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What are RotoEvil Ratings? (Fantasy Draft Guide sample #5)  

After years of studying the rating system's of ESPN, BasketballMonster, and NBA.com, I decided to come up with my own RotoEvil Ratings (RER).

I unveiled them to the public in 2007, and they helped a lot of people win their fantasy basketball leagues. I have made minor adjustments & fine tuned the values for '08-09, so here is a sample of the finest fantasy hoops rating system around.

How to Predict Career Years (Draft Guide sample #4)  

Besides being former Warriors, what do Mike Dunleavy and Jason Richardson have in common?

In '07-08, Mike-D and J-Rich shot the ball better than ever before and put up career-high numbers in several categories. In fact, you could say they had "career years," and as a result, their fantasy owners prospered.

Since drafting these type of players is essential to winning fantasy leagues, the purpose of this article is to show you that, often times, career years CAN be predicted. So what else do Dunleavy & Richardson have in common?

RotoEvil's Weekly Schedule Grid (Draft Guide sample #3)  

Most of the Schedule Grids that I've seen on other sites list the Teams on the X-axis and the Weeks on the Y-axis, which doesn't make sense to me. I think it's much more useful the other way around, so every year I create my own NBA Weekly Schedule Grid.

Click on the link to see how you can use this to your advantage...

RotoEvil's exclusive 1+ Block, 77% FT club (Draft Guide sample #2)  

What do Amare Stoudemire, David West, and Danny Granger have in common? All 3 were mentioned last year in my 1+ Block, 77% FT article.

Throughout history, the top shot-blockers have usually been poor free throw shooters. However, there are a handful of guys who can block 1+ shot per game without hurting your team's FT%, making them extremely valuable fantasy players.

I call this exclusive group the 1+ Block, 77% FT club. In '07-08, only 10 players made the cut. The year before, there were only 9. To qualify, a player must play in 40+ games, average 1+ block, and shoot 77% or better from the line.

First, I will list the 10 players who made the club last season, show what I wrote about them a year ago, recap what they did in '07-08, and then predict how those stats may change in the upcoming season. After that, I will analyze the 8 leading candidates to join the club in '08-09. If you're ready to dominate your league, then just click on the link!

RotoEvil's exclusive 1+ Three, 47% FG club (Draft Guide sample #1)  

When you attempt a lot of threes, your FG% usually pays the price. This is especially true in fantasy hoops, which is why I created the 1+ Three, 47% FG club. In '07-08, only 13 players made the cut. The year before, there were only 12. To qualify, a player must play in 40+ games, average 1+ three, and shoot 47% or better from the field.

By targeting some of these players, you will achieve a superb balance between threes & FG%, immediately gaining an advantage over your opponents. If you want to dominate your league, plus find out what Steve Nash, Brent Barry, and Mike Miller have done that no one else in NBA history has, then just click on the link...

Only click here if you want to dominate your fantasy basketball league  

Greetings fellow NBA fans. I am pleased to announce that RotoEvil's NBA Fantasy Draft Guide '08-09 is almost here!

Over the next 10 days, I will be giving you a sneak peak of everything that's included in the guide: from my exclusive clubs & RotoEvil Ratings, to unique strategy ideas, to mid-round, last round & career year sleeper picks, to useful team management tools, and more!

Basically, if you're not excited, confident, and eagerly anticipating the upcoming fantasy basketball season right now, you WILL BE in 10 days.

What are my credentials? Well, over the past 4 years, I've won over $15,000 just from playing fantasy hoops. I helped many people win their leagues last year, and I'm going to help even more dominate in '08-09.

Western Conference Coaches & GMs (20 Years Ago)  

Here's Part 2 of "What were today's coaches and GMs doing 20 years ago?" Byron Scott, Reggie Theus, Phil Jackson, Terry Porter, Nate McMillan, Chris Mullin, and Don Nelson are featured, among others...

Team Preview #30: Miami Heat (Last one!!!)  

It took me 45 days instead of 30, but I just finished writing NBA Fantasy Team Previews for all 30 teams. Last but not least is the Miami Heat.

