There are more than a few eerie coincidences in this scenario.

Mike D'Antoni, in his first full year with a sub-30 win team, inherits a roster full of swingmen.

There were 7 players on that Suns team between 6'6" and 6'9' just like the current Knicks roster.

The team will most likely start a point guard whose old team chose not to resign him because they felt they had a better chance to win without him, having a younger, flashier point ( Jason Terry, meet Derrick Rose).

Quentin Richardson.

Stephon Marbury.

The starting team is what matters on a D'Antoni team, so let's take a look-see. We will probably get a backcourt of Chris Duhon and Jamal Crawford. Duhon playing like Steve Nash is a stretch, I know, but let's say that he has a great season. Just for purposes of comparison. Jamal Crawford can put up similar numbers as Joe Johnson, but he has to work on his 3-pointer. If he's smart, he started working on it the moment he heard D'Antoni was coming to the Knicks.

At small forward we have ... Quentin Richardson! Q-Rich was productive under D'Antoni, and he's still a 35% 3-pt shooter. He was banged up last season, but there's no indication he won't start the season fully healthy.

Now the dilemma: Can Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry match Amare Stoudamire? The obvious answer is of course not. but what if? Actually, Zach's offensive numbers last year weren't far off Marion's from 04-05.

Z-Bo (07-08): 17.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg

Marion (04-05): 19.4 ppg, 11.3 rpg

But defensively, it's night and day. Marion could play better defense drunk than Randolph could on 'roids. Eddy Curry? He won't get Amare's 26 points per game, and even his 8.9 rebounds per game is stretching it. Defensively, Amare and Shawn combined for 3.1 blocks per game. Nobody on the Knicks last year averaged more than one per game.

So what needs to happen?

1. Cut Stephon Marbury. Getting rid of Marbury worked with the Suns, didn't it? Since Starbury switched teams the Knicks haven't made the playoffs, and the Suns haven't missed it. Seriously though, just pay him off and get rid of him. You paid off everybody else, and if you're saying it's time to get serious, this has to be your first move.

2. Hit the gym and work on the three-pointer. This one should be self-explanatory.

3. Find a way to resolve the center position. This is obviously easier said than done. Maybe by tracking down the trade-exception you can steal an unhappy big man off a losing team. Andrew Bogut, Emeka Okafor and Weird Al Jefferson come to mind. Actually, Emeka's new mondo contract and Charlotte's love of swingmen, maybe that could be a good fit.

4. Get Steve Nash a Chris Duhon costume, and then fake his death.

5. Trade your entire bench for Marcus Camby and Al Thornton. Seriously, I think this could work. Al Thornton may be one or two years away from being a 20 and 10 guy, and Marcus is still the best defensive center as long as KG is sticking with the I'm-a-power-forward shtick. You then have Duhon, Crawford, Q-Rich, Thornton and Camby. Sign a couple of scrubs, and you make the playoffs for sure in the East.

6. Capture a leprechaun and force it to take you to its pot of gold. Then use the gold to bribe a magician into hypnotizing a genie. While hypnotized, get him to grant you unlimited wishes. And then start wishing, baby, cause it'll never happen!

I mean, what were the odds that he was going to outdo last season? This reminds me of Joe Montana in 1990 season. An injury to him was the only thing that kept that team from winning yet another Super Bowl, and by the time he returned to the league his savvy didn't compensate for his decreased agility. He was still spectacular, but no longer the consensus best in the league.

Now reconstructive surgery has advanced light years since then, but the Patriots have made it impossible to properly analyze his health over the last season or so. was he grinning and bearing it through major pain? Did he do greater harm to his leg by playing on it? Would he have avoided Pollard's cheap shot if his other foot had been healthy?

And it was a cheap shot. That might go down as one of the cheapest shots in history. It definitely surpasses Kimo von Oelhoffen going low on Carson Palmer, and is right up there with Warren Sapp ruining Jerry Rice's season with a blatant personal foul face mask that should've gotten him ejected. Almost as bad as Brandon Marshall's entertainment center attacking him without provocation.

Who thought Tom Brady's invulnerability shield would crack before Peyton Manning's? Not I. But don't worry, Chris Simms is here to save the day! Seriously, why don't they try out Culpepper?

He had more yards (226 to 166), more touchdowns (2 to 0), more first downs (11 to 8). Look at his averages: per rush (10.0 to 2.4), per touch (9.83 to 3.7).

Kinda makes Stephen Jackson's fantasy campaigning sound silly, huh?

First, with the game that is freshest in my mind:

Carolina vs. San Diego: Did that really happen? I was just thinking up a snarky comment about the SD fans holding up oversized cutout numbers saying "95" (aw, how cute! they think this is their year to get blown out in the Super Bowl !) when Delhomme rifled a pass to some guy with Rosario on the back of his jersey AS TIME EXPIRED. Mind you, San Diego had just executed the calm, professional fourth-quarter comeback that their recently under-performing offense had become known for last season. Rather than stack points on the board, they prefer to aim for late-game theatrics. But facing a Carolina offense missing their only dangerous receiver and grossly mismanaging the little time they had left, they couldn't get off the field! See my later section on teams we'll have to wait until next week to pass judgment upon.

