Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Prediction

The 2024-25 college football postseason continues on Monday, Dec. 23 with Northern Illinois and Fresno State meeting in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. This game takes place at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. This is the sixth meeting between the Huskies and Bulldogs on the gridiron.

Fresno State's 2024 season was surrounded in uncertainty after coach Jeff Tedford stepped down in July. The Bulldogs went 6-6 under interim coach Tim Skipper, losing four games by one score, including an eight-point defeat to Washington State and a seven-point loss to UCLA. USC assistant and former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz was hired as the team's new coach for '25.

Northern Illinois opened its '24 season with a bang. Coach Thomas Hammock's squad upset Notre Dame 16-14 in South Bend in Week 2 but was unable to hold onto that momentum in conference play. The Huskies finished with a solid 7-5 mark but lost four games (including three in MAC contests) by one score.

Fresno State is 14-12 in all-time bowl appearances. The Bulldogs have won five postseason games in a row. Northern Illinois is 5-10 in bowl treks and defeated Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl last year to snap a seven-game losing streak in postseason matchups.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Location: Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 23 at 2:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Northern Illinois -3.5
Over/Under: 39.5
Announcers: Lowell Galindo, Fozzy Whittaker, and Tori Petry 

Why Northern Illinois Will Win

Both teams are missing key pieces due to transfer, but Northern Illinois' roster is in better shape for Monday's game. 

Quarterback Ethan Hampton (157.2 total yards a game transferred), but backup Josh Holst (81 pass attempts) played in six contests this year. Additionally, the strength of the Huskies' offense is their ground attack, which meets a Fresno State defense that struggled to stop the run (No. 74 in success rate) this year. Running back Gavin Williams (741 yards) should see plenty of carries against a Bulldogs' front missing tackle Gavriel Lightfoot and linebacker Phoenix Jackson due to transfer. 

The Huskies led the MAC in fewest yards per play (4.63) and ranked second in points a game allowed (18.4). A couple of key defenders - safety Santana Banner, tackle Skyler Gill-Howard, and end Raishein Thomas - entered the portal. However, this unit still remains a tough matchup for a Fresno State team starting a backup quarterback and down a couple of weapons at receiver.

Why Fresno State Will Win

Transfers hit Fresno State's roster hard following the regular season finale, but Skipper and this staff still have enough talent on the roster to beat a shorthanded NIU squad.

With quarterback Mikey Keene in the portal, backups Joshua Wood and Jayden Mandal should see extended work under center. A veteran offensive line is also in place for the inexperienced signal-callers, with receiver Mac Dalena (58 catches) and running back Bryson Donelson (380 yards) also in the mix to provide support.

Fresno State's defense is also missing a couple of cogs, but this unit limited teams to 24.6 points a game in the regular season. With Northern Illinois playing without its top quarterback and No. 1 receiver, Skipper's defense should be able to do enough against the run game to get the Huskies in long-yardage downs.

Final Analysis

Don't expect many points in this one. Both teams averaged under 27 points a contest in the regular season and are missing a handful of players due to transfer movement on Monday afternoon. Additionally, the over/under sits at 39.5 - the lowest of bowl season. Considering the missing talent, a big play or two and the turnover battle could decide this one. 

Prediction: Northern Illinois 23, Fresno State 20