Houston vs. Arizona Prediction

Arizona hosts Houston on Friday night for a key Big 12 matchup in Week 12 of the 2024 college football season. Not only is this is the first meeting between the Cougars and Wildcats as Big 12 members, but both teams are fighting to keep their bowl hopes alive.

Houston's hire of Willie Fritz was regarded as one of the best in the 2024 coaching carousel, but the team was in rebuild mode early and started 1-4. However, the Cougars have showed steady progress in recent weeks, winning three out of their last four games. Houston defeated TCU on Oct. 4 and followed up that victory with Big 12 wins against Utah and Kansas State to get to 4-5. If Fritz's squad can win on Friday, it would need a victory versus Baylor or BYU (road) in its final two weeks to get bowl eligible. 

Similar to Houston, Arizona also has a first-year coach (Brent Brennan). However, the Wildcats are trending in the wrong direction after a 3-1 start. Arizona enters Friday night on a five-game losing streak and suffered a 56-12 blowout at UCF on Nov. 2. The Wildcats need to win out - Houston, at TCU, and Arizona State - to get to a bowl and salvage a disappointing '24 debut for Brennan. 

Houston holds a 3-1 series edge over Arizona. The Cougars and Wildcats have not met in a regular season game since 2018.

Houston at Arizona

Location: Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Ariz.
Kickoff: Friday, Nov. 15 at 10:15 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Spread: Arizona -1
Over/Under: 46.5
Announcers: Trent Rush and Petros Papadakis 

Why Houston Will Win

Houston is still a work in progress under Fritz, but this team has made significant strides since an 0-2 start. Thanks to wins in three out of their last four games, the Cougars have a chance to get bowl eligible with two victories in the next three weeks. And with an off week to prepare for Arizona, Houston can make even more strides under Fritz's staff.

Defense leads the way for the Cougars, as this unit limits teams to 5.24 yards a snap and 22 points a game. This group has held four of their last five opponents to 20 or fewer points and ranks third in the Big 12 in third-down defense. Coordinator Shiel Wood's group is also No. 33 nationally in defensive success rate and No. 20 against the run. 

Houston's offense averages only 15.2 points a contest and 4.9 yards a snap, but this group won't have to churn out a ton of production on Friday night if the defense can control the pace of the game behind a high-powered offense.

When the Cougars have the ball, expect the ground game to lead the way behind running backs Re'Shaun Sanford II (300 yards), J'Marion Burnette (157), and Stacy Sneed (277). Also, quarterback Zeon Chriss (294 yards) is a key cog in the ground game, helping Fritz's attack win the time of possession and keep Arizona's offense on the sideline. In four victories this year, Houston averaged 198.3 rushing yards. In five losses, this team slipped to 102.2.

Chriss replaced Donovan Smith as Houston's starting quarterback in early October and has been instrumental in the recent uptick in Houston's play. Although Chriss isn't posting huge passing totals, he completed all 11 of his throws for 103 yards and a score in an upset win over Kansas State and has tossed only two picks in the last four games. However, Chriss has been a solid cog in the rushing attack, handling at least 10 carries (and generating a few big plays) in three out of the last four matchups.

Why Arizona Will Win

Arizona entered '24 with high expectations but is fighting just to get bowl eligible. Although this year hasn't gone as Brennan anticipated, the Wildcats still have a chance to get to the postseason. That motivation should help fuel Arizona on Friday night and play TCU (Nov. 23) and Arizona State (Nov. 30) for a chance to extend its season.

Houston's offense doesn't put up huge totals, so the Wildcats have a chance to jump ahead on the scoreboard and force the Cougars to play from behind. Arizona is averaging only 22.1 points a game, but the combination of quarterback Noah Fifita (2,324 yards and 13 touchdowns and receiver Tetairoa McMillan (63 catches for 1,066 yards) is a tough matchup.

In addition to the Fifita-McMillan combo, running backs Quali Conley (570 yards) and Kedrick Reescano (265) help power a ground game that averages 4.1 yards a carry. 

Arizona's defense has struggled in '24, giving up 31.1 points a game and 5.98 yards a snap. Injuries have hit this unit hard, but Houston's offense is only averaging 15.2 points a contest. So while the Wildcats have had issues on this side of the ball, the Cougars won't be one of the more explosive attacks Brennan's team has faced. Getting Houston into obvious passing downs is a must.

Final Analysis

Both teams still have plenty to play for with bowl eligibility up for grabs. Houston has the edge in momentum, but Arizona is at home with the better quarterback and offensive firepower. If the Wildcats jump ahead early and Fifita gets into a rhythm, the Cougars likely won't have the firepower to keep pace. However, Houston will win if its game features fewer possessions, and Fritz's team can control the pace with defense and rushing game. 

Prediction: Arizona 24, Houston 20