Sep 6, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Cincinnati Reds center fielder TJ Friedl (29) celebrates his two run home run against the New York Mets with left fielder Spencer Steer (7) during the seventh inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Cincinnati Reds Hit with Disappointing 2025 PECOTA Standings Projection

Originally posted on Cincinnati Reds on SI
By Greg Kuffner | Last updated Feb 4, 2025 6:59 AM ET

The annual PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus came out on Monday, which projected the Reds to finish in last place in the National League Central division with a simulated record of 73.5-88.5.

The projections give the Reds just a 1.5% chance of winning the division and a 4.9% chance to make the playoffs.

The Reds won 77 games in 2024 and finished fourth in the division, ahead of just the Pirates.

Despite adding backup catcher José Trevino, signing free-agent outfielder Austin Hays, and trading for Gavin Lux and Brady Singer, the projections remain unimpressed.

It's worth noting PECOTA had the 2022 Reds projected to win 79 games and the team won just 62 games that season.

You can see the full projections here.

This article first appeared on Cincinnati Reds on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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