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Spencer Schwellenbach Has No Ceiling for the Braves

Originally posted on Just Baseball | By Taylor Greenhut | Last updated Apr 27, 2025 1:00 PM ET

There’s been plenty to worry about early in the 2025 season for the Atlanta Braves. As of the morning of April 25, the Braves are 10-14, dead last in the National League East standings, 7.5 games back.

One of the few bright spots of the year thus far has been the continued emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach.

Following a breakout second half of his rookie year, where he posted a 2.73 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts to just 13 walks, Schwellenbach has picked up right where he left off. Through five starts this season, he’s posted a 2.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts against just 5 walks.

Simply put, Schwellenbach has brought much-needed stability to a rotation that has only received one start from Spencer Strider and is currently watching Chris Sale pitch to a 6.17 ERA.

What’s most exciting, though, is that Schwellenbach still has plenty of room to grow.

For most of his baseball life, Schwellenbach was a two-way player, including winning the John Olerud Two-Way Player of the Year Award in college.

The Atlanta Braves took notice and selected him in the second round of the 2021 draft as a pitcher. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after being drafted, causing him to miss the entire 2022 season.

Ever since he has returned to the mound, all he has done is improve.

Schwellenbach’s Performance by Level

Level	GS	ERA	WHIP	H9	BB9	SO9
A	13	2.63	1.15	7.7	2.6	7.2
A+	9	2.36	0.88	5.9	2.0	9.5
AA	2	0.00	0.46	3.5	0.7	11.8
MLB	26	3.19	1.02	7.5	1.6	8.9

After just 24 starts in the minors, the Braves called Schwellenbach up to make his MLB debut on May 29, 2024. It took a few outings to get his footing, but by the end of the year, he had become arguably the most reliable arm in a rotation that included Max Fried and NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale.

Heading into 2025, Schwellenbach was a popular dark horse Cy Young candidate, and so far, he has backed that up.

Armed with a six-pitch mix, Schwellenbach has been consistently efficient, averaging just over six innings per start. He currently ranks in the 80th percentile or better in walk rate and chase rate.

What’s especially intriguing is that despite an improved ERA and WHIP, his underlying metrics have slightly regressed from last year.

Both Schwellenbach’s barrel rate (4.9% to 6.6%) and average exit velocity (87.6 mph to 89.0 mph) have ticked up. His strikeout rate (25.4% to 21.8%) and chase rate (34.2% to 33.3%) have both declined. Expected stats like xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA have also regressed from where they were during his rookie season.

For some, this may cause a slight panic. For the optimist in me, it could actually be a good thing.

It may suggest that Schwellenbach isn’t even at his best yet. That’s a scary thought for opposing teams to consider. BetMGM currently lists him tied for the fifth-best odds to win the NL Cy Young at +1100. As he settles in and continues to find his groove, it feels like the best is still to come.

The start to 2025 was disastrous for the Braves, but they’re slowly clawing their way out of the hole. The offense is finally waking up, and the pitching staff is showing signs of life, with Spencer Schwellenbach as its leader. Atlanta can’t afford any more missteps this season in a tough National League.

Stats, rankings, and percentiles updated prior to first pitch on April 25.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

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