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ACC Basketball Tournament Seeding Scenarios

Originally posted on Virginia Cavaliers on SI
By Matthew Newton | Last updated Mar 8, 2025 2:24 AM ET

As we enter the final weekend of the college basketball regular season, the seeds and matchups for next week's ACC Men's Basketball Tournament are nearly set, but there are still some significant changes that can take place in the conference standings with the outcomes of Saturday's games.

Here are the current ACC men's basketball standings as well as what's at stake for each team's seeding scenarios for the 2025 ACC Tournament on the last day of the regular season.

Seeding Scenarios for the 2025 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament

1. Duke (18-1)

Final game: at North Carolina (6:30pm on ESPN)

While this has been an utterly dominant season for Jon Scheyer's Blue Devils, who have been in the driver's seat of the ACC for the entire campaign and have already clinched at least a share of the ACC regular season title, Duke could still finish as low as the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament. A win over the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill secures the outright regular season title and the No. 1 seed in next week's ACC Tournament, but a loss puts the Blue Devils in jeopardy. Clemson handed Duke its only loss of ACC play, so the Tigers own the head-to-head tiebreaker if it came to that. And if Duke loses and Louisville and Clemson both win their games, Duke would finish as the No. 3 seed.

2. Louisville (17-2)

Final game: vs. Stanford (2pm on ESPNU)

This has been quite a remarkable season for Pat Kelsey, who deserves Coach of the Year honors after taking Louisville from worst to potentially first if things go the right way on Saturday. The Cardinals are tied with Clemson for second place, but own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tigers. Louisville can clinch the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament with a win over Stanford, a Clemson win over Virginia Tech, and a Duke loss to North Carolina. If Clemson doesn't win, but Duke loses and Louisville wins, then the Cards get the No. 2 seed, but still clinch a share of the ACC regular season title. Louisville could also drop to the No. 3 seed with a loss and a Clemson win.

3. Clemson (17-2)

Final game: vs. Virginia Tech (6pm on ESPNU)

Clemson can clinch the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament with a win over Virginia Tech and losses by Duke and Louisville. If Duke and Louisville win, Clemson can finish no higher than the No. 3 seed. If Duke loses, Louisville wins, and Clemson wins, the Tigers get the No. 2 seed, while the Cards get the No. 1 seed. Clemson owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Duke, but does not have that tiebreaker with Louisville.

4. North Carolina (13-6)

Final game: vs. Duke (6:30pm on ESPN)

North Carolina can clinch the No. 4 seed and the final double-bye for the ACC Tournament with a win over Duke, but the Heels can also get the No. 4 seed with a loss, if both SMU and Wake Forest also lose their games. UNC could finish as low as the No. 6 seed with a loss to Duke and wins by both SMU and Wake Forest. Similarly, North Carolina would finish as the No. 5 seed if just one of SMU and Wake wins its last game along with a UNC loss to Duke.

5. SMU (13-6)

Final game: at Florida State (4pm on ESPNU)

SMU can clinch the No. 4 seed and the double-bye for the ACC Tournament with a win at Florida State and a loss by North Carolina. If the Mustangs lose their final game, they could finish as low as the No. 6 seed if UNC and Wake Forest both win. If SMU, North Carolina, and Wake Forest all win, then SMU gets the No. 5 seed.

6. Wake Forest (12-7)

Final game: vs. Georgia Tech (2:15pm on The CW Network)

Wake Forest can only get the No. 4 seed with a win over Georgia Tech and with losses by both North Carolina and SMU. If Wake, SMU, and UNC all win or all lose, then Wake Forest gets the No. 6 seed. Wake would move up to the No. 5 seed with a win and a loss by either SMU or UNC.

7. Stanford (11-8)

Final game: at Louisville (2pm on ESPNU)

Stanford cannot rise to the No. 6 seed even with a win over Louisville and a Wake Forest loss, as Wake Forest swept Stanford this season. Stanford can fall to the No. 8 seed with a loss to Louisville and a win by Georgia Tech over Wake, as the Yellow Jackets beat the Cardinal head-to-head. Stanford would stay put at the No. 7 seed with a win over Louisville or a loss by Georgia Tech.

8. Georgia Tech (10-9)

Final game: at Wake Forest (2:15pm on The CW Network)

Georgia Tech can move up to the No. 7 seed with a win over Wake Forest and a Stanford loss at Louisville. Otherwise, the Yellow Jackets will stay put at the No. 8 seed in the ACC Tournament.

9. Virginia (8-11)

Final game: at Syracuse (8pm on ACC Network)

Virginia can clinch the No. 9 seed and the final first round bye for the ACC Tournament with a win over Syracuse and a loss by Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers can also get the No. 9 seed with a loss to Syracuse, but there are dozens of scenarios triggered by a loss to Syracuse, as it would bring the 7-12 teams - Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Notre Dame - into play as well as Virginia Tech if the Hokies lose to Clemson. Some of those scenarios start to include tiebreakers based around the teams' records against the top teams in the ACC, which is still undetermined, and that's why there are too many scenarios to keep track of. As far as we can tell, even with a loss at Syracuse, Virginia can finish as high as the No. 9 seed or as low as the No. 11 seed. If Virginia loses and Virginia Tech wins, the Hokies get the No. 9 seed. Virginia gets the No. 9 seed with a win and a Virginia Tech loss. If both the Hoos and the Hokies win, then Virginia Tech gets the No. 9 seed and Virginia gets the No. 10 seed.

