MLB NRFI & YRFI Predictions for Thursday — 4/17

Both YRFI picks let us down yesterday, with multiple second inning runs in each game. We did hit the lone NRFI bet though, so the day wasn’t a total whiff.

Hopefully some of that variance swings back our way on Thursday, with two picks on the smaller slate.

Let’s dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Thursday.

MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — Thursday

Giants vs. Phillies NRFI/YRFI Prediction

Starting Pitchers: Jordan Hicks vs. Cristopher Sanchez

Jordan Hicks first made his mark in the major leagues as a closer before transitioning to the starting rotation.

Unsurprisingly, since becoming a starter, he’s done his best work early in games, with his overall ERA about a full run higher than his first-time-through-the-order ERA. Also, his xFIP has around a half-run discrepancy.

Cristopher Sanchez doesn’t have as extreme splits, but he’s still been slightly better early in games. He’s also a better overall pitcher, with a 3.32 ERA in 2024 that he’s slightly improved upon this year.

Plus, both teams are on the weaker side of their platoon splits offensively against the pitcher they’re facing.

Be sure to check the “Innings Tab” at Caesars, where there’s a slightly better line under “1st, 2nd, 3rd inning runs” than offered under the “Popular” tab.

Royals vs. Tigers NRFI/YRFI Prediction

Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen vs. Reese Olson

This game has an eight run total, but this is a matchup between two of the more top heavy batting lineups in the league.

Detroit’s projected lineup has three above average hitters by 2024 wRC+ at the top and none elsewhere in the lineup.

Of course, cleanup man Spencer Torkelson is off to a hot start this year (181 wRC+), which, if anything, helps the YRFI odds.

Kansas City has Bobby Witt Jr. leading the charge at the top, but has a generally solid first few hitters.

With neither pitcher being especially strong early in the game, that’s enough to push this one into YRFI territory.

Michael Lorenzen, in particular, has been more lucky than good — he had a 3.31 ERA last season, but his SIERA, xERA and xFIP marks were around 5.00. Look for some ERA regression on Thursday against his former team.