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Christian Mbilli vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko: Who Wins?

Originally posted on Fights Around The World
By Abraham Gonzalez | Last updated Aug 16, 2024 8:13 AM ET

The country of Canada isn’t known as a breeding ground for talent in boxing, but it’s slowly developing some good fighters who have the potential to become world champions. Although super middleweight contender Christian Mbilli (27-0, 23 KOs) is from Cameroon, he moved to France but has now become the adopted son of Canada as his career is guided by Eye of the Tiger, based out of Quebec. Mbilli is on the cusp of a world title and standing in the way of that is 38-year-old Sergiy Derevyanchenko (15-5, 10 KOs). The fight will stream on all of ESPN’s platforms, setting the stage for a big Mbilli coming out party, but will he get exposed by the tough Ukrainian or will he increase the demand for a Canelo fight in the future?

Right Place, Right Time For Mbilli

Although casual fans will probably hear the last name Mbilli for the first time on Saturday night, the hardcores are very familiar with him. Between social media outlets and ESPN+, fans have witnessed Mbilli’s fights as he continues to ascend in the sport. The ultimate goal is to land the division’s king, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, and Saturday Night looks to begin that campaign as Mbilli is headlining on all of ESPN’s platforms. The lowest ranking Mbilli is currently sitting at is #3 with the WBO, which means he is knocking at the door of a title shot either with Canelo or potentially the winner of William Skull vs. Vladimir Shishkin if that gets made for this fall. The stakes are high for Mbilli, so if he wants to make a statement, he has to be the first to stop Derevyanchenko.

This is truly the right place and right time for Mbilli. It is the right place on the linear ESPN platform and the right time with an opponent like Derevyanchenko. Mbilli will have to do what Jaime Munguia failed to do against Derevyanchenko, establishing a body attack from the start. This may be easy for Mbilli, an all-action fighter who loves to go down to the body of his opponents. That’s how you break down the 38-year-old Derevyanchenko, who has been in some wars throughout his career. If Mbilli can do that, take advantage of Derevyanchenko’s low hands and lack of defense throughout the fight, Mbilli could build enough momentum to stop Derevyanchenko for the first time in his career whether that’s by knockout or an accumulation of punishment.

Does Derevyanchenko Have Anything Left?

On the surface, the answer to that question would be yes, but as you know, when you start to approach 40, it only takes that one fight for you to look like an aged fighter, regardless if you haven’t in the past. Derevyanchenko has been in with some of boxing’s best (Gennadiy Golovkin, Jaime Munguia, Jermall Charlo, Daniel Jacobs, etc.), and each time, it felt like he won the battle but didn’t win the war. With every tough fight, it also appeared that a piece of Derevyanchenko was left in the ring, and that can only happen but so many times before it finally catches up to you. It’s impossible to say right now that Saturday night will be that moment, but if it is, this could be the last time we see Derevyanchenko in the ring. If it isn’t, it will be a very tough night for Mbilli.

How does Derevyanchenko defy the betting odds underdog status and pull off the upset? He has to apply a tremendous amount of pressure on Mbilli and punch with him. He can try to force Mbilli to fight on the back foot and catch him when he opens up with his punches, as they are wide at times. We all haven’t seen Mbilli fight a battle-tested opponent on the back foot, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts and if Derevyanchenko can be successful in doing so. Although Derevyanchenko wouldn’t win a decision in Canada, this fight, more than ever, would be the moment he goes for it early in the fight.

CHRISTIAN MBILLI VS SERGIY DEREVYANCHENKO PREDICTION

There is no question that Derevyanchenko is as rugged as they come but he has a ton of miles on his odometer and with all of the tough fights he’s been in, Saturday night is when it all catches up to him. This may be hard to imagine but look for Mbilli to stop Derevyanchenko between rounds 8-11 making it the first time the Ukrainian doesn’t hear the final bell in a loss.