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ESPN Computer Model Predicts Winner of NCAA Tournament

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Chris Phelps | Last updated Mar 24, 2025 5:18 PM ET

With the first two rounds of the 2025 NCAA men's basketball tournament complete, we are down to the final 16 teams.

There weren't as many upsets as some fans would have hoped in the opening rounds. For the first time since 2017, no teams with No. 13-16 seeds won a game. It also marked the first time since 2007 that zero No. 11 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.

Arguably the biggest Cinderella story remaining is No. 10 seed Arkansas, which happens to be coached by John Calipari.

With the Sweet 16 around the corner, the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) updated its NCAA Tournament projections.

ESPN's computer model projects that the Final Four will consist of all No. 1 seeds, including the Auburn Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Florida Gators and Houston Cougars.

However, ESPN BPI has one team listed with the best chance to win the national championship, giving Duke a 26.7 percent chance.

The Blue Devils are one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning the ACC Tournament championship without their superstar freshman, Cooper Flagg. They were not kind to their first two NCAA Tournament opponents either, winning by a combined 67 points.

Sweet 16 power rankings from @TheAndyKatz #MarchMadness

1. Duke
2. Houston
3. Auburn
4. Florida
5. Michigan State
6. Maryland
7. Tennessee
8. Alabama
9. Kentucky
10. Arizona
11. Michigan
12. BYU
13. Texas Tech
14. Arkansas
15. Purdue
16. Ole Miss pic.twitter.com/ToDKto6zI9
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 24, 2025

Duke was also given the best chance to make the Final Four by ESPN BPI at 58.8 percent. Houston has the second-best odds to win the title at 22.0 percent but the third-best chance to make the Final Four at 57.4 percent, sitting right behind Auburn at 57.5 percent.

The team with the worst shot to make the Final Four and win it all, according to ESPN BPI, goes to Arkansas, with a 0.3 percent chance to walk away champions and a 6.9 percent chance to reach the semifinals.

The Blue Devils will continue their tournament run on Thursday, facing No. 4 seed Arizona in the Sweet 16 at 9:39 p.m. ET on CBS.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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