Yankees, Cubs interested in Astros All-Star RF

Astros general manager Dana Brown left the door open Monday to trading outfielder Kyle Tucker or left-hander Framber Valdez this winter. On Tuesday, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported that the Yankees and Cubs are two clubs interested in Tucker.

The news isn’t shocking. Tucker is one of the best players in the league, and it would be more of a shock if any club weren’t interested in him. He is entering his final year of club control, which should eliminate teams in rebuild mode, but he should have broad interest apart from that. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Tucker for a $15.8M salary next year, a notable sum but still affordable for any team and a bargain for a player of Tucker’s talent level.

From 2021 to 2023, Tucker’s production was fairly consistent and trending upward. He hit 30 home runs in the first two of those seasons and then 29 in the third. His walk and strikeout rates each made slight improvements in that stretch. He drew free passes at a 9.3% clip in 2021, then 9.7% and 11.9% in the next two seasons, while his strikeout rate went from 15.9% to 15.6% and then 13.9%. His stolen base total went from 14 to 25 to 30.

In 2024, he missed significant time after fouling a ball off his leg and fracturing his shin. That injury limited his counting stats, but he continued to improve on a rate basis. Though his strikeout rate ticked back to 15.9%, he drew walks in 16.5% of his plate appearances. Despite only getting into 78 games, he launched another 23 home runs. His wRC+ was between 130 and 146 over his previous three seasons but jumped to 180 in 2024.

He’s also been graded as a strong defender and, as mentioned, can steal a few bases. FanGraphs graded him as worth either 4.9 or 5.0 wins above replacement in three seasons from 2021 to 2023, and Tucker was worth 4.2 fWAR in 2024, even though he played less than half a season. That’s 19.1 fWAR over the past four years, placing him in 13th among all position players. Thanks to his shin injury, all 12 guys ahead of him on that list played in more games.

There are some rough parallels here with the situation of Juan Soto from a year ago. The Padres were willing to make Soto’s final year of club control available on the trade market to walk a tightrope. They wanted to continue competing but had a tight budget and several players they had difficulty trading due to contractual reasons. Moving Soto freed up a huge amount of payroll space and brought back immediate help in other areas, as the Friars got a package of players that included Michael King and Drew Thorpe, later flipping Thorpe to get Dylan Cease.

The Astros are in a somewhat similar spot now. Brown previously said that the club might have to get creative with money this offseason, even though they still want to win next year. Players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have big contracts but are franchise cornerstones. Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly each have the right to veto any trades. Lance McCullers Jr. can’t be easily moved due to his health status.

They don’t have to consider a trade, but they will pick up the phone and see if any club blows them away with a Soto-like package. Tucker’s track record isn’t quite as good as Soto’s, but Soto was projected to earn a $33M salary in 2024, more than double what Tucker is slated to earn next year.

It’s theoretically possible they can get a package of young talent they like while freeing up some payroll space to re-sign Alex Bregman since Brown and owner Jim Crane have marked that as the club’s top priority. That would leave the Houston outfield consisting of Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubón, though they may get some cheaper outfield help back in the trade.

The Yankees, of course, wanted to re-sign Soto as a free agent, but he is now going to become a Met. That leaves the Yanks with a big hole in their outfield, and they must pivot to other possibilities. The free agent market features guys like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández, while the Yankees have been connected to trade candidate Cody Bellinger. Tucker would be a more attractive option than any of those three in a vacuum, but a deal coming together would naturally depend on what it would take for the Astros to let him go.

The Yankees still have Aaron Judge as their outfield anchor and might move him back to right field for the post-Soto era, with Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham options for center. Tucker is strong in right field, so the Yanks might consider moving him to left. Due to the short porch in right, there’s more grass to cover in left field, making defense over there more of a concern.

There shouldn’t be any financial issue, as the Yankees reportedly offered Soto $760M over 16 years, an average annual value of $47.5M. They will now be looking to spread that money around to other players and Tucker is only projected to get about a third of that.

The Cubs already have a crowded outfield picture but want to shake it up. Bellinger has been in many rumors this winter, and Seiya Suzuki’s name has also come up. In Bellinger’s case, trading either is complicated due to his upcoming out-out, while Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. Those two project to be in an outfield group that also includes Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, as well as youngsters like Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. Happ also has a no-trade clause, and the Cubs probably want to hang onto the younger guys. Each of Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger perhaps departing a year earlier than that.

As mentioned, every contender should call the Astros to get a sense of the asking price. There are no guarantees that he can be obtained, but even the possibility that he’s available makes him one of the most interesting names to watch in the coming weeks.