Reds Need Nick Martinez to Hit Stride Against Marlins

Except for his first start of the year, Martinez has struggled to pitch into the sixth inning, often pushing his pitch count too early. In every start, he has surrendered at least three runs and has struggled to keep runners off the bases. Martinez has also given up four home runs, including three in his last 11 innings. 

His four-seam fastball has been constantly beaten up on, giving up a .375 batting average when used. His other five pitches have produced modest results, although his hard hit rate has spiked from 30.5 a year ago to 41.8. Additionally, Martinez boasts a concerning 10.4% barrel rate, more than double that of 2024.

Unable to make it through a third time in the batting order is alarming for the Reds. With players due back from injury, prospects expected to emerge sooner rather than later, Martinez does not have all the time in the world to regain form. After all, there are countless options set to be available to the Reds in the coming weeks if Martinez needs to be replaced.

Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Brady Singer are all sure as locks to remain in the starting rotation throughout the year. Both Carson Spiers and Rhett Lowder will hopefully be back and healthy sometime in May. Andrew Abbott has been a rock so far, and the Reds hope he keeps his starting job as well. Not to mention, who knows how the rest of the season progresses as prospects such as Chase Burns, Chase Petty, and even Tyler Callihan could be ready for the majors as soon as this summer. 

At the same time, Nick Martinez does warrant more than four starts to figure things out. Used last season both as a starter (16 starts) and reliever (26 appearances), Martinez produced the best year of his career with a 3.10 ERA. With 4.0 wins above replacement in 2024, Martinez can still be a difference maker in what is already among the best rotations in baseball.

Even so, if the Reds truly plan on contending for the National League Central crown this season, they cannot afford to start Martinez if his struggles continue. Hitting stride in his next start tonight against the Marlins is step one to regaining his value. Otherwise, Martinez will face the reality of returning to the bullpen once others return healthy.