West Virginia vs. Memphis Prediction

The 2024-25 college football postseason continues on Tuesday, Dec. 17 with Memphis and West Virginia meeting in the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl. This game takes place at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas and is the first meeting on the gridiron between the Tigers and Mountaineers.

Memphis capped another solid season under coach Ryan Silverfield by defeating Tulane on Nov. 28 to finish 10-2 and post the first back-to-back campaigns of double-digit victories in school history. En route to 10 wins in '24, Silverfield's team beat Florida State (20-12) and (in addition to the one over the Green Wave) picked up solid wins in AAC play against South Florida and North Texas. With a victory, Memphis will earn the second-highest win total (11) in school history. 

West Virginia hopes to use the postseason to build some positive momentum after a 52-15 loss at Texas Tech in the team's last game (Nov. 30). That loss spelled the end of Neal Brown's tenure in Morgantown, with former coach Rich Rodriguez returning to direct the team in '25. Rodriguez won't be on the sidelines for this one, but the practices and game will provide insight into the roster and which players will fit the program's scheme next fall. 

Memphis has won its last three bowl games, while West Virginia is 2-1 in its last three trips to the postseason. 

West Virginia vs. Memphis

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Location: Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas
Kickoff: Tuesday, Dec. 17 at 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Memphis -4.5
Over/Under: 58.5
Announcers: Mike Monaco, Kirk Morrison, and Dawn Davenport 

Why Memphis Will Win

The high-powered offense of Memphis is likely to be too much for a West Virginia defense that struggled mightily against the pass in the regular season. Quarterback Seth Henigan threw for 3,208 yards and 23 touchdowns over 12 games and has passed for over 13,000 yards in his career with the Tigers. With Henigan leading the way, the Tigers averaged 6.1 yards a snap and finished second in the AAC in scoring (35.2 points a game).

Henigan has a strong group of playmakers at the skill spots at his disposal. Five players have caught at least 30 passes, including receivers Roc Taylor (61 catches for 834 yards), Demeer Blankumsee (41), and tight end Anthony Landphere (33). On the ground, running back Mario Anderson (1,292 yards and 17 touchdowns) shined after transferring in from South Carolina this offseason.

West Virginia's defense ranked No. 129 nationally in success rate against the pass and allowed opposing teams to average nine yards an attempt - the worst rate in the Big 12. Linebacker Josiah Trotter was one of the Mountaineers' top defenders but hit the portal after the regular season. Also, with a struggling pass rush (just 20 sacks in '24), Henigan should have ample time to throw and target open receivers downfield.

The Tigers also have an edge when the Mountaineers have the ball. The ground attack is the strength of West Virginia's offense, but Memphis ranks first in the AAC against the run and finished No. 27 nationally in success rate. The Tigers limit teams to 22.8 points a game and 5.7 yards a snap. 

Why West Virginia Will Win

Motivation is always a question mark for a team going through a coaching transition, but West Virginia shouldn't lack for energy on Tuesday night. Throughout the prep time for this matchup, interim coach Chad Scott has hammered the idea of finishing strong and to send a key senior class out with a victory.

If the Mountaineers are going to accomplish that goal, getting a ground attack that averaged 192.7 yards a game on track is a must. Memphis has been strong against the run this year, but Scott and the offensive staff should be able to scheme ways for running backs Jahiem White (817 yards), CJ Donaldson (651), and quarterback Garrett Greene (638) to move the ball. 

Playing ball control and winning the line of scrimmage is essential with West Virginia struggling on defense and likely to give up a few big plays to a high-powered Memphis passing attack.

The Tigers bring one of the AAC's better defenses to Frisco, but this unit was vulnerable (12 completions of 40-plus yards allowed) to big plays at times. Greene was banged up at the end of the regular season and the time off should help the senior get closer to 100 percent. In 10 appearances, Greene threw for 1,972 yards and 13 touchdowns. Receivers Hudson Clement (40 catches for 575 yards) and Justin Robinson (16) and tight end Kole Taylor (39) should be the top targets if Greene can land a big play or two downfield.

Considering West Virginia's struggles on defense this year, winning with a run-heavy approach on offense and limiting the possessions to protect that side of the ball is the best plan for Scott. 

Final Analysis

Memphis should have all of the motivation on Tuesday night to close out a memorable season with a victory to get to 11 wins. Also, it's the final chance for Henigan to suit up in a Memphis uniform against a defense that's been vulnerable all year. With an interim head coach and defensive coordinator, this is a tough draw for the Mountaineers. Unless West Virginia can win the style game, the Tigers are poised to pull away in the second half. 

Prediction: Memphis 34, West Virginia 24