ESPN Computer Predicts Kentucky To Lose in Game Against Tennessee

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Angelo Guinhawa | Last updated Mar 26, 2025 7:11 AM ET

The Kentucky Wildcats are thriving under head coach Mark Pope, but despite their run to the Sweet 16, they aren't favored to advance further.

No. 3 Kentucky faces No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers at Lucas Oil Stadium on Friday. Despite the small difference in their rankings, though, ESPN's Matchup Predictor doesn't give the Wildcats much of a chance to win.

According to the ESPN computer, the Wildcats only have a 36.9 percent chance to win the showdown. In comparison, the Volunteers are given a 63.1 percent chance to take the victory.

What's interesting to note is that the Wildcats actually beat the Vols twice during the 2024-25 season.

In a Jan. 28 game, Kentucky took down Tennessee 78-73 behind a balanced offensive effort, with all five starters putting up double digits in scoring. Then, in their Feb. 11 clash, the Wildcats secured an 11-point win over the Vols, thanks to an efficient 12-of-24 shooting from deep.

The injuries to Kerr Kriisa (foot) and Jaxson Robinson (hand) don't help Kentucky's already low chance to defeat Tennessee. Robinson, in particular, was huge in their first win over the Vols, during which he recorded 17 points and four rebounds.

Koby Brea dropped 23 points in the second round of the NCAA Tournament against the Illinois Fighting Illini, so hopes are high that he can continue his hot scoring to help Kentucky when they play the Vols.

Tennessee, for its part, continues to dominate with its defense. The team had one of the best defensive ratings during the 2024-25 collegiate basketball season, and that showed during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament when they held their opponents to an average of 39 percent shooting.

Kentucky and Tennessee's showdown should be a tight one. And while the Vols are favored, it would certainly be wrong to simply write off the Wildcats.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: