup. Finley hit his three-pointer with 15 seconds left to force overtime. Nash scored seven points to begin the first overtime for the Suns, but Duncan helped San Antonio claw back, with Stoudemire taking a crucial offensive foul for charging. Duncan drained a three-pointer, his first of the playoffs, with three seconds left to send the game into a second extra period. "I didn't know what was going to happen, honestly," Duncan said. "Manu turned the corner, Shaq just totally leaves me and stayed with Manu." With the Spurs leading by two with just over a minute left in double overtime, Nash missed a three-pointer and Boris Diaw couldn't convert a layup on successive possessions. Nash hit for three on Phoenix's last gasp, but Ginobili soon responded. Last year's series between the clubs was a pitched battle. After San Antonio's Robert Horry fouled Nash hard in Game 4, a melee led to suspensions for Stoudemire and Boris Diaw. San Antonio wrapped up the series in six games. The Spurs won four championships between 1999 and 2007, but have never won in successive seasons.

Important Fantasy Lines: March 12

Thu, 13 Mar 2008 16:53:43 -0500

If each night one had the time, energy and will to look through every NBA stat line, one might be very successful at fantasy basketball. One would be able to pick up emerging studs, drop eventual duds and monitor those ify suds. Unfortunately, a manager rarely has the time to do this, but here at Fantasy Basketball Pros we care about you, so we look through all the lines and tell you in summary form what you really need to know. Here are the most telling fantasy lines from Wednesday.

The San Antonio Spurs' Almost Flawless Execution Beats the Denver Nuggets 107-103, but J.R. Smith Kept the Nuggets Close

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 21:00:39 -0500

As always, more reports and other goodies are at: http://www.nuggets1.blogspot.com The Nuggets are good enough in terms of talent to beat the San Antonio Spurs and they did so three nights earlier in Denver. But in Texas, the Spurs almost always win and this game was no exception. Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner dominated Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby, who was playing with a bruised hip, and the Spurs defeated the Nuggets 107-103, despite heroics from Allen Iverson and especially from J.R. Smith. The loss left the Nuggets 2 1/2 games behind the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final playoff spot in the tough Western Conference. Martin did what he could against Duncan, but Nene is the type of player who has more success against him than the less bulky Martin. Technically, if the Nuggets fail to make the playoffs, it won't really be the full team that missed the playoffs because Nene, a multi-million dollar big man who is big enough to effect the course of a game near the hoop, has been out for essentially the entire season. It is my contention that the Nuggets should make the playoffs regardless of this, but there is little doubt that the Nuggets would have won this game had Nene played in it. J.R. Smith was unbelievable in this game; he was more than twice as productive as usual. Without Smith, the Nuggets would not have been able to hang close with the Spurs as they did. Smith made all the highlight reels. On one play, he squeezed past Duncan along the baseline below the hoop, turned all the way around, and jumped so high over Duncan to make the shot on the other side that Duncan looked useless on the play. And Bruce Bowen started guarding J.R. Smith at one point. One of the ultimate honors you can get in pro basketball, as an offensive player, is if Spurs Coach Greg Popovich orders defensive specialist Bruce Bowen to guard you, because you have to be a major threat to the Spurs for that to happen. Many Nuggets fans who saw the game were convinced that the Nuggets were at least slightly cheated by the refs. Specifically, Nuggets fans could not believe how it was possible that the Nuggets had 22 fouls called against them while the Spurs had only 20. It wasn't just the fans. The Spurs were 22/29 on free throws, while the Nuggets, who in most games get more free throws than their opponent, were 17/23. Carmelo Anthony never even got to the line until 4 ½ minutes left in the game, despite clearly being fouled numerous times earlier. Melo was particularly angry after he was kneed by Duncan and pushed back behind the mid-court line, which resulted in an over and back turnover. Melo's reaction was not very mellow, and he got a very quick technical from a referee. Camby also got a technical in this game, whereas the Spurs, of course, did not get any technicals. There were definitely some instances when the Spurs fouled a Nuggets player but there was no call, and there were definitely some instances when the Nuggets were called for a foul that was questionable at best. For example, in the 3rd quarter, Martin got almost all ball on Parker going to the hoop, and it should have been a jump ball, but it was a foul on Martin. J.R. Smith was clearly fouled while going straight through the paint with just under 3 minutes to go and that wasn't called. With 1:45 left, Parker pushed Iverson to the floor and there was no call. At about that time also, Parker was camped out in the lane for more than 4 seconds and there was no 3-second violation call. These are some of the instances, but there were other instances of calls and non-calls going in favor of the Spurs. I guess the referees were not in the mood to favorably consider the plight of what looks to end up as one of the best teams in the history of sports that failed to make the playoffs. Maybe they figure there must be something really rotten at the core about such a team, which would be ironic since George Karl is one of the few coaches in basketball who thinks that the personalities and characters of players are large factors in determining the fate of a team. Maybe