Then to the big news.

TOM BRADY LEAVES GAME IN SECOND QUARTER WITH GRISLY KNEE INJURY!

As far as I can tell, it's the knee on one leg and the foot on the other, right? That's not good. There are question marks on the Patriots this year. Fumbles by key receivers? An end zone defensive stand was needed just to beat the Chiefs, who would've sent it to overtime if Devard Darling can outrun the Pats secondary. But Brady is not New England's 2008 version of Drew Bledsoe, and Cassel sure as hell ain't this year's Brady.

San Francisco vs. Arizona: Don't wanna talk about it. We (49ers) still can't stop the run in the second half. In fact, they can't do anything right in the second half. I place blame on the coaches.

Jacksonville vs. Tennessee: If Vince Young can learn how to be a productive quarterback, there's no telling how good Tennessee can be. David Garrard had 5 turnovers all of last year; Haynesworth and Co. took it from him thrice, two Cortland Finnegan INT"s and a forced fumble. And while we're talking about Garrard, why is he throwing the ball 35 times when he has Mojo and Taylor in the backfield? Fourteen rushing attempts by the two of them for 31yards. Makes you wonder how badly the Jags O-line is banged up. Can VY recover from his injury? He seemed to leave the game every other week last season, only to return next week.

Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans: Looks like TB won't be sneaking by people this year. Looks like another year where nobody in the NFC South can separate from the rest of the back. Sometimes that means all of the teams are contenders, and sometimes they're dogs. Carolina comes out of Week 1 looking like the best in the pack so far.

Baltimore vs. Cincinnati: The Ravens pass the AFC cellar-dweller torch to the Bengals. No offensive touchdowns, Carson Palmer outplayed by Joe Flacco. Cincy was a Ravens illegal block on a kick return for a touchdown and a Bengals fumble return for a touchdown away from this being a 24-3 blowout. Ouch.

Now, there were several games where I couldn't devote the time to watch long enough to figure out: was the winning team that good, or the losing team that bad? The close games like this:

Detroit vs. Atlanta: Hands down the surprise of the day. Not that Detroit was supposed to be that good, but from what I could see, Michael Turner just proved the Lions attempt at revamping their defense an utter failure. It's good to see him get a chance to shine, and he rewarded fantasy owners more than anyone else this week. IF he can stay healthy, pencil him in for 1,400 yards rushing this season. Whether that will get the team anywhere remains to be seen. Matt Ryan completed two passes for over 40 yar4ds. When was the last time a rookie did that in his first start? He'll be tested next week against Tampa, while Detroit sees if they can avoid 0-2 vs. Green Bay.

New York Jets vs. Miami: Did I really see Miami almost pull off the upset in this one? The Jets offensive line is supposed to be much improved, but sitting on a 13-point lead towards the end of the third quarter, they managed 13 rushing yards and no first downs. I knew that Jonathan Vilma leaving would hurt their defense more than Calvin Pace arriving would help it, but Pennington found open Dolphins running through the Jets secondary all day. The Jets head to New England with a chance to put take advantage of a stunned Patriots team, while Miami heads to Arizona hoping to build some legitimate momentum for this season.

Seattle vs. Buffalo: I picked Buffalo in my office pool and fretted over it quite a bit, especially when I heard that Angelo Crowell would miss the game. I thought they would win, but by this much? Marcus Stroud to the Bills might be an early pick for biggest defensive free agent acquisition this offseason, but like I said, it's early. Is there something about the way Matt Hasselbeck throws the ball that makes it so hard to catch? His receivers can't seem to hold on to anything. The Jaguars are on tap to check the rise of the Bills, while the 49ers will perform a similar function checking the descent of the Seahags.

Dallas vs. Cleveland: Is Dallas this good? Is Cleveland this bad? Logic tells you one of the two would be true, but I think we'll see neither is. Dallas replaced one Jones with another and didn't miss a step, and their defense, when healthy, now has that third corner they needed the last couple of years in the playoffs. But last year it wasn't their record in September (4-0) that defined them as a team, but their record in December and January (2-3). Call me when it starts snowing. The Browns managed only 10 points and went 4-and-out on 4 of 7 of their possessions. But every indication is that Cleveland will have a healthy receiving corps soon, which will help restore them to last year's levels. Why am I confident? Because in the midst of a blowout, the offensive line didn't give up a single sack. That bodes well, and they'll need everything to click if they want to beat Pittsburgh next week. As for Dallas, Philly looks nasty right now - definitely not a team I'd want to play.

Pittsburgh vs. Houston: IF Pittsburgh can repeat this performance against Cleveland, then I'm a believer. Houston travels to Baltimore, where they need a win to restore faith to a team that could've sworn this was going to be their year.

Philadelphia vs. St.Louis: Yes, Philly is this good. Yes, St. Louis is that bad. that's all you need to know.