Just click on the link. There's a poll asking where you'll draft Shawn Marion, some trivia questions, and of course, my top sleeper pick. I hope some people enjoyed these!

Stay tuned for RotoEvil's NBA Fantasy Draft Guide, which is going to be far superior than anything else you'll find. Don't believe me? Just wait...

Team Preview #27: Minnesota Timberwolves  

Can Big Al & Kev-Love both average double-doubles?

LAST SEASON

The Timberwolves went 22-60, missing the Playoffs for the 4th year in a row. Randy Foye missed over half the season, but Minnesota simply wasn't a very good team.

They ranked 6th in field goals attempted, but just 25th in threes made, 26th in scoring, 26th in assists, 29th in blocks, and 29th in free throws attempted.

OFFSEASON MOVES

Key Additions: Mike Miller, Kevin Love, Jason Collins, Brian Cardinal, Rodney Carney, Booth, Pekovic

Key Losses: Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner, Kirk Snyder

The T-Wolves definitely improved over the summer, trading away their top pick (OJ Mayo), a washed-up former All-Star ( Antoine Walker), and two bad contracts (Jaric + Buckner) for Mike Miller, Kevin Love, Jason Collins, and Brian Cardinal. Cardinal still has 2 years and $13 million remaining on his contract, but Minnesota got the prospect that they wanted, an excellent offensive player in Miller, and a veteran big man.

In a separate trade, they also picked up the athletic swingman Rodney Carney, the 7-footer Booth, and a future 1st rounder from Philly for just a 2nd round pick and a trade exemption. Carney will likely replace Kirk Snyder, who played a key role off the bench for Minnesota last season. In the draft, they also chose the Serbian Nikola Pekovic at #31, who is 6-foot-11 and put up excellent stats in the Euroleague (16.4 points on 58.4% FG). The Wolves also managed to re-sign Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith, and Sebastian Telfair, 3 key players from last season.

ROTATION / PLAYING TIME

Point guard is the biggest question mark for Minnesota. Randy Foye has flashed some potential, but he missed a big chunk of last season due to a kneecap injury (31 starts, 32.3 mpg) and has yet to really prove himself in the NBA (unlike Brandon Roy, the man he was traded for on draft night). They need Foye to step up, because Telfair (51 starts, 32.2 mpg) has improved, but he's clearly a backup and nothing more. If both are healthy, I'll project 32-34 minutes for Foye and 16-18 minutes for Telfair. Rashad McCants (75 starts, 27.0 mpg) played surprisingly well last season, but he's headed back to the bench with Mike Miller now in town. I'm projecting 34-36 minutes for Miller and just 16-18 minutes for McCants, while Carney is limited to garbage time.

At small forward, there's a battle for minutes between Ryan Gomes (26 years old, 29.7 mpg) and Corey Brewer (22 years old, 22.8 mpg). Gomes is a much better offensive player and more reliable to boot, but Brewer is the better defender. Since Minnesota could use some defense in their lineup, I'm predicting Brewer to start and get 24-26 minutes of action. Meanwhile, Gomes would be an excellent 6th man who can play 30+ minutes backing up both forward spots. Kevin Love should immediately step into the starting lineup and get 28-30 minutes off the bat, and possibly more as the season progresses. Al Jefferson is a lock for 36 minutes at center, while Craig Smith will get around 18 minutes as the first big man off the bench. The veteran crew of Jason Collins, Calvin Booth, Mark Madsen (yes, he's still around!), and Brian Cardinal will fight for the remaining minutes.

DON'T SLEEP ON: Kevin Love

Two months ago, I called out Rotoworld for naming Craig Smith the starter and underestimating Kevin Love's fantasy potential. The former Bruin is going to flirt with double-doubles on a nightly basis, is an excellent passer, and should post solid shooting %'s. Here's what I said about Love's free throw shooting in particular:

25 NBA players averaged 9+ boards last season (Love pulled down 10.6 in college), but only 9 of those 25 shot 75% or better from the line (Love shot 76.7% FT). Now of those 9, only 5 averaged 4.5 or more free throw attempts per game (Love averaged 6.6 FTA at UCLA and had 11 games with 10+ attempts). Their names? Amare Stoudemire, Kevin Garnett, Yao Ming, Chris Kaman, and Antawn Jamison. Clearly, Love has a very good chance of joining a select group of big men who can provide you with lots of rebounds while also helping out (or at least not hurting) your overall FT%. That makes the rookie very valuable in my mind.

