Jonathan Aranda is the Rays Early-Season Standout

Under President of Baseball Operations Erik Neander, the Tampa Bay Rays have steadily maintained one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. Yet, they continue to be a competitive entity in one of baseball’s toughest divisions.

The Rays continue to navigate rostering a low-funded team with their excellence in player development. They regularly acquire players on the cheap, and turn them into contributors.

Yandy Diaz was acquired on the cheap in 2019 and has been a stalwart in their lineup for years. But, with Diaz’s impending free agency, the team knows that they may need a new face at first base in the near future.

Second baseman Brandon Lowe is another longtime Ray that may be on his way out after this season. The Rays need a makeover soon, and new players will have to step up in their stead.

Enter Jonathan Aranda.

Aranda, 26, was signed as an international free agent out of Mexico in 2015. As a prospect, he consistently hit for a good batting average with low strikeout rates.

Once he aged and filled out his frame, there came more power. In 2023, at 25, Aranda hit .339 with 25 home runs and a 164 wRC+ in Triple-A Durham. He had announced himself as a potential future impact player.

Aranda had a late-season audition in a regular role with the Rays in 2024, where he hit six home runs with a 113 wRC+ in 143 plate appearances.

This year, he has led the Rays in fWAR (0.9) as a strong-side platoon designated hitter. Let’s see what exactly has made Aranda so successful, and if he’s a good bet to continue as a strong producer.

What is Aranda Doing Well?

2025 Stats: 97 PA, .309/.412/.556, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 0 SB, 184 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR

Aranda has been punishing baseballs so far this season. By wRC+, he has been the sixth-best hitter in all of MLB – trailing just Aaron Judge (247), Pete Alonso (203), Marcell Ozuna (190), Fernando Tatis Jr. (189), and Cedric Mullins (185).

Just about every projection model forecasts Aranda to post a wRC+ of around 130 by season’s end, which would make him an All-Star level hitter at season’s close.

Aranda is filling a strong-side platoon role between first base and designated hitter admirably. Against right-handed pitchers this season, Aranda is slashing .338/.418/.632 in his 79 plate appearances.

As far as his batted-ball data goes, Aranda is second in all of baseball with a 64.5% hard-hit rate. His actual slugging percentage still resides below his ridiculous expected slugging (.629) and his .437 xwOBA is fifth-best among all major leaguers.

Aranda is walking at a well-above average clip (12.4%) and striking out at a forgivable 20.6% rate. He is not chasing pitches out of the zone often and making the most of it when the opposition challenges him with strikes.

While Aranda may not be quite as unbeatable if the Rays are forced to start him against lefties more often, he appears likely to be a valuable bat to a major league starting nine for the foreseeable future.

Reasons to Question Aranda’s All-Star Production

We know that Aranda is not the same quality against southpaws, but what else could be cause for general regression?

Something that immediately jumps out is that Aranda’s 70.4-mph bat speed is below the major league average. This is likely to limit his ability to post top-end exit velocities that many of the superstars in the game achieve and give them 30-home run power.

Having poor bat speed doesn’t mean that Aranda is certain to be an unproductive hitter. There are successful major leaguers with similar bat speeds in Trea Turner (70.1 mph) and Francisco Lindor (70.2 mph). However, there are other less successful major leaguers like Tyrone Taylor (70.4 mph) and Michael Massey (70.1 mph).

This bat speed isn’t low enough to seriously limit Aranda’s potential to be valuable, it just means it is probably a little more unlikely that he taps into big power than if he had above average bat speed.

Another reason to temper expectations a bit for Aranda is that his splits are noticeably better at his home ballpark, Steinbrenner Field, than when he is playing on the road.

Let’s take a look at some of these drastic home/road splits below.