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Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Terrible start exposes cracks in foundation for Braves

By Colin Cerniglia | Last updated Apr 1, 2025 1:40 PM ET

The long-term gamble by the Atlanta Braves on young talent is backfiring. An 0-5 start has exposed the risk of locking in players too early, leaving the team vulnerable to injuries, suspensions and sudden declines in performance.

No one is more central to this strategy than general manager Alex Anthopoulos. His aggressive approach to securing young talent on long-term deals was once hailed as visionary, ensuring cost control and stability. But now, as key players falter and roster flexibility shrinks, the cracks in that philosophy are showing.

As recently as 2024, Atlanta’s contract strategy was considered a model of efficiency. Senior MLB writer Hannah Keyser noted in October 2023, “The answer to why the Braves seem so formidable is that they have lots of really talented players locked up for years to come.”

But the problem with early extensions is that talent doesn’t always progress in a straight line.

Take outfielder Michael Harris II. His production has dipped after he burst onto the scene and earned an eight-year, $72M deal. His bWAR fell from 5.1 in 2022 to 3.2 in 2024, highlighting the gamble of projecting long-term value based on a small sample.

His comments after Monday's 6-0 loss to the Dodgers reflect the team’s predicament: “Basically, we just got to move forward. We’ve got to worry about the guys that we have and try to win games,” he told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.

But the issues don’t stop there. On Monday, right-handed pitcher Reynaldo Lopez landed on the 15-day IL with shoulder inflammation, further weakening an already- thin rotation.

Meanwhile, outfielder Jurickson Profar’s 80-game suspension for PED use only adds to the instability. Injuries have compounded the Braves’ struggles, with key players missing time and exposing the lack of reliable depth behind them.

Manager Brian Snitker, whose team plays the Dodgers again Tuesday in Los Angeles, remains optimistic publicly. “You have to put it behind you and look for positives,” he said, per Bowman. “Tomorrow is a new day and could be the start of a really good streak.”

The reality is less encouraging. The Braves’ payroll is tied up in players whose performance is slipping, making it difficult to adapt. Atlanta’s commitment to pre-arbitration extensions means they are locked into their core, whether it continues to produce or not.

Third baseman Austin Riley, first baseman Matt Olson and right-hander Spencer Strider were signed to ensure a dominant core, but early returns are mixed. Strider, once a key rotation piece, is recovering from elbow surgery. Olson’s slugging percentage plummeted from a league-leading .604 in 2023 to .457 in 2024, while catcher Sean Murphy’s offensive production has collapsed since his 2023 All-Star season.

Compounding the problem, outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. is sidelined with a torn ACL, leaving a massive void in the lineup and further testing the depth Atlanta once believed was a strength.

Second baseman Ozzie Albies, another early extension recipient, has experienced fluctuations in health and production, further illustrating the risks of projecting long-term value too soon.

The bigger issue? The farm system offers little relief. Ranked No. 26 by MLB.com, it lacks impact prospects to step in when stars struggle.

Future teams will likely need to strike a better balance. Just as the current economic model prevents teams from relying solely on free agents, the Braves may have shown that building an entire lineup around homegrown "affordable" talent carries its own risks, leading to too much inconsistency over time. The norm may continue to be team-friendly extensions for a select few — two to four key players — while rounding out the roster with a mix of pre-arbitration talent, unproven prospects, veteran free agents and waiver pickups.

FanGraphs slashed the Braves’ playoff odds from 92% on Opening Day to 78.8% after their brutal start. The warning signs are clear: Atlanta must adjust its strategy or risk being stuck with a roster built for stability but trending toward decline.

The front office bet on certainty — but baseball, as this season is proving, offers none. And without a pipeline of emerging talent or financial flexibility to course correct, the Braves’ path forward looks far more complicated than it did just a year ago.

Colin Cerniglia

Colin Cerniglia is an Amazon bestselling author, co-host of the "2 Jocks and a Schlub" podcast from Blue Wire, and a contributor to The Charlotte Observer. With a deep passion for baseball and college football, he offers extensive knowledge and enthusiasm to his writing. Colin resides in Charlotte, NC, with his wife and two daughters

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