Ahhhhhhhhh. That early renewal payment for NFL Sunday Ticket finally pays off on Sunday, as the most anticipated day of the year returns. After a short hiatus, I will be back, providing gameday analysis, top 10's and, when I get my bearings on the season, predictions! I'll list mine anyways, because I have a new office pool to dominate.

Not every team needs to come out of the gate at full speed, but the following ten players, coaches and units need to turn in a strong performance if they want to win. Or just keep their jobs.

I always hear that without Steve Nash Phoenix would fall apart. That's pathetic. They have a loaded roster, talent at all the positions. The same goes for Dallas.

So why do the two players with the best ensemble casts, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzski, always frontrun the MVP talk?

Kobe Bryant has Lamar Odom, and that is the only other player on his team that can really create his own shot.

I mean, has anybody seen this guy lately? Talk about peaking at the right time.

That's exactly what the Lakers used to do when they were winning championships. Of course, back then Kobe and Shaq always got dropped down in the MVP discussion because of the fact that each had each other to relieve pressure. Who is relieving pressure for Kobe Bryant?

Maybe if he had a Josh Howard, Jason Terry or a Jerry Stackhouse, he could relax on offense and save his energy for clutch fourth quarters.

Or if he had a Shawn Marion- Raja Bell-Leandro Barbosa- Boris Diaw-James Jones three point shooting threat, he could dribble anywhere on the court and not worry about being doubled immediately.

I mean, have you seen him? He's going through double teams like MJ. That's it. I've never seen somebody cut so nice, and neither have you.

No, you haven't. Stop trying to think of someone.

Kobe For MVP. All I'm saying.

So who are the leading candidates for defensive MVP?

Marcus Camby: 11.4 RPG (9.2 def.), 3.2 BPG, 1.2 SPG

Emeka Okafor: 11.7 RPG (7.7 def.), 2.8 BPG, 0.9 SPG

Josh Smith: 8.4 RPG (6.2 def.), 2.9 BPG, 1.4 SPG

Jermaine O'Neal: 10.0 RPG (7.6 def.), 2.7 BPG, 0.8 SPG

Ben Wallace: 10.6 RPG (6.6 def.), 2.1 BPG, 1.5 SPG

Shawn Marion: 10.1 RPG (8.0 def.), 1.5 BPG, 2.0 SPG

Dwayne Wade: 4.8 RPG (3.8 def.), 1.3 BPG, 2.1 SPG

Kevin Garnett: 12.8 RPG (10.3 def.), 1.7 BPG, 1.2 SPG

Tough. I would love a team with Wade and Kobe Bryant (the most underrated defensive player of our generation) at guard, Camby at center, Shawn Marion and Kevin Garnett at forwards. Throw in Ben Wallace and Emeka Okafor backing up Camby, Josh Smith, Jermaine O'Neal and Caron Butler (almost made the list) off the bench as forwards, and Ron Artest (also-ran) and Baron Davis as backup guards. Make Alonzo Mourning their player/coach.

I'm gonna say that it boils down to Camby, Wallace and Marion. Wallace's team has the lowest opponents FG% for any of the three's teams, but I want to give it to Camby. He's finally put together a full season and show that he's not just a overrated ex-Knick who cashed in on a sweet deal for more than he was worth.

I know all of you watch PTI. They posited this question, and I went to go look it up. Of the 27 quarterbacks in this league who have played at least 8 seasons, only eight of them have played in Super Bowls.

Three are still starting: Steve McNair, Brett Favre, Matt Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson.

Three are now backups: Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Drew Bledsoe, Two of them are inured and out for the season: Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme.

Only four of these quarterbacks won the Super Bowl they playe in: Favre, Johnson, Warner McNair and Dilfer.

So it looks like Peyton should, if he was average, get a 33% chance of playing in one. He's exceptional, so I'll add a little. The game was "Oddsmakers", after all.

43%. That's it. What do you think?

Besides that, got to squeeze in a quickie while studying for finals. First, the abbreviated top 10.

1. San Diego Chargers (1)

2. Cincinnati Bengals (5)

3. Baltimore Ravens (3)

4. Chicago Bears (6)

5. Tennessee Titans (unranked)

6. Indianapolis Colts (2)

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (unranked)

8. New England Patriots (4)

9. New Orleans Saints (9)

10. Denver Broncos (8)

I will say this: Vince Young is THE SHOW right now. You should get NFL Sunday Ticket if you don't get him locally. He's the reincarnation of Randall Cunningham.

Now, the picks for the games between two teams with playoff chances. I'm ruling out the 6-7 AFC teams, because its gonna take ten wins to get in in that conference. Similarly out are the 5-8 teams in the NFC, because virtually all of them lose a tiebreaker to the 7-6 teams. That means they won't get in, even at 8-8. So we have five games.

1. Dallas at Atlanta. The "Boys will come into this game hungry, and Atlanta hasn't won more than two games in a row all season. This would be their third. But they also won two in a row and are returning home. The health of their running backs will factor, but get this: Parcells has never coached against Vick. The defense might be a little outmatched, and if their receivers can catch balls they should win this game at home. Plus, I decided to give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt against the Saints and they burned me! Fuck 'em, I say. Falcons 31, Cowboys 28.

