5 Big Predictions for the NBA Playoffs

Finally the NBA has clarity on its playoff and play-in tournament seedings following a frenetic final day of the regular season.

Filling out that bracket, however, seems just as difficult as projecting all of the different playoff scenarios. With both conferences featuring teams with razor-thin margins, the NBA postseason projected various possibilities all the way through game No. 82.

That won’t stop me from anticipating how the next two months pan out. Below are five major predictions for the NBA playoffs.

Warriors will win in play-in tournament, first round

The Warriors are kicking themselves for wilting in crunch time this past week against the San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Clippers. But dismiss the Warriors at your own peril.

With the NBA’s all-time best shooter, (Stephen Curry), a key trade deadline acquisition (Jimmy Butler) and a Defensive Player of the Year candidate (Draymond Green), the seventh-seeded Warriors can still go on a deep playoff push. They will easily dispatch the No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies in Tuesday’s play-in game (10 p.m. ET on TNT). The Warriors will also upset the No. 2 Houston Rockets in the first round (series begins Sunday).

Memphis and Houston surely would like a word. Grizzlies guard Ja Morant has played at an elite level since returning 2 1/2 weeks ago following a five-game absence to heal his left hamstring (29.5 points, 5.7 assists per game during that span). The Rockets secured the No. 2 seed because they have a mix of proven veterans (Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks) and young players (Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr.) to form an elite defense that ranks sixth in points allowed (109.6) and defensive field-goal percentage (.459).

No matter. Though Golden State has gone 0-3 in play-in games, the Warriors have gone 3-1 against the Grizzlies this season. While the Grizzlies could become vulnerable with a late-season coaching change, the Warriors could remain valuable with a strong mix of championship experience, star power and depth.

The Rockets aren’t likely to be overwhelmed in the playoffs since they have both a key veteran (VanVleet) and head coach (Ime Udoka) that have been in the NBA Finals. But Houston collectively doesn’t have enough continuity to threaten a Warriors team that only needed Butler to rejoin the NBA title-contending conversation. Despite the Warriors’ late-season slide, they have developed a balanced offense featuring a blend of Curry’s 3s and Butler’s midrange shots. Meanwhile, Green and Jonathan Kuminga have increased their defensive presence.

The Eastern Conference playoffs will be all chalk in first, second rounds

The Western Conference landscape seemingly changed by the day toward the end of the regular season, whereas the Eastern Conference landscape mostly stayed sturdy. While the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics took turns showcasing their championship potential, other playoff contenders either nursed significant injuries (New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks) or played inconsistently (Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat).

Neither the No. 1 Cavaliers nor the No. 2 Celtics felt seriously threatened this season. That shouldn’t change in the playoffs. The Cavaliers and Celtics have almost a week before finding out whether they will play the No. 7 Magic, No. 8 Hawks, No. 9 Bulls or No. 10 Heat in the first round. Expect the Cavaliers and Celtics either to sweep or eliminate their opponent in five games.

It appears unlikely that Cleveland or Boston will feel threatened in the second round, either. The No. 3 Knicks also should breeze past the young Detroit Pistons with a healthy Jalen Brunson. But New York has struggled this season against Boston (0-4) and Cleveland (0-4).

The No. 5 Bucks have an eight-game winning streak. It would be surprising, though, if that’s enough against an Indiana Pacers team that took the No. 4 seed after winning 13 of their past 16 games. Although the Bucks haven’t ruled Damian Lillard out of the playoffs, most players need at least three months to recover from a blood clot. That likely leaves Milwaukee without a star point guard who can cancel out Tyrese Haliburton’s production. Neither the Pacers nor the Bucks have enough depth and consistency to threaten the Cavaliers or Celtics, either.

LeBron James, Luka Dončić will produce playoff magic, but it won’t be enough for NBA title run

The Lakers have enough ingredients to make a deep playoff push.

The 40-year-old James has appeared reasonably healthy since missing seven games last month to treat a left groin injury. The 26-year-old Dončić has shown that the Dallas Mavericks’ concerns about his conditioning were way overblown. Both of the Lakers’ stars have demonstrated they can coexist perfectly with Dončić as the lead playmaker while James has stayed efficient with a reduced workload. The Lakers also have another future All-Star (Austin Reaves) and a handful of role players who can make clutch shots (Gabe Vincent, Dorian Finney-Smith, Rui Hachimura).

