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The full odds are locked in for the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery, and the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets all share the best chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick — each sitting with 14.0% odds.
Utah holds the tiebreaker over Washington and Charlotte, giving them the edge if none of those teams land in the top four. New Orleans owns the fourth-best odds, while Philadelphia rounds out the top five — but with a major caveat: the Sixers’ pick is headed to the Thunder if it falls outside the top six. That could have massive implications on lottery night.
Brooklyn, Toronto, and San Antonio follow, with the Spurs still owning Atlanta’s pick—currently slotted at No. 14 — as long as it doesn’t jump into the top 10. Phoenix’s pick, which lands in the ninth slot, is already on its way to Brooklyn. Same goes for Sacramento’s pick, which conveys to the Hawks if it stays outside the top 12.
All eyes will be on how the ping-pong balls fall, with several picks potentially changing hands based on protections. The lottery will be held Sunday, May 12, live on ESPN.
You can find the full odds breakdown below, including probabilities for each of the 14 slots.
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 | #13 | #14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Wizards | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 27.8 | 20.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Hornets | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 14.8 | 26.0 | 7.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Pelicans | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.8 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sixers* | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | |
| Nets | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – | |
| Raptors | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – | – | |
| Spurs | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.0 | 6.8 | 0.4 | >0 | – | |
| Suns* | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.9 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 28.3 | 3.5 | 0.1 | >0 | |
| Blazers | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | – | – | – | – | – | 63.4 | 18.5 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| Mavericks | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 13.5 | 0.5 | >0 |
| Bulls | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 85.2 | 6.6 | 0.1 |
| Kings* | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 3.3 |
| Hawks* | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 96.6 |
Notes:
* Sixers’ pick goes to the Thunder if outside top 6
* Suns’ pick goes to the Nets
* Kings’ pick goes to the Hawks if outside top 12
* Hawks’ pick goes to the Spurs
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