Heisman Trophy bets to avoid

The futures markets for the Heisman Trophy can be interesting. You have to put up good numbers, but you also have to own a strong narrative to win the award.

Generally speaking, you need to be (a QB, RB or WR) on a very good team and be a significant part of their success. You also need a few moments where it is obvious that your play stands out and that you are not just the product of a particular offensive system.

Sometimes the winner might be a little unheralded, but it can never be a shock when the winner is somebody like a quarterback at Florida State, or the running back at USC, even if they might not have been heralded coming into the season.

Once you get past the first few names on the odds list the values spike significantly, so there is definitely some interesting bets to make on the Heisman Trophy right now...or not make.

Let's take a look at some names who I would be very surprised to see hoist the trophy in New York at the end of the season. Sometimes making the right bet is knowing what bet not to make. Here is a short list of players I would definitely take a pass on. 

DJ Uiagalelei +3000

Life without QB Trevor Lawrence was tough last year for Clemson. "DJU" has all the physical tools but just couldn't put it together last season, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns as the Tigers struggled offensively. The narrative of a comeback story is definitely there and Clemson should be really good, but I think he is going to be just good enough, not great.

There is a five-star backup behind him and Clemson is in flux again having lost their offensive coordinator to a head coaching gig, yet again. Clemson might be great but it feels unlikely that Uiagalelei will be the primary reason.

Quinn Ewers +4000

Ewers is back in Texas after "taking the money and running" to Ohio State last season. There is no shame in not being able to win the QB1 job from CJ Stroud at OSU, but it seemed like he wasn't even really in consideration which felt odd given his recruit status.

Now he is "back home" and that cleared out the QB room (although Hudson Card is still there). If he is what he is supposed to be, he should start and coach Steve Sarkisian should have a productive offense this season in Austin. The greatest challenge for Ewers this season is that Bijan Robinson is probably going to be the best RB in America. That is tough to outshine. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba +6000

Smith-Njigba was already having a breakthrough season last year before he torched Utah for more than 300 yards in the Rose Bowl. With Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave now in the NFL, the potential is there for even bigger numbers than last season as the top option in a great offense. 

The Ohio State narrative will keep him relevant but QB CJ Stroud (+200) is at the top of the Heisman odds table for a reason and it is going to be tough to lean in the direction of the receiver if both have great numbers. Not helping matters either is the fact that RB Treyveon Henderson is electric and is going to command attention too. He is +4000 in most markets. That is actually a better bet if you want to go OSU. 

Spencer Rattler +8000

Last year, Rattler started the season as the favorite for the Heisman. A couple of months later he was the backup for Oklahoma and a couple of months after that he transferred to South Carolina. His fall was pretty dramatic, but there is no reason to think he can't be an effective quarterback for the Gamecocks.

However, there is almost no expectation of South Carolina being more than a .500 team this season and it is going to be harder to post the numbers you need to stand out playing in the SEC. South Carolina has Georgia, Texas A&M and Clemson on their schedule. Those defenses are likely to be in the top 10 nationally. Even if Rattler is better than ever, he is going to be in a much tougher spot to show it.