MLB NRFI & YRFI Predictions, Monday Picks — 4/21

After taking the weekend off for Easter, I’m back today. Only a few teams have Monday games, but I was still able to find some value.

I have two picks for this evening.

Let’s dive into my MLB NRFI/YRFI picks and model predictions for Monday.

MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — April 21, 2025

Padres vs. Tigers NRFI/YRFI Prediction

Starting Pitchers: Randy Vasquez vs. Keider Montero

The Padres come to Detroit and catch the bottom of the Tigers’ pitching rotation, with sophomore starter Keider Montero getting the ball on Monday.

Montero has a career 4.96 ERA, but his underlying numbers are slightly worse than that. He’s also not especially strong early in games, with a 4.70 first-time-through-the-order FIP.

That’s concerning against a lineup that has Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado at the top.

The Tigers also have a solid shot of cashing this bet, depending on which lineup they roll out. Detroit is frustratingly inconsistent with its lineup permutations, which is likely to worsen if Kerry Carpenter misses some time.

Still, Randy Vasquez is due for some major regression, with a 1.74 ERA this season but a 5.71 xERA. While there’s no guarantee regression hits in the first inning, the Tigers’ lineup is typically fairly top heavy.

Reds vs. Marlins NRFI/YRFI Prediction

Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo vs. Max Meyer

Nick Lodolo’s ERA and xFIP were both about a run lower his first time through the order compared to his overall mark last season, making him one of the better NRFI pitchers around.

That’s compounded against the Marlins, a relatively weak overall offense whose first four hitters all have worse numbers against lefties than righties, albeit with some small sample sizes.

Speaking of a small sample size, Max Meyer has just 17 career MLB starts. However, he’s been much better early in games, with a 2.87 ERA the first time through the order compared to a 4.97 overall mark.

With this game being played in Miami instead of Cincinnati, we also get a slight Park Factor upgrade for the pitchers, which helps the projection.

Perhaps most importantly, the -123 line at Caesars under the innings tab is well off the market, with FanDuel and DraftKings lining the NRFI at -140.

I’d play this down to -130, but I’ll obviously try to get the best line possible.