Five key takeaways from latest 2025 MLB standings projection

With MLB spring training just weeks away, it's time for 2025 predictions.

To that end, the renowned organization Baseball Prospectus just released its PECOTA projections for the upcoming season.

"PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance."

So what did we learn from PECOTA's 2025 MLB standings projections? Here are five key takeaways.

1. The Dodgers are still the cream of the crop

Surprise, surprise. 

At a projected 104-59, the Los Angeles Dodgers are widely expected to be the best team in baseball in 2025 by a substantial margin. That adds up when you consider all the talent they've added, led by star Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki. 

2. The Guardians, Tigers and Royals all take a big step back in 2025.

Each of these three AL Central teams made the playoffs in 2024, with the Cleveland Guardians winning the division. But in 2025, Baseball Prospectus envisions some major regression for each of these clubs.

Cleveland clocks in with a projected 80-82 record after finishing 92-69 in 2024. Ditto the Detroit Tigers, who also project to finish under .500 at 79-83 after an 86-76 season a year ago. 

At least the Kansas City Royals get the benefit of a projected winning record at 82-80, but that's still a step down from their 86-76 record in 2024.

3. The Cubs and Brewers swap places in the NL Central division.

The Milwaukee Brewers shocked the baseball world in 2024 by winning 93 games and its division. However, Baseball Prospectus doesn't believe in the Brewers this season, projecting them to finish 80-82 in 2025.

Instead, the Chicago Cubs could be in the NL Central's driver's seat this season after finishing tied for second with the St. Louis Cardinals at 83-79. The Cubs are projected to finish with 91 wins in 2025, the third- highest total in the NL. 

4. The White Sox may not be the worst team in MLB this season.

Remember when the Chicago White Sox lost a historic 121 games last season? Well, good news: Baseball Prospectus doesn't foresee that same fate for the South Siders in 2025, as they're projected to lose exactly 100 games. In fact, that's not even the most projected losses in all of MLB: That distinction belongs to the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies sit at 107 projected losses in 2025, which means just 55 wins. That is straight up futility, not to mention easy fodder for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who play in the same division. 

5. The AL East division will be competitive in 2025.

The New York Yankees won 94 games and the AL East in 2024, making it as far as the World Series. Even after losing Juan Soto in free agency to the New York Mets, they're still firmly in the mix in 2025. 

Baseball Prospectus has the Yankees winning 90 games this season, though the competition is stiff. The Baltimore Orioles clock in with an 89-win projection, for example. And the Toronto Blue Jays more than hold their own with a projected 85-77 record. 

One surprise from the AL East projections, however? The Boston Red Sox finishing below .500 at 78-84 despite making improvements this winter.