BE CAREFUL OF: Al Jefferson

I'm high on Love, but I'm down on Big Al. Jefferson was the ONLY player to average 21+ points and 11+ rebounds in '07-08, but he'll have trouble duplicating those stats with the addition of Love. Last season, only 3 other players averaged 4+ boards for Minnesota: Gomes (5.8), Craig Smith (4.6), and Kirk Snyder (4.2). Gomes played a lot of power forward, but now he's going to slide over to SF to accomodate Love, who is a vastly superior rebounder. At shooting guard, Mike Miller (career 5.3 boards per 36 mpg) is also a superior rebounder compared to McCants (career 3.6 boards per 36 mpg).

Now consider Telfair's career average of 11.9 points per 36 minutes vs. Randy Foye's career average of 15.4 points per 36. A healthy Foye is capable of scoring in bunches and Miller is also an excellent offensive player, which means fewer shot attempts for Jefferson in '08-09. The 20 & 10 club is still pretty exclusive, but it's not the same as 21 & 11. Big Al is still one of the top fantasy centers, but I don't suggest using a Top 30 pick on him.

ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS

(Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and-- man rosters)

Click on the link to find out!

Team Preview #28: Memphis Grizzlies  

Assuming the Knicks trade goes thru, how in the world could Employee #8 impact Zach Randolph's fantasy value and future career?

LAST SEASON

The Grizzlies lost 60 games for the 2nd year in a row, and after 6 1/2 years in Memphis, they traded away Pau Gasol. 1st year coach Mike Iavaroni came over from Phoenix and implemented an uptempo offense. As a result, they were 7th in pace factor (95.3), 7th in threes (7.6) & 10th in scoring (100.7), but 28th in points (106.9) & 30th in FG% (48.0%) allowed.

OFFSEASON MOVES

Key Additions: OJ Mayo, D. Arthur, Marc Gasol, H. Haddadi, A. Walker, G. Buckner, Randolph?, Jaric?

Key Losses: Mike Miller, JC Navarro, B. Cardinal, J. Collins, K. Brown, Darko Milicic?, Crittenton?

On draft day, the Grizz continued their re-building process by trading away rookie prospect Kevin Love, 28-year old Mike Miller, and veterans Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins for rookie phenom O.J Mayo and veterans Greg Buckner, Antoine Walker, and Marko Jaric. While Mayo has a higher ceiling than Miller, Mike was in his prime, so expect the Grizzlies to struggle once again.

They also lost the sharpshooting Juan Carlos Navarro, who returned to Spain. However, two intriguing 7-footers from overseas have been added to their '08-09 roster. Pau's younger brother, Marc Gasol, came over in the Lakers trade and is listed at 7-foot-1, 265 pounds. Iranian center Hamed Haddadi is listed at 7-foot-2, 255 pounds, and he led the '08 Olympics in rebounds and blocks. Both are 23-year old prospects with solid skills, but it remains to be seen what kind of impact they'll have in the NBA.

Of course, the trade that everyone around the league is currently talking about is Zach Randolph to Memphis for Darko Milicic + Marko Jaric. It makes sense for both squads, as Memphis needs a veteran big man and New York wants to get rid of Randolph for multiple reasons. The two teams are going back and forth, as Memphis wants a 1st round pick thrown in and NY wants Kyle Lowry. The Grizz countered by throwing in Javaris Crittenton, and I'm guessing that trade will eventually go thru, but perhaps with a 2nd round pick instead of a 1st.

ROTATION / PLAYING TIME

I'm going to predict this rotation with the assumption that the Randolph trade will happen. At point guard, Mike Conley. enters his second season and Kyle Lowry enters his third, where things should be a bit easier for both. I'm projecting 28-30 minutes for Conley and 24-26 for Lowry. Both are too short for SG, but since their games are very different, I think the Grizz will try play them together for brief stretches here and there.

