ESPN Simulation Predicts MLB’s 2025 Home Run Leader

As of publication, the FanDuel Sportsbook set Schwarber’s home run over/under at 36.5 long balls. Schwarber also has the third-highest odds (+1000) to lead the majors in home runs, trailing only Aaron Judge (+270) and Shohei Ohtani (+480).

To be clear, Schoenfield himself didn’t project Schwarber to hit 60 homers. He merely shared what a video game predicted in one of 25 simulations.

However, 50-home run seasons are relatively rare, even in the modern era. Judge and Seattle Mariners legend Ken Griffey Jr. are the only 21st-century players not linked to performance-enhancing drugs with multiple 50-homer seasons—and Griffey’s two such years came in the 1990s.

Reminder: only six players in baseball history have hit at least 60 home runs in a season. Six of the nine 60-homer campaigns came from three players—Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa—from 1998 through 2001.

Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, and Judge had the other three 60-home run seasons. None repeated the feat, though Judge mashed 58 last year and is still in his prime.

Interestingly, Schwarber is the second player in recent days to warrant 60-home run consideration. Houston Astros utilityman  Mauricio Dubón predicted that top prospect Cam Smith would eventually join the exclusive club.

At least Schwarber has 284 career homers and six seasons with at least 30 bombs. Smith doesn’t even have an MLB hit yet.