George Karl should have been a referee instead of a coach, since he seems to think more like a referee might think than like other coaches think. The Nuggets fought tooth and nail and led for much of the game. After falling 7 behind midway through the 2nd quarter, they battled back later in the period, mostly with dunks and layups, but also with two long threes by Iverson just before the half time horn. The Nuggets led the Spurs at the half 58-55. In the 3rd quarter, the Nuggets led by as many as seven, but the Spurs went on a 16-5 run to close the quarter and take an 84-80 lead. They started executing flawlessly, while the Nuggets could not keep up despite the best efforts of Iverson and Smith. The Spurs took the lead with 1:37 left in the 3rd with a long 3 by PF Matt Bonner. The Spurs scored on their last 6 possessions to win the game. These were mostly easy shots earned by the Spurs following their usual tactics. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' late in the game shots were mostly difficult shots that were well defended. The Spurs' execution down the stretch was outstanding, while the Nuggets' execution varied from occasional brilliance to total ineptness. I have been discussing the point guard mess and the need for what I call an offensive identity over the last several game reports. You need to have an offensive identity so that you can be consistent on offense, so that you give yourself the best chance to win tough games. You need to have either one dominant, playmaking PG and someone who backs him up, or you need to have two playmakers who more or less share the job. If your playmakers are not established, and they change from game to game, and there are games where the playmaking is spread through most of the team, you will most of the time end up with fewer overall assists than you need, and you will score less than you should because players who should be worried mostly about scoring will be worried too much about assisting. Sure enough, this was another game in which the Nuggets' point guard situation was still a hopeless mess, and their offensive identity was nothing more than wishful thinking that they have one. Let's look at the Spurs to see how an offense is supposed to work. SG Manu Ginobili is such a quick and fluid a mover on the court, and he is such an intelligent player, that he gets more assists than does PG Tony Parker. So the Spurs do not have the perfect set-up, which is where your starting PG gets more assists than anyone else on the team. But they have the next best set-up, and the difference between the two is not that serious a thing. The Spurs do follow the most important thing, which is what I call the minimum requirements to have an offensive identity. I use to call them guidelines, but from now on I am calling them requirements, because the more I think about this, the more I realize that this is critical as to whether an NBA team can win games it is supposed to win or not. There are two rules. The first rule is that the team must average, at an absolute minimum, the NBA average number of assists per game, adjusted for pace. I have calculated that the Nuggets, the fastest pace team in the League, should be averaging at least 25 assists per game. They are averaging 1 ½ fewer assists per game than that, so they have failed the first requirement. But the Nuggets are close to meeting the first requirement, so they could have a decent offense if they met the second requirement. But they don't. The Nuggets are extremely inconsistent with their assists, so they violate the second requirement too often. The second requirement is that, in every game, your top two assisting guards should make at least half and no more than 2/3 of all the assists. If the assists are more spread out than this, too many players are looking for assists rather than getting in position and executing pick and rolls and so forth for scores. Consider the Nuggets' center, Marcus Camby, as an example. He is averaging about 3 assists per game, which makes Camby look generous, but it is terrible for the Nuggets. Camby is averaging only 9 points per game, down 2 from last year and down almost 4 from 2005-06. Fans have been known to complain about Camby acting like a point guard, but the problem is deeper than just Camby. All Nuggets players are subject to acting too much like a point guard from time to time, because of the failure of the team to have 2 established playmakers who make the plays almost every game. Now if you look at the seasonal averages, you would never know there is a problem, because Iverson and Carter clearly are the dominant playmakers judged by that. The problem does not occur in every game. If it did, the Nuggets would be heading for a 20-62 record or so. There are games where Carter and Iverson get 2/3 of all the assists. The problem appears mostly in games against the better teams. The better the team that the Nuggets are playing and especially the better the defense that the Nuggets are playing, the more likely the playmaking will break down and the Nuggets offense will become far less productive than usual. If Iverson decides he has to ramp up his scoring to try to beat a great team like the Spurs, but at the same time he refuses to leave the playmaking mostly to Carter, then Carter becomes of little value, and the Nuggets can win only if Iverson is able to play both guard positions well simultaneously most of the time he is out there. Since Iverson is not a machine so far as we know, he is not going to be able to do that near-impossible task on a regular basis, especially since we are talking about playing the better defenses.. So this game was a perfect example of what I have been talking about. The Nuggets finished with only 18 assists, grossly short of the needed 25. There were three Nuggets who made 4 assists each, Iverson, Anthony, and Camby. Not only did the Nuggets fail the second requirement, because the top two assisters