Mayo steps into the starting lineup immediately and is my preseason pick for most minutes played by a rookie (notice I didn't say R.O.Y.). I'm projecting 30-32 minutes from the get-go, and perhaps 34-36 by the end of the season. If Javaris stays in town, he'll get all of the backup minutes, but it sounds like he & Jaric may be gone. If that is the case, Greg Buckner will be their ONLY backup swingman! They will likely add one soon, but why didn't they just keep Tarence Kinsey??? At small forward, Rudy Gay is the man. He just turned 22 in August, but he's already this team's top player and leader on the floor. Bump his minutes up from 37 to 38, and if he continues to improve, watch out!

If Zach Daddy rolls into Tennessee, expect him to start at power forward, play 34+ minutes per game, and help Memphis immensely. Is Marc Gasol ready to start at center? Maybe not, but I think the Grizz are willing to find out. I'm not expecting more than 28 mpg, but he's got a lot of top-level international experience and is definitely a BIG body with some skills. I didn't catch Mr. Haddadi in the Olympics, but obviously Memphis likes him. IF he's ready, he could get a lot of playing time as their backup center, but if he's not, he might ride the pine while Randolph slides over to the "5."

Which brings us to Hakim Warrick (30 starts, 23.4 mpg in '07-08). The former Orangeman will likely come off the bench due to Randolph, but he could get 24-30 minutes per as their 6th man. I don't think Kansas rookie Darrell Arthur is ready to contribute much right now, but as we've already seen, he'll likely have a lot of fun in hotel rooms all over North America. Antoine Walker's PER was 18.9 in '00-01, but just 9.6 in '06-07 and a more respectable 11.4 last season. I think that teaming him up with Zach Randolph at this point in their careers is either a really good idea or a really bad one.

DON'T SLEEP ON: Zach Randolph

This sounds kind of crazy, but I think that Antoine Walker could have a big impact on Zach Randolph's fantasy value and future career. Walker just turned 32 in August, but Memphis is his 6th team in 4 years and there's a possibility that this is his last season in the league. Unless they're run by idiots, Memphis won't pick up the $10 million option for A. Walker in '09-10 (and the $10.8 mill that follows in '10-11), so Employee #8 better have a good season if he wants to remain employed in the NBA. And by "good season," I mean solid contributions on the court, but even bigger ones in the locker room.

So which Antoine Walker is going to show up? The one who's overweight and eating donuts, depressed because nobody wants him, who's accepted that this is his last year in the league and is ready to just collect checks? Or the one who's ready to bust his ass to get into shape, go hard at Zach Randolph every day in practice, and be the veteran leader that this young team so desperately needs (excluding Darko, they still have 8 players 23 or younger!)?

While I don't have much faith in this prediction, I'll put money on the latter one. I envision the arrival of Randolph rejuvenating Walker. Since both players have taken heat from fans and the media alike in the past, and since both are "big boned" power forwards with versatile skills, I predict them getting along well off the court, developing an "us vs. them" attitude, and working harder than ever before to try and silence their haters.

Walker, who at the age of 26 was a 3-time All-Star and #2 option on a team that went to the Eastern Conference Finals, will immediately realize that Randolph just turned 27 (still in his prime), but has zero All-Star appearances and has never made it past the 1st Round of the Playoffs. Knowing how quickly his career slipped out from under him (and how Randolph might be going down the same path), I foresee Antoine taking him under his wing and motivating Zach to work harder and make the most of his skills. (Either that, or he offers him custard-filled maple bars and challenges him to fadeaway 3-point shooting contests every morning).

But seriously, go back to June, when Kevin Garnett was hoisting that shiny gold Championship trophy and Paul Pierce was being named Finals MVP. You don't think that stung Antoine Walker a bit? Sure, he won a ring with Miami back in '05-06, but Pierce used to be his partner in crime, and now their careers are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Will Walker let all of this bring him down, or will he make the most of it by helping Zach Randolph reach the next level?