2. New York Jets at Minnesota. There's no indication that Minnesota will be able to beat the Jets. The difference in quality between conferences is evident at this point. Minnesota hasn't beaten a quality opponent since the Seahawks, who they beat by taking out Hasselbeck. Before that, a Carolina team without Steve Smith. Jets 35, Vikings 18.

3. Philadelphia at New York Giants. If Strahan was playing I would feel much more comfortable about this. If Eli Manning wasn't 3-3 at home, I'd make this pick with more ease. As well as the Eagles are playing, I don't think that they get this one. The Giants are just a better team at this point. Giants 24, Eagles 21.

4. Kansas City at San Diego. Are you kidding me? Is anybody picking the Chiefs. The myriad of reasons need not be explicated here. Chargers 38, Chiefs 20.

5. Cincinnati at Indianapolis. This one won't be a blowout like some may anticipate. Indy is facing criticism that their offense is suffering, and you have to assume that Peyton can amass a sense of pride in these guys. Should be one hell of a show. Stokeley was dropping all the passes anyway, but having Proehl as a third receiver stopped scaring defenses in oh, I don't know, maybe 2002. Cincy can gash them with the run, and kill them on the deep ball. Bengals 42, Colts 38.

So what does this say about the playoff pictures?

AFC divisional: San Diego stays in first, and should keep doing so. Baltimore has the tiebreaker against them, is on their ass with an easier schedule. These two get the byes. Despite struggling, New England and Indy are still locks for their division.

AFC Wild Card: Cincy goes to Indy and then to Denver, but both of those teams are more scared of the Bengals than the Bengals are of them. I still have them taking one of the spots with either an 11-5 or 10-6 record. Jacksonville and Kansas City will play each other the last week of the season, with the Jags probably at 9-5 and the Chiefs 8-7. The Jets will regroup, but now the best they can hope for is 10-6. Denver might steal one against Cincy at home, and that would create a cockblock at 10-6. But I'm not buying Denver getting three in a row, even if Arizona and San Fran are two of the three. So I'm gonna stay with Cincy to win that one. Can I justify to myself and others my continued support for the New York Jets? Nope. Jacksonville beat them 41-0, so there's the tiebreaker. The playoff teams will thus be the two in the lead right now.

NFC Divisional: Chicago has home field. All New Orleans needs is two out of three to secure a bye, and I say they get that. Seattle has the division, but I'm not so sure about Dallas. The Giants can easily catch them and has the better division record. But both teams have one easy win, a game against Philly, and then the other one is different. Dallas has Atlanta, Giants have New Orleans. I say Dallas keeps the division.

NFC Wild Card: My picks (Falcons and Giants) are still in the lead, and I have both of them winning this week. I have the Giants getting two of three and finishing 9-7. Philly has a brutal schedule, I can't give them victories over New York or even really Dallas. So they're out, great story as Jeff Garcia is. Atlanta might still struggle with them at Philly in the last game, and if they lose to Carolina they'll be 8-7 going into it. But Carolina won't beat Pittsburgh this week, so if they beat Atlanta they'll still be 7-8 going into New Orleans. Carolina's chances are slim to none. Minnesota? They won't beat the Jets, the best they'll get to is 8-8. That means that if Atlanta loses their last two games, they'll slide to 8-8 and lose the tiebreaker to the Vikings based on conference record. But that won't happen. I'm keeping my teams.

If you want to watch Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Anderson fight to a draw in a sloppily defended touchdownfest, go right ahead. But you'd be missing valuable information abou the six games that really matter.

Ok so I went 3-5, getting me to 17-22. I won't make it to .500 this week, so the streak continues. But its getting late in the season, and homefield advantage makes tough choices easier. Lesgo!

1. Baltimore at Kansas City. The Chiefs have one of the toughest stadiums to play in, this we all know. But they looked terrible last week, and Baltimore has the best defense in the league right now. Jared Allen and Jonathan Ogden will be the big matchup, but given each's respective talents, the real deal will be the other side of the line. DE Tamba Hali vs. T Tony Pashos will determine whether Steve McNair will get the protection he needs. I think this will be a low-scoring affair, and that favors the road team. Ravens 17, Chiefs 14.

2. Indianapolis at Jacksonville. The Jags haven't beaten the Colts in their own house since 2003. Their secondary will have its usual problems with the Indy receiver corps, but this game is always close. Jacksonville will be able to run the ball effectively, which will keep them in the game. But you gotta believe that Indy wants to stay indoors in January, and all of a sudden they don't automatically have home field. Colts 23, Jacksonville 20.

3. New York Giants at Carolina. Did you see the Tuna's face after that field goal won them the game? That was the most surprised/relieved I've ever seen the Tuna at the end of the game, and we're talking about the beneficiary of "Wide Right" here. Eli had a good game, and it was one big play that gave them field goal range, otherwise we've got overtime with momentum in the Giants' favor. I have to believe that Michael Strahan will play in this one. This one will be close, and the Panthers have been losing the close ones. Giants 17, Panthers 14.