made only 8 assists instead of 9-12, but the starting point guard, Carter, made a grand total of 1 assist in almost 20 minutes, and was not one of the top two assisters. Anthony and Camby were both wasted to some extent by making these assists instead of being able to execute plays where they score the ball. So we have identified a critical reason why the Nuggets are having so much trouble making the playoffs this year, and why they have had so much trouble under Karl winning playoff games. There is only one known solution to this, but for Karl it would be sacrilege. Karl would have to defy one of the "glorious traditions of basketball," which is that Iverson plays the 2-guard position and is "not a point guard". Atkins would come off the bench in relief of Iverson, and so could Carter. When either one of them came in, Iverson could move over to the 2-guard. The important thing would be to limit the amount of time that Iverson and either Carter or Atkins are on the court at the same time. The Nuggets are losing out when Iverson and either Carter or Atkins are playing at the same time, it's that simple. But Karl is never going to have enough courage to admit that Iverson should be declared to be the PG because, for one thing, he would have to defy one of his best friends, Larry Brown, to do that. Larry Brown has always thought that a PG should never be a major scorer, and he was desperate for heavy guard scoring in Philadelphia, so he insisted that AI play SG. In Brown's mind, it was the only possible solution to meeting the scoring objective without violating the PG rule. One big reason why the Pistons under Brown won it all in 2003-04 was that the Billups-Hamilton back court was perfect for Brown's limitations and rules. Billups was a PG who was not at all obsessed with scoring, and Hamilton was an excellent SG who had little interest in encroaching on the PG role. So those two guards made it possible for Brown's views to work very well. Brown never had a 2-guard the caliber of Hamilton in Philadelphia, which is a partial but by no means a complete excuse for Brown's failure to make any adjustments to Iverson's role as the years went by after the 76'ers loss to the Lakers in the finals. Karl would never do anything to go against his idol Brown. That would be sacrilege, so that is why the Nuggets are stuck with this problem to this day. If Karl officially realized that AI has been running the point, there would be all kinds of stories in the media about how Karl was trying to improve on what Brown did, and Karl could not tolerate or deal with that. It should be noted, in all fairness, that Brown and Karl are not the only two coaches in the world who worry about a PG being a huge scorer. But as Byron Scott is showing with his Hornets, it is definitely possible to have a successful offense where your PG is a huge scorer. If we had a coach who was not tied at the hip to Larry Brown, we would probably have A.I. as the starting PG by now. At the start of the 2007-08 season, basketball's best minds penciled in the Nuggets' starting five as Iverson/Smith/Anthony/Martin/Camby. Early this season, many of the sports sites were showing Iverson as the starting PG for the Nuggets, because they thought that was the only reasonable possibility once Atkins was not available. But the basketball experts at ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and so forth did not understand that Karl can never do anything that would in any way challenge his idol Brown. With every game the door starts to close a little more on the Nugget's playoff hopes. Now the Nuggets need to win the next 3 straight games, which are all home games, because they have been struggling on the road this year, unlike last year, and because they have fallen 2 ½ games behind the last playoff spot with only 19 games left. The Nuggets are more talented than the Mavericks, the Warriors, the Hornets, and the Rockets, but they are inferior in basketball knowledge, and they employ fewer strategies and tactics than any of those teams. It's as if the Nuggets are doing a scientific experiment to see if athletic skills and talent are enough to offset knowledge, strategies, and tactics. It's looking more and more like the answer is no, they are not enough. The Nuggets only hope now may be to want to win so badly that they employ an even greater percentage of their abilities than they would otherwise. To tap most of your raw abilities you need to get really pumped up. Maybe, as the season draws to a close, the Nuggets will rebel against going down in history as one of the all-time chump teams. Maybe they will join J.R. Smith in the quest for the ring. PROJECTIONS Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 40% Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 60% The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN's excellent team analysis system, are 51%. However, and I know this is a little confusing, the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they will not make the playoffs because only 8 teams qualify in each Conference. It seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger's system, which is saying that the Suns and the Warriors are favored in this race. The Suns' victory over the Spurs on Sunday March 9 gave them a boost over the Warriors and the Nuggets. The Hollinger odds don't take into account that, most likely, Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to good condition. It's still unknown whether Atkins can help to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 53% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs. The Lakers, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Hornets are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Mavericks are currently considered near locks to make the playoffs. However, the Rockets are no longer really total locks, due to the loss of Yao Ming for the season. But I think they are still near locks. The Suns