Boring Analysis: Even if 'Toine doesn't help, there are plenty of points to be scored and rebounds to be pulled down for the Grizz. And even a donut-eating Zach Randolph can help out with that.

BE CAREFUL OF: Mike Conley, Jr. & Kyle Lowry

Memphis was a horrible team last year, but Rudy Gay put up superstar stats and Mike Miller was rock solid. However, both Conley & Lowry struggled to have any fantasy value. Obviously, both guys were very young and didn't get enough minutes to put up big numbers, but perhaps they were already doomed for fantasy failure due to the fact that they were PG's on a losing team.

In this article that I wrote after the '06-07 season, I examined if player's fantasy values were affected by their team's winning percentage. You can read it for yourself, but my conclusion was that it didn't really matter for swingmen or big men, but point guards on losing teams had a much tougher time having fantasy value compared to their winning counterparts (as evidenced by Chris Paul being the ONLY point on a losing team to crack the Top 60 in '06-07, while 6 of the Top 20 fantasy players were PG's from winning teams).

If you agree with this theory, then you probably want to avoid Conley & Lowry this season. Memphis will likely lose a lot of games once again, and the 2 men will limit each other's minutes and value. Don't get me wrong, Conley should put up much better stats and is worth a late-round pick, but you should be very wary of drafting him too soon.

ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS

(Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and-- man rosters)

Click on the link to find out!

Team Preview #25: Los Angeles Clippers  

Ricky Davis or Al Thornton?

LAST SEASON

The Clippers were a miserable 23-59, and missed the Playoffs for the 10th time in 11 years. Of course, it didn't help that Elton Brand missed 90% of the season. How bad were they? The Clips finished 27th in rebounds (40.1), 28th in threes made (4.3), 29th in 3P% (32.4%), 29th in FG% (43.8%), and 29th in scoring (93.8).

OFFSEASON MOVES

Key Additions: Baron Davis, Marcus Camby, Ricky Davis, J. Williams, E. Gordon, B. Skinner, J. Hart

Key Losses: Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Quinton Ross, S. Livingston, B. Knight, J. Powell, D. Dickau

The other L.A. team added a whopping 10 new faces to their roster over the summer. The loss of Elton Brand cannot be fully compensated for, but the signing of superstar Baron Davis was a real coup for a team with a just deserved reputation of being cheap and driving away top free agents. Their new point guards (Baron, Jason Williams, Jason Hart, Mike Taylor) will be a major improvement over last season ( Sam Cassell, Brevin Knight, Dan Dickau, Smush Parker).

Adding Camby for next to nothing was a sweet deal, and Ricky Davis is an excellent (read: much cheaper) replacement for Maggette. To replace Josh Powell, the Clippers added veteran big man Brian Skinner, who played for them from '98-01. In the draft, they selected 6-3 shooting guard Eric Gordon at #7, and 20-year old center DeAndre Jordan at #35. Gordon is a scoring machine, but he can't play defense like Q-Ross.

ROTATION / PLAYING TIME

No question, this is now Baron Davis' team, so mark him down for 36-38 minutes at point guard, while Jay-Will & J-Hart battle to be his backup. Joining Baron in the backcourt is Cuttino Mobley, who just turned 33 a few days ago. He averaged 35 mpg last season, but with more depth, you can expect that number to fall to 30-32 for '08-09. I'm projecting the former Hoosier Gordon to get 10-12 minutes backing him up.

Al Thornton had a solid rookie season (12.7 points in 27.4 mpg) and is expected to start at small forward. I was projecting big minutes for him until L.A. added Marcus & Ricky. Now I think he'll hover around 28-30 mpg. Ricky Davis could challenge for a starting spot, but will likely be the team's leading scorer off the bench instead. If he accepts his new role, he could get 30+ minutes and be one of the league's top 6th men.