4. Denver at San Diego. This may just be a blowout. Knowing Marty, that means shutdown second half, LT getting 200 yards. I don't see Denver getting anything going in this game. Merriman and Phillips will create havoc. Chargers 34, Broncos 17.

5. New Orleans at Dallas. I've gotten the Cowboys wrong the last two weeks, so I'm gonna give them this one at home. New O might get Colston back, so this could turn into a shootout. But Hollis Thomas will be missed as Dallas runs all over the Saints. Cowboys 27, Saints 23.

6. Chicago at St. Louis. Don't worry, this is the last time a Rams game will matter to both teams. Carolina showed that their high powered offense can be stopped, and Chicago is even better. Sans Tommie Harris, they'll still get to Bulger. He has bruised ribs. We'll probably see Frerotte. P.S. doesn't it seem like only yesterday that Frerotte and Heath Shuler were competing for the "Skins job? Now the latter is a congressman, and Frerotte is still backing up younger, better quarterbacks. Can't decide who I feel worse for. Bears 23, Rams 10.

So here's how it looks for the wild card in the NFC:

-The group of teams at 6-6 all play three teams with legit playoff chances. Each team will have two games against teams in direct competition in this very group. None of these teams look very good right now.

-The group of teams at 5-7 can't afford more than one more loss. Minnesota has a far easier path to the playoffs, not facing a single division leader and only one good team (NYJ). San Fran will have to play at Seattle and beat Denver in a game that will most likely mean something to the Broncos after Sunday's loss.St. Louis faces Chicago, and then Minny at the end of the season in Minneapolis. If Minnesota can win that game they will go 8-8.

-So how will the 6-6 teams do? I think the Giants will get healthier (they can't get any worse) and take out Carolina and Philly in the next two weeks. With a probable loss to New Orleans and a win over Washington, they get to 9-7. So that puts Carolina with one loss, a win over Pittsburgh and then two road games against Atlanta and New Orleans. They'll lose the first one and then probably tank the second one, either way they'll be 8-8 at best.

-I think Atlanta is a good bet for the rest of the way. They could easily pop Tony Romo's bubble, and build a head of steam going into Philly for the last game. Doubtful they'll go 10-6, probably 9-7. Philly losing to the Giants and Falcons puts them 8-8 if they can beat the Cowboys.

My NFC Wild Card Picks: New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons

And here's how it looks in the AFC:

-There's a five-way tie at 7-5. Of these teams, as I have been saying all season, the Jets have the easiest schedule. They don't play a team with a winning record, while Cincy and Denver face two each, Kansas City and Jacksonville three each. They don't play any division leaders, unlike Kansas City and Jacksonville, who each must face two division leaders in the next four weeks. So New York should slide in at 11-5, 10-6 at the worst. The best team they play is Minnesota!

-So the race for the last spot splits into two groups with different chances. The first is Denver and Cincy. As mentioned, they play less division leaders and less winning teams than Kansas City and Jacksonville. Denver and Cincy face each other in three weeks, and going into it both of them will probably be 8-6 (although Cincy could knock off Indy with a strong effort like that which has shown up the last two weeks, the game is in Indy). I like Cincy in the game, and I think taking care of Pittsburgh will put them at 10-6, meaning a streaking Tennessee Titans will fall short even if the sweep the rest of the season. Denver will come in at 9-7, too short for the playoffs.

-So how about the chances of the second group, Kansas City and Jacksonville? Slim, that's for sure. KC plays Baltimore and San Diego the next two weeks, and a win over Oakland would probably boost them to 8-7 going into their final match against the Jags. Jacksonville must play Indy, Tennessee and New England before even thinking about Kansas City. The way they're playing they won't win a single game, but for the sake of argument I'll give them one. That makes them 8-7 as well. They will enter the last game knowing that they must win and Cincy must lose the have a chance, perhaps not even that because Cincy definitely has the tie breaker over KC and almost assuredly does over the Jaguars. The winner of that game won't make it.

My AFC Wild Card Picks: New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals.

Stay tuned later in the week for this week's picks! Six games, two of them head to head clashes! Oh boy!

That is a direct quote from Sly Stallone himself, talking to Tony Kornheiser. How did Rocky know about Pardon The Interruption, the pinnacle of sports talk television? My guess is his agent warned him that there was this show that had mocked the prospects of "Rocky Balboa," this surefire atrocity he's peddling right now. But anyways, I got through Sunday's regular games 3-3 and saw Denver and Carolina as solid bets to make me 5-3. Whoops!

-Denver didn't look very good with Jay Cutler, but I would be more worried about Al Wilson's health than the QB problem. They look shaky for a playoff run, and everyone is speculating that Shanahan is giving the season away. Maybe he as good reason to.

-Dallas pulled out a victory in a sloppy game featuring a weak Dallas offense smashing a paper-thin Giants defense. I'm STILL not buying the Cowboys. And the Giants ain't getting to the divisional round of the playoffs, that's for damn sure.