are in trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O'Neal, but they are in less trouble after their win at home over the Spurs on March 9. PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN Lakers 58-24 Rockets 56-26 Spurs 55-27 Jazz 54-28 Hornets 53-29 Mavericks 52-30 Suns 51-31 Warriors 51-31 NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN Nuggets 48-34 Trailblazers 42-40 The Rockets have lost their best player, and one of the best players in the NBA, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. Therefore, they will probably drop substantially below their current projection, since the projections do not take injuries into account. The Suns will probably drop a little more also, because they made a bad trade when they gave up "The Matrix," Shawn Marion. At this time, however, Nuggets 1 does not believe that either the Rockets or the Suns will fail to win at least 50 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties. The Warriors are now 3 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last spot. The schedules of the two teams are roughly equal difficulty from here on out. If the Nuggets make up the three games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. Now that the Nuggets are 2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are definitely out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain more likely to make the playoffs than the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are about even with the Warriors in the race. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games. WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT Wed, Mar 12 Toronto 10:30 PM Thu, Mar 13 @ Phoenix 10:30 PM Sat, Mar 15 Memphis 10:30 PM Tue, Mar 18 @ Sacramento 10:00 PM Wed, Mar 19 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT Wed, Mar 12 Memphis 9:00 PM Fri, Mar 14 Toronto 9:00 PM Sun, Mar 16 Seattle 9:00 PM Tue, Mar 18 @ Detroit 7:30 PM Wed, Mar 19 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM So overall, Nuggets 1 agrees with the Hollinger system; as of now, we think the Nuggets will fail to make the playoffs. But it will probably be a very close call, and it still could go either way. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 13-6 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 12-7 will probably not be good enough, and 11-8 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 14-5. If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 4%. The odds that Utah will win the Northwest are 96% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them, and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch. NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the Grizzlies game on March 12. Marcus Camby: suffered a right hip contusion at San Antonio on March 10, and he is probable for the Grizzlies game on March 12. PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 29 straight games. He is out until at least the middle of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. Nene has now missed 27 straight games this season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season. SPURS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE All players on the roster were available. ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS As of March 11, 2008 The Nuggets are under a YELLOW ALERT, on account of the following problems. NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES 1. Nene illness 14 points SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS Chucky Atkins, 14 points BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING 1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured. No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points. 2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court. J.R. Smith was partially benched: 0 points. Smith was not partially benched. 3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won't play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl's beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here. The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. The rotations were reasonable. 4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson's intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, reduces the damage. At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Anthony to some extent. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. However, another problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don't know in advance who is going to be the effective point guard in the game: Iverson, Carter, or both Iverson and Carter roughly equally. And in any case, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. In any event, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending. Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 14 Points INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART 1. The Nugget's intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It's not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is. TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 42, which constitutes YELLOW ALERT. YELLOW ALERT (40-54): Minor damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under medium threat. Beating quality teams is more difficult and will be relatively unusual. About 1/2 of all would be wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is a little more difficult. About 1/4 of games that would be wins against mid-level teams will now be losses. Beating low level teams is still relatively easy. A good team has become in between a good team and a mid-level team when it is under this alert. IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the point differential will be for each 1 level difference in the alert status has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points, and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage. In this game, the Nuggets had the extra rest advantage, and the Spurs had the home court advantage, and those two offset each other. The Spurs had no injuries, and were in either GREY or GREEN alert. So they had a 1-2 level advantage over the Nuggets, which translates roughly into a 6-10 point advantage. So the Spurs had a total net advantage of 6-10 points from outside factors. Since the Nuggets lost by only 4 points, they definitely played well enough to beat the Spurs, and would most likely have won the game were it not for the factors detailed in the alert status report feature. George Karl has been doing better with the rotations lately, which has prevented the alert status from being even worse. Atkins, in his third outing since coming back, did poorly again, so his alert points were increased. The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality yet. