First Four betting preview
I always have mixed feelings about the First Four. The games are often very competitive, I just don't like teams that won their leagues having to fight for scraps that this stage of the NCAAs.
I also don't like power conference teams that had plenty of chances to prove they are worthy are getting "another shot." I feel like these games should be reserved for teams that won their league but lost in their conference tournament only. Or something like that.
Editorials aside, here is a quick look at the First Four:
First Four Best Bets
No. 16 Texas Southern Tigers vs. No. 16 Texas A&M Corpus Christie Islanders
Tigers -3.5
Texas Southern got some notoriety when they beat Florida out of the SEC earlier in the season. Now they have a chance to get back on folks' radar with their game against another team from Texas. The Tigers get the Islanders who got hot at the right moment after posting just a .500 record in the Southland Conference. The Southland and the SWAC (Texas Southern) were the worst-rated conferences in America so even though these teams earned their spots this is probably not going to be a pretty game to watch. The advanced metrics say the Tigers are the better team so that looks like the smarter play, though taking a pass might make sense too. You can skip some of these games if you want, remember.
No. 16 Wright State Raiders vs. No. 16 Bryant Bulldogs
Raiders -1.5
Wright State earns this spot with a 1 point win over Northern Kentucky in the Horizon League title game. The Raiders can compete in the Horizon but there is a good reason they are just a No. 16 seed. They do not have a particular strength but they are certainly a fair match for the Bulldogs so look for this one to be hotly contested. Bryant dominated in the Northeast Conference title game and they have only lost twice since December 8. It has been a nice run so you have to wonder how they will handle it if they have some adversity. Most of those wins have been of the dominant variety too. The Bulldogs are interesting. They don't have bigs but they also don't start any players under 6'4". This one is probably a coin-flip game so it makes sense to grab the value with the points as a small margin.
No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 12 Wyoming Cowboys
Hoosiers -4.5
The Cowboys had a very nice season but their profile was hurt by the fact that they did not do much outside of the Mountain West Conference. Their best win outside of the league was only against Washington and the Huskies were not very good this season. I want them to win against Indiana because I hate when these play-in games feature power conference teams playing against other (see below). Indiana forward Trayce Jackson-Davis is a nice player for Indiana but if he was elite the Hoosiers would not be in this spot. Indiana probably gets the win but I like the Cowboys to keep this one close enough.
No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 11 Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Pick'em
Notre Dame finished the season second in the ACC but still finds itself in the play-in game. That is a sign of how down the ACC is this season. The Irish are a quality team and they have quality wins, but Rutgers has proven to be a tough out all season. The question is whether they can come up with a strong game when they absolutely need it. Rutgers guard Ron Harper Jr. is one of the more underrated players nationally and capable of winning the game for the Scarlet Knights. Both of these teams have strong backcourts, but in the case of Rutgers they are not relying on a freshman. Rutgers does not go deep with its bench but they are one of the most experienced teams in the Tournament with three senior starters. Notre Dame might be under-seeded, but I still like the Scarlet Knights.
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