2024 British Open best bets, expert PGA picks

Collin Morikawa -120 Over Bryson DeChambeau (bet365)

By Spencer Aquiar

I'm losing some of my implied probability advantage by going toward the top of the board since these star-vs-star matchups typically will go for four rounds. Nonetheless, I've noticed recently that a lot of the softest matchups are like this one where a golfer is being pushed too far up the board for one reason or another.

Bryson DeChambeau is the prime example of that here after dropping to 39th in my model for Expected Total Driving at Royal Troon following a projection that placed him inside the top six in Expected Total Driving during the opening three majors of the season.

The U.S. Open winner may get off to hot starts each day when he plays the short par-4 locations on the first six holes, but over the duration of four rounds, Morikawa's safety and high-end marks will outlast DeChambeau's more volatile nature.

Scottie Scheffler Top 5 +120 (DraftKings)

By Matt Gannon

I've been in Scotland over this last week, and after walking Royal Troon, I had one main takeaway: I’m not sure who can beat Scottie Scheffler over 72 holes at this golf course.

If there is a way to describe Scottie Scheffler in two words, those words would be “Positional Bomber.” That is the exact combination needed to thrive at Royal Troon because precision is required off the tee and into the very small greens while distance is imperative off the tee as well.

Scheffler is my early pick to win, but at the absolute minimum, I expect the Masters champion to finish in the top five. Not too long ago, we were talking about Scheffler winning a grand slam, and now he's catching plus-money on a placement bet.

Austin Eckroat Top 20 +700 (bet365)

By Tony Santori

At 25 years old, Austin Eckroat broke through with his first PGA Tour win at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches (formerly the Honda Classic) earlier this season. Including that performance, he has made the weekend in 11 of his past 14 tournaments, primarily due to his precise ball-striking.

He has gained strokes Approaching the Green in five consecutive tournaments and ranks 18th overall on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green.

However, he has also been in control of his driver as he has also remained more accurate off the tee than the field average in four of those five events, and he ranks 12th this season on Tour in Total Driving.

Not only is Eckroat capable of winning on Tour, but he has already shown that he's also capable of posting top-20 finishes at major championships. Eckroat finished in a tie for 18th at this year’s PGA Championship at Valhalla and tied for 10th at last year’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club, and his game is only continuing to improve.

2024 Open Championship Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Aguiar: Collin Morikawa +1700
• Gannon: Scottie Scheffler +550
• Sartori: Scottie Scheffler +550

Mid-Tier Golfer to Back

• Aguiar: Cameron Smith 50-1
• Gannon: Hideki Matsuyama 50-1
• Sartori: Corey Conners 80-1

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Best Long Shot

• Aguiar: Alex Noren 90-1
• Gannon: Akshay Bhatia 150-1
• Sartori: Rasmus Højgaard 175-1

Biggest Bust

• Aguiar: Brooks Koepka 45-1
• Gannon: Rory McIlroy +800
• Sartori: Rory McIlroy +800

Contrarian Player To Target

• Aguiar: Cameron Smith 50-1
• Gannon: Viktor Hovland 28-1
• Sartori: Alex Noren 90-1

LIV Golf Player To Target

• Aguiar: Tyrrell Hatton +2400
• Gannon: Jon Rahm +2400
• Sartori: Bryson DeChambeau +1700

Your Betting Strategy for The 152nd Open Championship

Aguiar: Nine holes at Royal Troon have brand-new tee boxes as about 200 yards have been added to the golf course since it last held The Open Championship in 2016.

That distance is noteworthy since thick rough and fairway bunkers are one of the course's best defenses against the bomb-and-gouge mentality of modern technology. Players will experience a true one-stroke penalty for wayward drives off the tee, including gorse bushes that can come into play if you miss to the wrong angle.

That will highlight the importance of finding the shortgrass, but it is not as if a fairway lie is always perfect, either. Undulation comes into play throughout Royal Troon's fairways to accentuate this strategic links-style approach of correctly traversing a course from a thinking man's perspective.

Gannon: This will be one of the least "linksy” Open Championships in recent memory because of Royal Troon's unusually small greens for a course in The Open rota. Consequently, ball-striking will be at an absolute premium this week as out of bounds, gorse and deep high grass lurk around the fairways.

The front nine of Royal Troon asks golfers very similar questions to TPC Sawgrass, while the back nine is similar to Torrey Pines. This is a very unique golf course and obviously has many links elements like wind, deep bunkers and luck!

At the end of the day, I believe this will be a positional and heavy ball-striking handicap.

Sartori: The Old Course at Royal Troon hosts The Open Championship this week for the first time since 2016.

Royal Troon is a par-71, 7,385-yard track located in Troon, Scotland. This course can play extremely difficult, with the front nine playing alongside a windy shoreline while the back nine features an abundance of difficult gorse bushes, rough and bunkers to navigate.

The name of the game this week is ball-striking, with an emphasis on both accuracy and distance.