-Jacksonville eeked out a win, but see below for reasons why they as well are finished.

-Minnesota couldn't beat Chicago with five turnovers given to them. Why? Because Brad Johnson threw FOUR picks in the third quarter. Chicago doesn't play another team with a winning record, so they should cruise.

-Kansas City couldn't play enough defense to stop Cleveland from scoring two touchdowns in the fourth. Derek Anderson (who?) fucked them up. See below reasons why they're fucked for the playoffs now.

- Vince Young is the most exciting player in the league to watch right now. He's taking teams apart. I wouldn't want to play the Titans right now, and Jacksonville and New England better watch out because these guys roll through like a freight train. Belicheck will have a fun time trying to scheme this type of pure athlete.

-Atlanta won a game they should've, but they're future is sketchy. Again, see below.

-Fucking Niners. I'm not going to bother with reasons why they will hopefully sac it up enough to beat the Packers. Reasons below why they're probably fucked as well.

Top 10! I'm eschewing the reasons for this week's selection in order to tell you "All You Need To Know About the Playoff Scenarios!"

1. San Diego Chargers (2)

2. Indianapolis Colts (1)

3. Baltimore Ravens (3)

4. New England Patriots (4)

5. Cincinnati Bengals (7)

6. Chicago Bears (5)

7. Dallas Cowboys (8)

8. Denver Broncos (6)

9. New Orleans Saints (unranked)

10. New York Jets (10).

So here are the top teams in the NFL by record, with their respective TE's:

Indianapolis Colts, 10-1: Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht

Baltimore Ravens, 9-2: Todd Heap

San Diego Chargers, 9-2: Antonio Gates

Chicago Bears, 9-2: Desmond Clark

New England Patriots, 8-3: Ben Watson and Daniel Graham

Kansas City, 7-4: Tony Gonzalez

Notice anything? All of these teams have an outstanding receiving tight end. Heap, Gates, Gonzalez and Watson all have over 45 catches and at least three touchdowns. Heap has six scores, Desmond Clark 4. New England's TE combo has accounted for 56 catches and 5 scores, Indy's twosome 53 and 4.

So let's see who's gonna win this weekend ...

1. Baltimore at Cincinnati. This will be a tough game. Last week I conned out on the Ravens by saying that the Steelers would want it more. Nobody wants it more than Ray Lewis. I doubt that the Bengals will be able to beat Baltimore in any situation, three wide or otherwise. Cincy gives up a healthy allowance of rushing yards each week, so Baltimore can run up an early lead and grind the game out. Ravens 24, Bengals 13.

2. Minnesota at Chicago. Chicago could sure use a boost after that long road trip. Will they have the energy left to pummel the Vikings as they should? Without Tony Richardson there will be no running game for either team, and this one will grind itself out in field goals. Bears 19, Vikings 12.

3. San Diego at Buffalo. The Chargers sleep their way through most of the game on offense, content they can come back when it matters. Shawne Merriman comes back, so I wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo gets shut out. In fact, that's what I'm calling. Chargers 24, Bills 0.

4. Jacksonville at Miami. The Jags can't afford another loss, and couldn't have picked a worse team to play in this situation. The Dolphins have won four straight and will continue as they stifle Jacksonville's offense thoroughly. Dolphins 20, Jaguars 13.

5. Dallas at New York Giants. It doesn't look like the Giants have much of a chance, but this team often gets resilient with its back against the wall. Their defense will show up, hopefully, because their offense will be lucky to put up 20 the way they've been playing. Cowboys 27, Giants 17.

6. Seattle at Denver. I have a hard time believing that Shanahan would put in Cutler unless he saw immediate benefits. The kid's probably a game manager, and will take less risks. This game should be no problem for the home team. Broncos 31, Seahawks 17.

7. Carolina at Philadelphia. The way the Panthers are playing there is no such thing as an easy game. That being said, I'm pretty sure Phily will only show up for the first quarter or so. This will be their season, and as we all know their season has been over since McNabb went down. Can Carolina get things clicking? The answer is no. Panthers 15, Eagles 10.

And the moment you've all been waiting for:

THREE REASONS WHY I'M GOING AGAINST CONVENTIONAL WISDOM AND PICKING THE NINERS FOR THE UPSET OVER THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:

1. No home dome. The Saints have a worse record at home (3-2) than they do on the road (4-2). The crowd won't be able to intimidate the Niners the way Rams fans did. This doesn't speak well for the coming game at Seattle, but it should help ease the home-field advantage this week.

2. Frank Gore. This guy is always a reason why they win. New Orleans is another gift for the Niners rushing offense, a team in the bottom five in rush defense. Please, for the love of God, go for it on fourth this week! We were so close!

3. Turnovers. The Saints are -9 on the year. That ball always takes a kinder bounce indoors, and the Niners can easily swoop on some turnovers and convert them into points.

So here's my pick: Niners 30, Saints 28.