After years of playing center, Marcus Camby will slide over to power forward this season. He's 34 years old, but you can still expect 34 solid minutes from him. Kaman saw 37.2 minutes of action last season and enjoyed a breakout season in Brand's absence, but that number will likely fall to 35-36 thanks to improved depth. Skinner is a very capable backup center, and he and Camby will make sure this team finishes better than 27th in rebounding. The odd man out appears to be Tim Thomas, who scored 12.4 points in 30.8 mpg last season. Until someone gets injured, TT will likely struggle to average more than 15 minutes per game.

BE CAREFUL OF: Al Thornton

Thornton was thrown into the fire as a rookie and performed fairly well, earning 1st team All-Rookie honors. In 31 starts, he averaged 15.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, .7 steals, .65 blocks, and .6 threes in 35.5 minutes while shooting 42.6% FG and 76.2% FT. Since he's likely to improve to in his 2nd season, you can see why a lot of people like him. After Elton Brand bounced to Philly, I liked him too, but then the Clippers traded for Marcus Camby, signed Ricky Davis, and signed Brian Skinner.

While Skinner won't steal minutes from Al directly, he and Kaman will push Camby into the power forward slot. This is key, because Thornton played the majority of his minutes at PF last season. So Al will have to get most of his minutes at small forward this season, but the addition of Ricky Davis is going to cramp his style. Davis can play shooting guard as well, but Mobley & Gordon are already there, which means that Thornton will struggle to get 32+ minutes unless there's an injury.

Even when the former Seminole got 35+ minutes, he wasn't a great fantasy player. Sure, he can score in bunches, but he shoots a poor % from the field (without hitting a lot of threes to make up for it), doesn't get a ton of steals or blocks, and rarely passes the ball. As I said, he pulled down a respectable 6 boards per game in 31 starts, but do you think he'll even come close to that number with Camby & Baron (the top rebounding PG after Kidd) now in town? Some people are projecting him as a Top 100 fantasy player, but I say he'll struggle to crack the Top 150.

DON'T SLEEP ON: Ricky Davis

Not too long ago, Stephen Jackson was considered a talented team cancer with a bad temper and a penchant for getting into trouble. But then he hooked up with Baron Davis & Don Nelson, became a LEADER, and immediately turned into one of the most versatile and valuable players in the league. Similarly, Ricky Davis has gotten a rep for being a selfish player with a bad attitude. He doesn't turn 29 until later this month, but the Clippers will be his 8th NBA team. But if there's one superstar PG who can help him turn his career around, it's Baron Davis.

Even tho he played in all 82 games and got plenty of PT, last season was a disaster for Ricky Davis & the Miami Heat. As a result, his points, assists, and FG% suffered badly. Due to his poor '07-08 stats and the fact that he'll likely come off the bench this season, Davis could fall far in your fantasy draft. But just like Stephen Jackson, Ricky Davis is capable of putting up excellent all-around numbers, so don't be afraid of this "team cancer."

*Thanks to long-time Clipper fan John L. for the assist, altho he likes Thornton much more than I do.

ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS

(Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and-- man rosters)

Click on the link to find out!

Team Preview #24: Milwaukee Bucks  

PG battle: Ridnour vs. Sessions...

LAST SEASON

The Bucks went 26-56 under coach Larry Krystowiak, and have now lost 110 games over the past 2 seasons. They finished 11th in field goals attempted (82.2), but just 20th in points (97.0) per game, and were mediocre in almost every other category.

Right after the season ended, Scott Skiles agreed to a multi-year deal to be the Bucks' new head coach.

OFFSEASON MOVES

Key Additions: R. Jefferson, L. Ridnour, T. Lue, F. Elson, A. Griffin, M. Allen, D. Jones, J. Alexander

Key Losses: Mo Williams, Yi Jianlian, Bobby Simmons, Desmond Mason, Royal Ivey

Milwaukee made some bold moves over the summer to try and strengthen their current team and the future of their franchise. First, they traded away Yi & Simmons to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson to upgrade at small forward. Later, they got rid of Mo Williams and his $43 million contract (along with Desmond Mason) for Luke Ridnour, Adrian Griffin, and Damon Jones.