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. If Nene in fact never returns, and Atkins continues to be a lost cause, and Karl goes back to making his usual mistakes, and if Carter starts to reassert himself at point guard, the Nuggets will range between YELLOW and ORANGE alert status for the rest of the season, and that right there may cost the Nuggets a playoff spot. And don't expect George Karl to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon. The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It's that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it. RESERVE WATCH Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Spurs 10 Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Spurs 8 Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 28 Spurs Non-Starters Points: 31 Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 13 Spurs Non-Starters Rebounds: 12 Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 5 Spurs Non-Starters Assists: 4 THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs and so Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets' only hope at the position in the playoffs, and in the stretch run to make the playoffs, for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is poor so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter has to play a lot of minutes also. J.R. Smith scored 22 points, allowing the Nuggets to hang tight with the Spurs non-starters in scoring, 28-31. In a similar way, Linas Kleiza was a good rebounder, which allowed the Nuggets' non-starters to out rebound the Spurs' non-starters 13-12. It's unusual for the Nuggets' non-starters to out assist the non-starters of the other team, but in this game they did, 5-4. I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this "statistical noise," and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible. GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10) 3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense: Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after "game," is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after "season" is that player's overall average for the entire season. NUGGETS-SPURS PLAYER RATINGS NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS Allen Iverson: Game 41.5 Season 41.4 J.R. Smith: Game 34.5 Season 16.4 Carmelo Anthony: Game 32.1 Season 39.1 Kenyon Martin: Game 22.4 Season 22.1 Marcus Camby: Game 18.5 Season 32.3 Anthony Carter: Game 14.6 Season 20.3 Eduardo Najera: Game 9.7 Season 13.3 Linas Kleiza: Game 8.0 Season 18.1 Chucky Atkins: Game 1.6 Season 5.7 Nene: Did Not Play-Illness Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision SPURS PLAYER RATINGS Tim Duncan: Game 52.9 Season 38.9 Manu Ginobili: Game 36.1 Season 34.2 Tony Parker: Game 22.8 Season 29.5 Bruce Bowen: Game 17.7 Season 11.2 Kurt Thomas: Game 16.9 Season 19.2 Matt Bonner: Game 14.5 Season 10.1 Michael Finley: Game 12.4 Season 15.4 Ime Udoka: Game 10.6 Season 10.3 Fabricio Oberto: Game 8.6 Season 13.2 Damon Stoudamire: Game 5.1 Season 11.9 NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes. NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player's defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Najera, and Diawara. OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS: J.R. Smith was more than twice as productive as his average, but where he led none of the other Nuggets followed. No other Nugget was above average at all, let alone much above average. In fact, there were only two Nuggets who made their averages against the tough Spurs defense, Iverson and Martin, who have been there, done that. Anthony was 1/5 off his average, mainly because he didn't get the ball much in the last third of this game. Carter was 1/4 off his average, mainly because he is getting confused about what he should be doing out there in the wake of Iverson's gradual taking over of running the point. Najera was about 30% off his average, mainly because he didn't get the rebounds he gets against many other teams, and because he, like Anthony, did not get the ball as much on offense as usual. Camby is in a major slump, since the first of March, and he was only 60% as productive as usual. Kleiza is also in a slump, for about 2 1/2 weeks long now, and he was less than half as productive as usual. For the Spurs, PF Tim Duncan was huge; he was about 1/3 more productive than usual, which is hard to do when you do as much as Duncan does on a regular basis. Joining him on the major plus side were SF Bowen and PF Bonner. SG Ginobili made his average as did SF Udoka, though at less than 1/3 of Ginobili's high level. C Thomas and SG Finley were both just a very little short of their averages. C Oberto was about 1/3 off his average, but he only played 8 minutes, compared to his average playing time of 20 minutes, so in real terms he played extremely well. Similarly, PG Stoudamire was a little more than 1/2 off his average productivity, but he only played 6 minutes compared to his average playing time of 20 minutes, so he actually played very well in real terms. So there was really only 1 Spur who was substantially below his