So check this out: Six quarterbacks threw interceptions in the fourth quarter of last weeks game: Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Brett Favre, Rex Grossman, Matt Leinart and Jake Delhomme. All of them ended up losing the game. So which quarterbacks can you count on in the fourth quarter?

I checked the stats, and so far this season there have been four groups of QB's: Winners, managers, even bets and losers. The QB's considered are from teams that have a chance of making the playoffs. With the season on the line, who's gonna win you the football game? Who can at least, for the love of God, not lose it for you?

The fourth quarter TD-INT ratio and number of games are included.

Winners:

Philip Rivers, SD: 6-0 in 11

Damon Huard, KC: 3-0 in 9 (8 starts)

Marc Bulger, STL: 5-1 in 11

Carson Palmer, CIN: 7-2 in 11

Drew Brees, NO: 6-2 in 11

Tom Brady, NE: 7-4 in 11

J. P. Losman, BUF: 4-0 in 11

These guys not only have impressive TD numbers, they also keep the interceptions to a minimum. Rivers and Huard haven't given up a interception in the fourth quarter in a combined 20 games. While Brady does have 4 fourth quarter picks, which puts him up there with QB's from lower categories, he still has almost twice as many TD's as interceptions. And how about Losman? Surprising, but the fans in Buffalo have to be pleased.

Managers:

Joey Harrington, MIA: 3-1 in 7

Tony Romo, DAL: 3-2 in 7 (5 starts)

Chad Pennington, NYJ: 3-2 in 11

Byron Leftwich, JAX: 2-1 in 6

Matt Hasselbeck, SEA: 3-3 in 7

Peyton Manning, IND: 3-3 in 11

Alex Smith, SF: 2-2 in 11

David Garrard: 1-1 in 6 (5 starts)

These guys can at least be depended on not to lose the game. Hasselbeck was a mess in the first half on Monday night, but he recovered when it mattered. Alex Smith has cut his bad decisions down from last year in a drastic fashion, a huge improvement. As you can see, the difference between Garrard and Leftwich is minimal in fourth quarter situations. And Peyton Manning hasn't had to throw a lot in the fourth quarter this year. But Harrington, doing something with that talented core of receivers and tight ends in Miami. If they can sneak one against Jacksonville, they have a chance at the playoffs.

Even Bets:

Steve McNair, BAL: 4-4 in 11

Jake Delhomme, CAR: 4-4 in 11

Jake Plummer, DEN: 4-4 in 11

Brett Favre, GB: 5-5 in 11

Eli Manning, NYG: 6-6 in 11

These guys can make plays, but clearly this season they can be accused of trying to force passes late. Favre will always be in this category unless his team is any good. McNair is a surprise, but the Ravens have been in five games decided by a touchdown or less, and he's 4-1. Plummer has always struggled in this category, and was part of the impetus for the article. The other is Delhomme. Usually solid, often impressive late in important games, Delhomme has struggled this year, and the team has lost two games by a combined seven points in losses to Cincinnati and Washington, teams the Panthers should've beaten. Delhomme threw picks in both of those games.

And as for Eli Manning, I'm sure big bro will straighten him out over the offseason, but he looks shaky for the home stretch. Bet the Giants wish they still had the Bachelor.

Losers:

Rex Grossman, CHI: 2-5 in 11

Brad Johnson, MIN: 3-5 in 11

Drew Bledsoe, DAL: 2-4 in 6

Trent Green, KC: 0-1 in 3

Seneca Wallace, SEA: 2-3 in 6 (4 starts)

Michael Vick, ATL: 0-1, no rushing TD"s in 11

Now there really are two groups here. The first three quarterbacks are throwing way too many interceptions late in the game. You don't think Parcells got mad at Bledsoe over late game picks? The dude threw two of them in the first game of the season, and never really improved. Grossman and Johnson aren't safe bets for playoff teams, because defense wins championships, and mistakes lose them. Green doesn't have that much to go on, having only played two fourth quarters. He led his team to a winning touchdown late against the Raiders, but he threw a pick late against the Broncos that gave them the ball down less than a touchdown.

And as for Michael Vick, I can't say that it's really his fault, but he's looking more and more like he'll never be that video game player.

Some fun figures for non-playoff QB's:

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: 3-9 in 10. Ouch!

Vince Young, TEN: 4-1 in 10 (8 starts). Watch out ...

David Carr, HOU: 7-1 in 11. This guy is like Steve Young when he used to play for the Bucs. So sad.

McNabb, PHI: 3-0 in 10. Always solid. Two of those came in that game against the Bucs where they almost came back from his two picks that Ronde Barber took to the house.

Tomorrow, I'll delve into the importance of TE's (besides Kellen Winslow Jr.) and get to my week's picks. Eight games between potential playoff contenders, this week will eliminate at least four teams. Can't wait, I'm gonna pad my stats, going from 13-17 to 19-19. Pray for it.

This week I go 2-3, the worst of it being the loss to the Rams by my beloved Niners. They will have to focus on the next game to keep them in the race, and I need to recalibrate my expectations. Maybe three reasons, not five, why the Niners will beat the Saints.

