2025 Valspar Championship: Odds, Best Bets, and Analysis

The Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida, concludes the PGA Tour’s Florida swing this week. With top players like Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Rory McIlroy absent, the field is wide open. Here’s a breakdown of the odds, best bets, and predictions for this year’s tournament.

Top Contenders at Valspar Championship

Even with some of the heavy hitters sitting out this week, some familiar faces sit atop the odds. For the first time in a while, we see three players as co-favorites heading into the tournaments. Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Shauffele, and Justin Thomas all sit at +1400 to win.

Fleetwood has been much more consistent out of that group. Fleetwood has been in excellent form all season. Even with no wins on tour in years, Fleetwood hasn’t finished outside the top 25 in months. His history at Copperhead includes a T16 in 2022 and a T3 in 2023, where he gained strokes across all categories.

You should proceed with caution with Thomas and Shauffele. Thomas has been struggling recently, finishing outside the top 30 in his last two starts. This comes even after tying the course record at TPC Sawgrass in round 2 last weekend. Shauffele is still getting back in his groove after missing months due to injury. After a lackluster showing at The Players Championship, the value in wagering on Shauffele isn’t there quite yet.

Valspar Championship: Best and Interesting Bets

Maybe the most popular bet for the championship is Sam Burns outright at +2200. Burns is a two-time Valspar champion winning back-to-back in 2021 and 2022. Notably, Sam Burns has a scoring average of 68.3 since 2021, reflecting his dominance. His recent run of form is cause for concern but there’s no doubt this is the event where Burns can turn it around.

Sepp Straka at +1600 is a value play when so many big names are taking the week off. Straka has been the face of consistency on tour this year. The Genesis is the only tournament all year in which Straka has not finished inside the top 30. Straka has also placed inside the top 15 in each of his last three tournaments. His strong play this season positions him as a serious contender at Copperhead.

If you’re someone who appreciates success on the course rather than recent form, Jordan Spieth is very interesting for the Valspar. Spieth has been very inconsistent this season. There has been no middle ground in his game so far. Spieth has two top 10 finishes while the rest of his finishes are outside the top 50. But as a former champion at the Valspar with the experience needed to win, at +3500 he is worth a consideration.

Course Overview

The Copperhead Course is known for its challenging layout, emphasizing driving accuracy and putting skills. The infamous “Snake Pit” finish tests even the most seasoned golfers. Key statistics to consider include strokes gained approach (SG: APP), strokes gained around the green (SG: ARG), proximity from 175+ yards, par-3 scoring, and par-5 scoring. Players excelling in these areas are likely to perform well.

Course history often plays a significant role at Copperhead. Notably, Sam Burns has a scoring average of 68.3 since 2021, reflecting his dominance. Other players with strong course histories include Xander Schauffele (68.6), Viktor Hovland (68.6), and Tommy Fleetwood (68.8).

Being one of the last PGA Tour events before The Masters is also a key point to consider. Many players in the field have yet to qualify for the tournament. Expect to see many players take risks they normally avoid to earn their invitation to Augusta in April. This could mean either end of the extremes for whoever you decide to put your money behind.