average, and even he was not way below. It was PG Parker, but he was not poor enough in this game to truly endanger the Spurs winning it, and he was no where near as poor as we was in the 3 days earlier Spurs-Nuggets game in Denver. REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short. This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows. In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else. SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS 1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high 1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan 1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game 1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance 1.05 1.20 Star Performance 0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game 0.80 0.90 Very Good Game 0.70 0.80 Good Game 0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game 0.50 0.60 Poor Game 0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game 0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster Less 0.25 Total Disaster NUGGETS-SPURS REAL PLAYER RATINGS All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted. 1. Tim Duncan, SA 1.356 2. J.R. Smith, Den 1.190 3. Manu Ginobili, SA 1.128 4. Fabricio Oberto, SA 1.075…Oberto played only 8 minutes. 5. Matt Bonner, SA 0.967 6. Allen Iverson, Den 0.965 7. Damon Stoudamire, SA 0.850…Stoudamire played only 6 minutes. 8. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.803 9. Anthony Carter, Den 0.768 10. Ime Udoka, SA 0.757 11. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.723 12. Kurt Thomas, SA 0.704 13. Michael Finley, SA 0.653 14. Marcus Camby, Den 0.638 15. Tony Parker, SA 0.585 16. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.533 17. Bruce Bowen, SA 0.432 18. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.422 19. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.133 OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS The best player on the court was Tim Duncan of the Spurs, and he was a star-plus. There were 3 stars: J.R. Smith for the Nuggets, and Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto for the Nuggets. But Oberto played for only 8 minutes. Not counting Oberto, the Spurs had 1 star-plus and one star, while the Nuggets had just one star. Iverson for the Nuggets and Bonner for the Spurs were outstanding. Anthony for the Nuggets and Stoudamire in limited minutes for the Spurs were very good. Udoka and Thomas for the Spurs and Carter and Martin for the Nuggets were plain good. Camby for the Nuggets and Finley for the Spurs were only mediocre, and when Camby is only mediocre the Nuggets are in deep trouble Kleiza for the Nuggets and Parker for the Spurs were poor. Bowen for the Spurs and Najera for the Nuggets were very poor, not counting their made you miss type shot defending. Atkins for the Nuggets was a total disaster in his third game back from his long injury out. He was also a disaster in his first game back, but played much better in his second game, which was the Jazz game. NUGGET'S PLUS—MINUS This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown. Linas Kleiza: +10 Chucky Atkins: +9 Eduardo Najera: +0 J.R. Smith: -2 Anthony Carter: -2 Carmelo Anthony: -7 Marcus Camby: -8 Kenyon Martin: -10 Allen Iverson: -10 OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS If anyone thinks that the Nugget's non-starters are useless, consider these results. The 4 non-starters finished ahead of the 5 starters, except that Carter was tied with Smith. Although there is no performance measure for made you miss type defending yet, the plus-minus will often give you some clues as to who defended very well. This is a good example of that. Kleiza was extremely quiet offensively, but he had a strong plus-minus, which suggests but does not prove that he was a very good defender in this game. In the case of Najera, who is usually a good defender in games, his plus-minus is usually better than his real player rating would suggest. Smith was huge in this game, but even he couldn't quite get into positive territory against the grind them out and shut them down Spurs. All of the Nuggets' starters except for Carter were beaten decisively by the Spurs. NUGGETS MADE WHAT? All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating. Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets' Total 16, Team 1, Anthony 2, Atkins 0, Camby 2, Carter 2, Iverson 2, Kleiza 0, Martin 1, Najera 2, Smith 4 Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets' Total 22, Anthony 3, Atkins 1, Camby 2, Carter 1, Iverson 2, Kleiza 1, Martin 5, Najera 3, Smith 4 Chucky Atkins played 12 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3's for 0 points, and he made 1 assist and 1 steal. Eduardo Najera played 23 minutes and was 1/3, 0/2 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 4 points, and he made 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal. Linas Kleiza played 15 minutes and was 1/4 for 2 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. Marcus Camby played 29 minutes and was 1/5 and 1/2 from the line for 3 points, and he made 14 rebounds and 4 assists. Kenyon Martin played 31 minutes and was 7/15 and 2/5 from the line for 16 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block. Anthony Carter played 19 minutes and was 4/7 and 2/2 on 3's for 10 points, and he made 2 rebounds and 1 assist. Carmelo Anthony played most of the game, 40 minutes, and was 8/15, 0/1 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 18 points, and he made 7 rebounds and 4 assists. Allen Iverson played most of the game, 43 minutes, and was 9/22, 3/6 on 3's, and 7/7 from the line for 28 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block. J.R. Smith played 29 minutes and was 9/13, 1/4 on 3's, and 3/5 from the line for 22 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block. As always, more reports and other goodies are at: http://www.nuggets1.blogspot.com