Braves GM expects payroll to rise next season

Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos conducted an end-of-season media session with reporters on Friday morning. Most notably, the GM indicated he expected player payroll to increase going into next year. A rising payroll doesn’t mean the Braves will be especially active in free agency as the club already has a lot of internal commitments.

“It’s gone up each year that I’ve been here,” Anthopoulos said (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “I know it’s not going to go down, I expect it to rise, but to what level, we’ll spend the offseason going through that. I view it Opening Day to Opening Day, because in-season things come up. … Is it a bottomless pit? Is it unlimited? Of course not. But every year we’ve set a new Braves high from a payroll standpoint. … We will be going up, I just can’t give you the amount.”

According to the calculations at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Braves entered the 2024 season with around $223M in player salaries. Their estimated luxury tax number was much higher. A team’s tax figure is calculated based on the average annual values of their contracts, leading to a higher tax number than raw payroll for an Atlanta team that has a lot of backloaded extensions. Cot’s estimated the Braves’ tax hit around $279M, though Anthopoulos confirmed shortly after the trade deadline that Atlanta was narrowly below the $277M threshold that marks the third tier of penalization. It’s the second straight year in which the Braves will pay the luxury tax.

The Braves seem prepared to go over the threshold for a third consecutive season in 2025. That’d entail paying a higher price for repeat payors. Atlanta would pay a 50 percent tax on their first $20M above next year’s $241M base threshold. That’d jump to 62 percent for the following $20M with further penalties if they pushed past the $281M mark.

According to RosterResource, the Braves already have around $180M in player salaries (not CBT obligations) on the books for 2025. They’re planning to exercise a trio of club options that’ll tack on another $31.25M. That puts the team at roughly $211.25M. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects their arbitration class to add roughly $10M more — assuming they tender Ramon Laureano and move on from Cavan Biggio. Rounding out the roster with minimum-salary players would put them close to last year’s estimated Opening Day payroll before accounting for outside acquisitions.

Anthopoulos and his staff could create some payroll room via trade. Jorge Soler is set for respective $13M salaries over the next two seasons. Soler hit well down the stretch when the Braves acquired him at the deadline to bolster a scuffling offense. He’s not an ideal fit on a roster that already has Marcell Ozuna locked in at designated hitter, though. Ronald Acuna Jr. should be back early in the season in right field. If the Braves retain Laureano for his final arbitration season, trading Soler and offloading at least a chunk of his contract would make sense.

At the same time, the Braves are going to need some kind of additions. They could lose Max Fried and A.J. Minter to free agency. Charlie Morton is also an impending free agent and might decide to retire. Getting Spencer Strider back midway through the year would help compensate for losing Fried, while the bullpen still looks strong even if Minter departs. Still, there’d be some questions about the rotation depth behind a strong front four of Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach and (once healthy) Strider.

Atlanta could look for an upgrade over Orlando Arcia at shortstop as well. A free-agent splash for Willy Adames would be out of character for a front office that has typically done its heavy lifting via trades and extensions. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post floated the Braves as a possible Adames landing spot earlier this week.) There aren’t many obvious shortstop trade candidates, particularly if the Blue Jays elect to hang onto Bo Bichette for his last year of club control. Anthopoulos and his staff have had a knack for pulling surprise trades over the years, though, making it difficult to pinpoint exactly where they’ll look.

One area that doesn’t seem it’ll have any turnover: the coaching staff. Manager Brian Snitker is under contract through the end of next season. The 68-year-old confirmed right after the team was eliminated in the NL wild-card series that he’ll continue managing (X link via Justin Toscano of the Journal-Constitution). Anthopoulos said on Friday morning that he expects the entire coaching staff to remain in place.