That should become enough for the No. 3 Lakers to advance past the No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round. But what about beyond? If they face the No. 2 Rockets in the second round? The Lakers have shown they can dice through Houston’s sturdy defense with their offensive depth. If the Lakers face the Warriors in the second round? Different story. Though the Lakers have gone 3-1 against the Warriors in the regular season, the Lakers’ defense wouldn’t hold up in a seven-game series against Golden State.

It would become too overwhelming for the Lakers’ perimeter defenders to account for both Curry and Butler without leaving either open to produce easy baskets. After trading Anthony Davis to Dallas, the Lakers surprisingly have become an elite defensive team with a resurgent Jaxson Hayes, a steady Jarred Vanderbilt and a handful of strong perimeter defenders (Vincent, Hachimura). But the Warriors have more defensive depth with Green, Kuminga, Kevon Looney and Gary Payton II.

If the Lakers advance past the second round against either Houston or Golden State, it appears unlikely they could replicate the same formula against Oklahoma City. The Thunder have stayed dominant this season with their MVP candidate (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), three strong wing defenders (Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Jaylen Williams) and dependable frontcourt screening and defense (Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein). The Lakers played well enough to win one out of three regular-season games against them. But the Thunder have enough depth and experience to make adjustments.

Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard finally will stay healthy

For the first time since joining the Clippers five years ago, Leonard enters the NBA playoffs almost fully healthy. Leonard recently played in his first games on back-to-back days. He didn’t play on a minutes restriction in March (36.3 minutes per game) or April (33.6). And he hasn’t sat for a significant stretch of time since missing the first 34 games of the season to address his right knee inflammation.

Not surprisingly, the Clippers have guarded their optimism considering Leonard’s extensive injury history. He missed the entire 2021-22 season after tearing the ACL in his right knee in the second round of the 2021 playoffs. Leonard then nursed more injuries in first-round losses to Phoenix in 2023 (torn meniscus in right knee) and to Dallas in 2024 (right knee inflammation). Nonetheless, Leonard has dealt with different circumstances this season.

Leonard missed the final eight games of the 2023-24 season and Game 1 against Dallas before returning in limited fashion. In the 2022-23 season, Leonard had missed 22 games for maintenance on his right knee and an additional six to treat a sprained right ankle only to have more issues with his right knee in the playoffs.

No one can discount Leonard from experiencing more bad fortune when the No. 4 Clippers play the No. 5 Denver Nuggets beginning on Saturday. But Leonard only nursed a major injury at the beginning of the season before completing a gradual ramp-up nearly halfway into the 2024-25 campaign and beyond. In other seasons, the Clippers either limited Leonard’s workload through the entire season (2019-20, 2020-21) or managed a late-season injury (2022-23, 2023-24).

The Celtics will defend their NBA championship, but it won’t be easy

The Celtics can become the first NBA team to win a second consecutive championship since the Warriors did so in 2018. Boston has retained most of its championship core among its stars (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Holiday) and role players (Derrick White, Peyton Pritchard). Boston has sparked mixed reactions for leading the league in 3-point attempts (48.3) while ranking 10th in 3-point shooting (36.8%). But the Celtics have become an elite defensive team by finishing second in points allowed (107.2).

Though Brown, Porziņģis and Holiday have nursed various injuries, the Celtics had enough depth to endure them.

So as predicted, the Celtics won’t face much turbulence in the first and second round. It could be a different story in the Eastern Conference finals, though. The Cavaliers secured the No. 1 seed with first-year head coach Kenny Atkinson overseeing a prolific and balanced offense between its backcourt (Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland) and frontcourt (Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen). Cleveland also remains a tough defensive team with Mobley and Allen as strong rim protectors. Nonetheless, the Celtics should beat Cleveland even if it takes seven games. The Celtics have shown they can overcome Tatum having an occasional off night than the Cavaliers can with Mitchell. Despite acquiring De’Andre Hunter before the trade deadline, the Cavaliers don’t have as much defensive wing depth as the Celtics.

The Thunder have a chance to dethrone the Celtics after winning both of their regular-season matchups. Assuming the Celtics don’t have any major injuries, however, Boston still has more depth and experience than the Thunder. The Celtics also should have an easier pathway to the NBA Finals than the Thunder.