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ESPN FPI Predicts the Winner of the College Football Playoff

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Spencer Ostrow | Last updated Nov 17, 2024 2:17 PM ET

Week 12 of the college football season saw plenty of action, with seven ranked teams suffering losses. Two of those teams were in the Top 12, delivering a blow to their College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes.

After the dust settled, ESPN released its updated Football Power Index (FPI) computer-based rankings, which also included changes to the national championship odds.

The Oregon Ducks, who remain undefeated and sit at No. 1 in the latest CFP rankings, do not have the best odds. In fact, they have the fifth highest chance to win it all at 7.3%.

No. 2 Ohio State finds itself in a situation similar to Oregon. Despite being ranked in the Top 2 in the CFP rankings, the FPI gives another team a better chance to win the title (Ohio State has a 16.5% chance).

After Week 10, the No. 3 Texas Longhorns weren't the FPI's top team and sat at 15.4%. Now, they've held the best odds to win the national championship for two straight weeks and are being given a 19.2% chance to do so.

The Longhorns pulled out a gritty 20-10 road win against Arkansas on Saturday, improving to 9-1 in its first season since transitioning from the Big 12 to the SEC. Texas’ only loss this year came in Week 7 against No. 12 Georgia.

The Longhorns have playmakers all over the field. Led by veteran quarterback Quinn Ewers, they have the fourth-most-talented roster in college football, according to 247 Sports.

Texas' 37.0 points per game rank 13th nationally, leading the country in the fewest yards allowed per game at 249.0.

They'll wrap up the regular season with a game against Kentucky, followed by a showdown with in-state rival and No. 15 Texas A&M. The two Texas schools haven’t faced off since 2011.

Here are the Top 5 teams with the best chance of winning the national championship, per the FPI: