Champions League: Man City vs. Real Madrid odds, predictions, picks for Wednesday 4/17

Man City vs. Real Madrid Odds

Wednesday, April 17, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Man City

Manchester City really weren’t that great offensively. They only took 12 shots with only four of them coming inside the penalty area. More than anything, Madrid completely neutralized Erling Haaland, as he only had 18 touches (only four in the penalty area) and just one shot for the match.

Something bad is happening with Manchester City defensively and Pep doesn’t seem to want to make any changes, but they are incredibly vulnerable in transition. Because City build up in a very narrow shape and are pushing Rodri and whoever inverts alongside him farther up the pitch to try and overload the opposing backline, it often leaves them in a 3 v 3 situation and their defenders simply are struggling to stop the opposing attack.

Getting beat in transition time and time again also comes down to the fact that City are not as effective with their counter-pressing as they were last year. Manchester City are ninth in PPDA, 11th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed, and are ninth in long ball completion percentage allowed. If you are going to get yourself into 3 v 3 situations in transition, doing it against Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior, and Bellingham is an absolute nightmare, especially with how good of dribblers and passers Real Madrid have. If Manchester City’s counter-press continues to be average, Real Madrid are going to have moments in transition.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid came out in the first half with a little bit of a different approach than we are used to seeing from them. They are not a very good pressing teams and have been much better under Ancelotti by playing more passive out of possession, but they decided to press City right out of the gates and actually forced a lot of mistakes.

Valverde and Camvinga did a masterful job tracking any of City's midfielders who were dropping deep in build up to not allow them to receive the ball easily in the half space, which made it really difficult for Manchester City to control the middle of the pitch. They reverted back to a more passive approach in the second half, mainly because they had a two goal advantage, and even that was successful because all of City's goals were screamers from outside the box.

The Real Madrid defense has vastly improved this season as opposed to previous years because they have better ball stopping midfielders as opposed to playing Kroos and Modric and Rudiger has established himself into one of the better defensive center backs in world football and completely shut down Erling Haaland in the first leg. Since the beginning of January, Real Madrid are only allowing 0.75 npxG per 90 minutes, which shows how much they've improved out of possession and how versatile they can be.

Even though Real Madrid hold a lot of possession in Spain, they are by nature one of the best transition teams in the world. What they were trying to do with their aggressive approach in the first half is trying to win the ball higher up the pitch than normal to release Vinicuis Jr. and Rodrygo with runs off the opponent's back line. With the scoreline being even on aggregate, Real Madrid can come to the Eithad with either approach out of possession and be successful again.

Man City vs Real Madrid

Prediction

The market seems to think that this is going to be a repeat of last season when Manchester City hammered Real Madrid in the second leg. That was a Manchester City team that was elite out of possession and did a way better job of controlling matches than this years version.

Real Madrid are one of the most talented teams in the world and have a front three that not only gave Manchester City a lot of problems in the first leg, but can do the exact same thing here at the Etihad exposing their flaw of defending in transition. Kevin De Bryune is going to be back, but Manchester City are most likely going to be without Kyle Walker and John Stones, who are two incredibly crucial players on their back line.

I think the to advance line is way too high on Manchester City. I only have City projected at -203 to advance, so I like the value on Real Madrid to advance at +260.

Pick: Real Madrid to Advance (+250 via FanDuel)