10. Virginia Tech (8-11)

Final game: at Clemson (6pm on ESPNU)

Virginia Tech can clinch the No. 9 seed and the final first round bye for the ACC Tournament with a win over Clemson. The Hokies would then own the tiebreaker over Virginia even if the Cavaliers win because Virginia Tech has the better win. With a loss at Clemson, Virginia Tech could finish as low as the No. 12 seed if things go a certain way on Saturday (VT loss, UVA win, Pitt win, ND loss, FSU win). The Hokies would most likely finish as the No. 10 or No. 11 seed if they lose on Saturday, though.

11. Florida State (7-12)

Final game: vs. SMU (4pm on ESPNU)

Florida State can move up to the No. 10 seed in the ACC Tournament with a win over SMU and losses by Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Boston College. That's a very specific scenario and it still doesn't get the Seminoles to the No. 9 seed and that first round bye, which is impossible because Florida State lost to both Virginia and Virginia Tech this season. Florida State could also finish as low as the No. 13 seed with a loss to SMU and wins by some of the teams around them in the standings (namely, Pitt and Notre Dame).

12. Notre Dame (7-12)

Final game: vs. California (4pm on ACC Network)

Notre Dame could potentially rise as high as the No. 9 seed and get that first round bye in the ACC Tournament if the following occurs: Notre Dame beats Cal, Syracuse beats Virginia, Clemson beats Virginia Tech, Pitt beats Boston College, and SMU beats Florida State. In that scenario, there would be a four-way tie for 9th place at 8-12. Notre Dame would get the No. 9 seed with the best winning percentage against the group at 2-1. Just to show how complicated these scenarios and tiebreaking procedures are (and illustrate why we aren't explaining every scenario), if you were to change that last game to a Florida State win over SMU, it would create a five-team tie for 9th place at 8-12 and Notre Dame would suddenly drop to the No. 12 seed. The Fighting Irish could actually drop as low as the No. 15 seed if they lose to Cal and with wins by Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt, and Florida State. That's right: Notre Dame could finish as high as the No. 9 seed (with a first round bye) or as low as the No. 15 seed, the final spot in the tournament field.

13. Pittsburgh (7-12)

Final game: vs. Boston College (6pm on ACC Network)

Pittsburgh can rise to the No. 10 seed with a win over Boston College and losses by Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Notre Dame. In that scenario, Pitt wins a head-to-head tiebreaker with Virginia Tech for the No. 10 seed. There is also a scenario where there is a five-team tie for 9th place at 8-12, but the Panthers would lose that tiebreaker badly and end up with the No. 13 seed.

14. Syracuse (6-13)

Final game: vs. Virginia (8pm on ACC Network)

Right now, Syracuse is in line for the No. 14 seed based on its head-to-head victory over Cal. There are many scenarios in which the Orange could fall to the No. 15 seed, including the obvious one of a Syracuse loss to Virginia combined with a Cal win over Notre Dame, but also including a wild five-team tie between teams who finish 7-13; in that scenario, Syracuse comes out the worst with that No. 15 seed. Syracuse could move up to the No. 13 seed with a win over Virginia and with wins by Florida State, Cal, and Pitt.

15. California (6-13)

Final game: at Notre Dame (4pm on ACC Network)

Cal could rise as high as the No. 12 seed with a win over Notre Dame combined with wins by Pitt and SMU. In that scenario, Cal wins the three-team tiebreaker over Florida State and Notre Dame with its 2-0 record against those two teams. In most scenarios, the Golden Bears will finish as either the No. 14 seed or the No. 15 seed.

16. NC State (5-14)

Final game: at Miami (12pm on The CW Network)

Kevin Keatts saved his job when he led the Wolfpack to the Final Four last season. Now, his seat is once again scalding hot heading into the offseason as NC State followed up that semi-miraculous 2024 run with a very disappointing 2024-2025 season. The Wolfpack have already been mathematically eliminated from the ACC Tournament as they cannot possibly finish in the top 15 of the standings after Saturday's games.

17. Boston College (4-15)

Final game: at Pittsburgh (6pm on ACC Network)

It was reported this week that Earl Grant will return for a fifth season coaching at Boston College next year, but his seat will certainly be hot as his Eagles went from a 20-win campaign and an NIT bid to potentially finishing seven games below .500 overall and 4-16 in ACC play, while being one of three teams not participating in the ACC Tournament.

18. Miami (2-17)

Final game: vs. NC State (12pm on The CW Network)

Miami's season from hell comes to an end on Saturday. The Hurricanes will battle the Wolfpack in the "recent Final Four teams who have since fallen off a cliff" bowl on Saturday in Coral Gables and neither team will make the ACC Tournament or any postseason tournament for that matter. In many ways, the Jai Lucas era of Miami basketball has already begun.

Thanks for reading.

This article first appeared on Virginia Cavaliers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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