They also picked up veterans Tyronn Lue, Malik Allen, and Francisco Elson via free agency for added depth & leadership. In the draft, they selected forwards Joe Alexander at #8 and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at #37. In one of the funniest & most intriguing DraftExpress comparisons, Alexander's best-case scenario is listed as a "super athletic Matt Harpring." Both players lack polish, so they may not contribute right away.

ROTATION / PLAYING TIME

Let's start at center, where Andrew Bogut played 34.1 minutes before the All-Star break last season, but 36.6 afterwards. He was much better in the 2nd half, so mark him down for 36 mpg in '08-09. Elson & Dan Gadzuric will battle for backup minutes. The departure of Yi to New Jersey opens up more minutes for Charlie Villanueva at power forward. The 24-year old has struggled since his solid rookie campaign, but without Jianlian cramping his style, I'm projecting Charlie's minutes to shoot up from 24 to 30+ and him having a possible breakout season. Malik Allen will come off the bench and play 10-12 mpg. At small forward, Richard Jefferson will see around 38 minutes of action, while I'm projecting the rookie Alexander to get---16 minutes backing up both forward spots. Don't forget about Adrian Griffin, who can still be a defensive stopper when they need him.

At shooting guard, Michael Redd will get his usual 37-39 minutes per game while Charlie Bell backs him up. The real battle here is at point guard, where Luke Ridnour, Ramon Sessions, Tyronn Lue, and Damon Jones will all vie for minutes. Don't forget that Skiles still holds the NBA record for most assists in a game with 30, so he won't be giving out minutes to just anyone. Due to his experience advantage, I'm penciling in Ridnour as the opening day starter. I'm projecting 26-28 mpg for Luke to start the season, while Sessions gets 16-18 minutes and Lue gets the rest of the PT. However, if Ridnour falters, don't be surprised to see Sessions emerge as the starter and put up big numbers.

DON'T SLEEP ON: Andrew Bogut

After the All-Star break, Andrew Bogut was a rock solid fantasy center. In 25 games, he averaged 16.3 points, 11.6 boards, 2.8 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 blocks in 36.6 minutes per game, while shooting 53.4% FG. In perhaps the most ridiculous stat increase of '07-08, he blocked 1 every 20.2 minutes last season after swatting just 1 shot every 64.5 minutes in '06-07. He was consistent too, as he rejected 1.75 shots per game before the break, and 1.68 per afterwards.

His FT% sucks, but I'm high on Bogut because I think the addition of R-Jeff is really going to help him. The Aussie is one of the best passing big men in the league, and adding an athletic slasher like Jefferson can only mean good things. The guy dished out a career-high 3.0 assists per game in '06-07, and could challenge that number in '08-09. With less pressure on him offensively, his already solid FG% should also improve. Bogut turns 24 in November and is still improving, so don't hesitate to use a Top 75 pick on him.

BE CAREFUL OF: Luke Ridnour & Ramon Sessions

I'm not a big fan of Luke Ridnour, but at 27 years old, he has a lot more experience than Sessions. A change of scenery should also help Ridnour out a lot, as he can't play much worse than he did in Seattle last season. And even if Ramon outplays Luke in preseason, I'm predicting that Skiles will begin the year with Ridnour as his starting PG. How come? Well, if Ridnour starts the season on the bench, I believe his confidence would take a much bigger hit than if Sessions starts on the bench.

Meanwhile, Sessions burst onto the scene late in the year and averaged a whopping 11.5 points, 11.3 assists, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.5 steals in April, giving many fantasy owners the boost they needed to win their leagues. As a result, he has a lot of fans out there eager to gamble on him in hopes that he'll win the starting job. And if those people are blinded by the 13.1 dimes that he averaged in 7 starts last season, they could draft Ramon way too soon this year.

My advice: Don't draft either one unless they're still available in the very last rounds. If Ridnour is named starter before your draft takes place, he'll likely be gone by Round 11. Sessions is an excellent last round upside pick, but if someone gambles on him much sooner, don't worry. I'm guessing that Ramon won't get enough minutes to have value at the start of the season, so a lot of owners will drop him right away. And then, whenever it looks like Luke might falter, you can swoop in and get Sessions for free!

ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS

(Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and-- man rosters)

Click on the link to find out!
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