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NBA prop bets for Friday's playoff action
Will Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo be a beast on the boards again in Game 3 against the Bulls? Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

NBA prop bets for Friday's playoff action

We continue to circle the right spots here in the NBA, so let's turn our attention to the three Round 1 games on Friday evening.

We've got three Game 3s Friday in the Heat vs. Hawks, Bucks vs. Bulls and Suns vs. Pelicans.

The story of these games is mostly injuries: Milwaukee is without Khris Middleton and Phoenix must continue on without Devin Booker. This opens up some new angles to look at props from. Here's one player prop for each game Friday night.

Banking on John Collins's increasing involvement

John Collins returned at the beginning of this series against Miami after a month-long absence, and his minutes tell the story of a guy being eased back into action.

In Game 1, Collins played just 20 minutes. In Game 2, that increased to 29 minutes. His field goal attempts also increased from six in Game 1 to 11 in Game 2.

The hope here is that in a must-win Game 3, Collins exceeds 30 minutes played as he's gotten back into the flow of the offense.

With that expectation in our pocket, Collins's potential for scoring increases quite a bit. His over/under in this game is set at 14.5, a total he has not yet reached in this series.

However, he hadn't had a full workload. Collins has played for 30+ minutes in 36 games this season. When he does, he goes over this 14.5 mark at a 72% rate.

In the three previous meetings against Miami this year, Collins went over 14.5 all three times. This has some projections to it, in the sense we don't 100% know if his role will continue to grow, but it feels like a reasonable expectation.

Betting: John Collins over 14.5 points (+100 DK)

Time for Giannis to exert his will

Khris Middleton is now out for Milwaukee, meaning that if the Bucks want to climb out of this 1-1 series tie and extend their postseason run, Giannis Antetokounmpo needs to step up.

I'm not so much talking about his points as I am his defensive and rebounding abilities. 

I like Giannis to continue hauling down boards Friday against Chicago. In the last six games without Middleton, Antetokounmpo has finished with 15 or more rebounds five times.

Against the Bulls, Giannis has 16 and 18 rebounds in these two playoff games, and has gone for 16+ boards in four of the past five meetings between these two teams.

Betting: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 13.5 rebounds (-134 FD)

Who steps up without Booker?

Devin Booker is out for a few weeks, a blow to Phoenix for sure. I still think they're in a good spot against New Orleans in Round 1, and there is value to be found elsewhere on the Suns roster.

Poking around to see who has scored more without Booker in the lineup, the arrow squarely points to Jae Crowder.

In the past 15 games without Booker in the lineup, Crowder has scored 10+ points in 12 of them, good for an 80% hit-rate. He's averaging 13.4 across that stretch of games.

Crowder hasn't done much scoring in this series yet, totaling 6 points in the first two games. He did get off 11 attempts from the field in Game 2 and is on the court for nearly 30 minutes a game.

Someone needs to step up without Booker, and Crowder has shown an ability to do it before. I like him to do it again.

Betting: Jae Crowder over 9.5 points (-122 FD)

Enjoy the NBA Friday night!

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. 

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