The Chicago White Sox Are Stuck in Luis Robert Jr. Limbo

wOBA vs. xwOBA is a good measurement for when a player is due for some positive regression, and it’s one of the biggest reasons why I think Luis Robert Jr. actually improved this year.

wOBA is a stat that weights each way of reaching base in relation to run creation, so a home run is weighted more heavily than a triple, a triple more heavily than a double, and so forth.

xwOBA does the same thing, but instead of using what’s in the scorebook, it uses exit velocity and launch angle (and occasionally sprint speed). It assigns an expected result to each ball in play, and then uses the wOBA calculation. For example, if you hit a ball 110 mph with a 28-degree launch angle, it would be weighted like a home run, even if, say, a strong gust of wind kept it from leaving the field.

If a hitter runs an xwOBA that is higher than his wOBA, he could be due for some positive regression back to the mean, as he is hitting the ball hard but not seeing results. Remember that for later.

In 2023, the best season of Robert’s career, his xwOBA was .350, and he overperformed that number with a wOBA of .358.

Both numbers dipped mightily in 2024; he produced a .285 wOBA and .279 xwOBA. No surprise, as Robert’s contact quality took a step back compared to the year prior.

But in 2025, things look a bit different under the hood. A .289 wOBA doesn’t suggest much has changed, but an xwOBA of .330 raises some eyebrows. A hitter underperforming his xwOBA by over 40 points doesn’t happen often.

Fewer than 20 players in MLB this season have underperformed their xwOBA by a wider margin than Robert, which points to some pretty bad luck.

In fact, Robert is one of only two players in MLB with a wOBA under .295 with an xwOBA of .330 or better. I’d say that’s pretty unlucky.

Additionally, his contact and plate discipline numbers have ticked up in 2025. His chase rate is down by more than three percentage points, his walk rate is up by more than three percentage points, and he made contact on 3% more of his swings compared to 2024.

Although that might not seem like a huge step forward, contact and plate discipline have been key factors in his downward spiral, and any improvement in that area is a good sign.

Finally, he’s still swinging the bat as hard as ever, as Robert’s 75.6 mph average bat speed ranks in the 93rd percentile of big leaguers. Among center fielders, only Oneil Cruz, Jo Adell, and Julio Rodríguez can claim quicker bat speeds than Robert this year.

Pair that with 7 Outs Above Average and a 90th percentile sprint speed, and that’s the framework for an elite center fielder.

All of those things lend themselves to the idea that Robert will be on the White Sox next year, but what if the front office decides to part ways and go in a new direction?

Turning Over a New Leaf

In 2021, the White Sox won the AL Central with all the makings of a young core that could contend for years to come.

Four years later, Luis Robert Jr. is the only remaining player from that squad. What we’ve seen from this team is a far cry from the World Series aspirations that were in the air for White Sox fans and players alike.

There is something to be said about completely gutting the team, as that group was one of the biggest disappointments of the 21st century. The front office was overhauled in 2023, and countless hires have been made since then.

There is a case to be made for declining Robert’s option. Maybe he never recaptures his 2023 self or stays healthy for more than 120 games.

Those are both very valid points, and I can see the reasoning behind both of them.

It would also clear an outfield spot for the seemingly quick arrival of prospect Braden Montgomery, who has done nothing but hit since switching Sox in the Garrett Crochet deal. He could push for a roster spot out of spring training if Robert isn’t on the roster.

If the White Sox choose to move on from Robert, the final piece of that failed core will depart, and the new core of Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, Shane Smith and others will take center stage. And yet…

What I Would Do

In my mind, there are only two feasible options for the White Sox regarding Luis Robert Jr.: pick up the option and trade him in the winter, or pick up the option and keep him for the start of 2026.

I don’t see a world where Luis Robert Jr.’s $20 million club option isn’t exercised for 2026.

Does that mean that he will be on the team to start 2026? No, he could very easily be traded, but his recent hamstring injury doesn’t exactly boost his trade value for this upcoming winter. I do not envy Chris Getz and the tough decision he’ll have to make, as the White Sox would be trading Robert after the two worst offensive seasons of his career.

The other noteworthy thing to keep in your mind is the weak outfield market in this upcoming free agent class. Outside of Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger, you can make a case for Luis Robert Jr. as the best remaining outfield option for the White Sox.

So, if you’re absolutely not getting Tucker or Bellinger (reverse jinx attempt here, folks), why not keep him around? You can’t really piece together an outfield of Andrew Benintendi and Mike Tauchman without an elite defender in center field like Robert.

I would pick up Robert’s option and keep him around for the start of 2026. It’s a gamble, given his injury history and recent struggles at the plate, but as I said earlier, he could rebound in a big way in 2026.

He also seems to be a big part of some great clubhouse vibes for the White Sox after the All-Star break, which can’t be understated. For as quick as Robert’s White Sox tenure has felt, his five years of service time rank third most of any White Sox hitter on the active roster, only trailing Michael A. Taylor and Benintendi.

If you told me right now that Luis Robert Jr. would be a productive piece on the White Sox next year and take the field for 140 games, I could absolutely believe that. But if you told me that he once again couldn’t stave off the injury bug and couldn’t get into a groove at the plate, I would also believe you.

It’s a tough task, but I’m betting on the talents of La Pantera to come back in 2026.