-Baltimore surpised me, knocking the Steelers out of contention. If they play as well as they did on Sunday, they can expect to beat Cincy and Kansas City in the next two weeks, and bear down upon a first round bye, which would certainly help McNair. The next games are on the road, so we'll see how the offense performs in opposing stadiums.

- Jake Delhomme kills the Panthers again with a fourth-quarter interception to end the game. Pay attention, this week's theme was game-killing interceptions. The consistency of the Carolina offense has to improve, as they face three teams in the playoff hunt in their conference on the road the rest of the way.

- Drew Brees lived up to the hype I assigned him. I will deal with the discussion about who's the best quarterback midweek in a separate column. Suffice to say, he's completed a pass of at least 50 yards 8 out of 11 games this season, the QB equivalent of Dominique Wilkins or Vince Carter.

- Michael Vick is getting no help, and it would be sad if Mora lost his job because Roddy White can't catch the ball. But these guys have lost four in a row and seem to be taking the postseason off this year. I don't know if Vick stopped running in the second half, or if the Saints got tired of looking like college players chasing him around like in the first half. But this team runs the ball too well to be kept out of the end zone like that.

-I don't know about Jacksonville. Fumbled interceptions, missed field goals, allowing kick returns for touchdowns. They should've won this game, and none of their remaining games are against soft opponents.

-San Diego cannot be stopped in the fourth quarter. And I love that back flip guy. They come up big in the end by intercepting Aaron Brooks at the end of the fourth quarter. Hmm.

-Behold Vince Young, second coming of Randall Cunningham. Eli Manning lost it for them, with two fourth quarter interceptions. But Young is gaining confidence, and that stride makes it hard to pick the right angle. His heroics will make the team a promising free agent destination, hopefully, because Tennessee only needs a couple of parts ...

-Kansas City had trouble in the red zone, but otherwise a solid performance with Trent Green back in the lineup. Coach Shanahan, this is the last chance to save your season. Plummer hasn't won a game against a winning team since October 9. Put in Cutler.

-I'm still not buying Romo. Let's see how he does next week.

-Nolan should've gone for it on fourth and inches, yes, I know. And they got robbed on that fumble recovery for a touchdown in the first half. But San Fran has to get better pressure on when a team goes four wide on them, because their corners only have three seconds of coverage in them.

-I don't know if Griese should come in for Grossman, but he did kill them with a fourth quarter interception! Again!

-P.S. Matt Leinart had a great game, but his hail mary at the end of the fourth quarter was intercepted to end the game. Just saying. To be fair, so did Alex Smith. That's six quarterbacks who threw fourth quarter interceptions in losing efforts!

Viva El Top 10! Lesgo!

1. Indianapolis Colts (1). I got some flack for calling Brees a better quarterback in the here and now than Peyton, and though the stats reflect that, Manning is still the most dominant and influential quarterback, maybe ever. I won't say he's better than anybody who's won at least two Super Bowls until he at least wins one, however. Gotta show that championship ability at some point. This may be the last chance for the Colts before the players lose faith and depart for teams with more interesting cities to live in.

2. San Diego Chargers (3). These guys are never out of a game. And now Merriman comes back. Marques Harris, you'll always have a job as cheerleader if you're NFL career peters out.

3. Baltimore Ravens (5). They are the best defense in the league, and that will always get you to the divisional playoffs.

4. New England Patriots (6). Huge win. They need desperately for their safeties to get healthy. But their offense got what it needed to win the game, and Troy Brown and Asante Samuel pitched in quite a bit.

5. Chicago Bears (2). They have a real problem on offense, with a bunch of easy teams to practice against until the playoffs. They'll still cruise into home field.

6. Denver Broncos (4). Their slide can't go on any longer if they want to make the playoffs. Because the Jets are going to go in at 11-5, and with KC tied with them and Jacksonville and Cincy a game behind they aren't going to slip in quietly.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (10). The road is tough from here on out, but these guys are coming together when it matters. No chance for the division, but a late season win at Denver might put them in the playoffs.

8. Dallas Cowboys (9). What is this world coming to? I have to give some to the 'Boys love for winning three straight in a conference where no other team has a multiple game winning streak right now.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (unranked). All they're doing is winning games, five of their last six. Three of those victories came against winning teams, two of which are in the AFC West. But four of those games were at home. Gotta win on the road to get in the playoffs.

10. New York Jets (unranked). These guys are for real, I keep telling you. They're in the playoffs, or my name isn't Lysol.

That's it for today, thank you if you actually read all this crap. Watch for a midweek column:

WHY TIGHT END PRODUCTION IS THE MOST IMPORTANT OFFENSIVE FACTOR IN SUCCESS

plus,

FOURTH QUARTER INTERCEPTIONS: THE SILENT KILLER

plus,

LYSOL PICKS THE WINNERS, featuring THREE REASONS WHY THE NINERS WILL EKE ONE OUT AGAINST THE GODLESS SAINTS.